review of is-lm - isaac baley · review of is-lm closed economy ... the lm equation: equilibrium in...

Review of IS-LM Closed Economy

Macroeconomics I 22104, Fall 2017Isaac Baley

Long-, medium-, and short-run

Long-run What affects the trend?

Short-run Temporary deviations from trend - Expansions and contractions

Medium-run When economy is at the trend - We normalize trend to a constant - Call it “natural level” of Y or Yn

• A tool to think about short-run economic fluctuations

✴ Short run = Prices are fixed

✴ The IS equation: equilibrium in the goods market

✴ The LM equation: equilibrium in the financial market

✴ Together, determine GDP (Y) and interest rate (i)

• Study effects of fiscal and monetary policy choices

A formal framework: IS-LM Model

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Output (Value of Final Goods

and Services Produced)

Income (Value of payments to

labor, capital and profits)

=Y ≡

IS Equation: Equilibrium in Goods Market

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Output (Value of Final Goods

and Services Produced)

Income (Value of payments to

labor, capital and profits)

=Y ≡

IS Equation: Equilibrium in Goods Market

Demand for Goods (Z)

Z =C Y −T( )+ I Y,i( )+G

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Output (Value of Final Goods

and Services Produced)

Income (Value of payments to

labor, capital and profits)

=Y ≡

IS Equation: Equilibrium in Goods Market

Demand for Goods (Z)

Z =C Y −T( )+ I Y,i( )+G

Private Consumption (depends on after-tax income)

(+)

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Output (Value of Final Goods

and Services Produced)

Income (Value of payments to

labor, capital and profits)

=Y ≡

IS Equation: Equilibrium in Goods Market

Demand for Goods (Z)

Z =C Y −T( )+ I Y,i( )+G

Investment (depends on income and interest rate)

(+, -)

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Output (Value of Final Goods

and Services Produced)

Income (Value of payments to

labor, capital and profits)

=Y ≡

IS Equation: Equilibrium in Goods Market

Demand for Goods (Z)

Z =C Y −T( )+ I Y,i( )+G

Government Expenditure

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Output (Value of Final Goods

and Services Produced)

Income (Value of payments to

labor, capital and profits)

=Y ≡

IS Equation: Equilibrium in Goods Market

Demand for Goods (Z)

Z =C Y −T( )+ I Y,i( )+G

Equilibrium in Market for Goods (Demand = Production) Z =Y

( ) ( ),Y C Y T I Y i G= − + +IS CURVE:

( ) ( ): ,ZZ Z C Y T I Y i G= − + +

A: (Y,i )

IS Equation: Equilibrium in Goods Market

( ) ( ): ,ZZ Z C Y T I Y i G= − + +

( ) ( )' : , ' 'ZZ Z C Y T I Y i G i i= − + + >

A: (Y,i ) A' : (Y ',i ')

IS Equation: Equilibrium in Goods Market

( ) ( ): ,ZZ Z C Y T I Y i G= − + +

( ) ( )' : , ' 'ZZ Z C Y T I Y i G i i= − + + >

A: (Y,i ) A' : (Y ',i ')

IS Equation: Equilibrium in Goods Market

In the GOODS market, there is a NEGATIVE relationship between

OUTPUT and INTEREST RATE

Supply of Money (by the Central Bank)

Demand for Money

SM

( )dM PYL i=

( ): Price Level : Real Income : Liquidity PreferenceP Y L i

LM Equation: Equilibrium in Financial Market

Supply of Money (by the Central Bank)

Demand for Money

SM

( )dM PYL i=

( ): Price Level : Real Income : Liquidity PreferenceP Y L i

LM Equation: Equilibrium in Financial Market

Key assumption: Prices are constant in the Short-Run (but NOT in the transition to the Medium-Run)

Supply of Money (by the Central Bank)

Demand for Money

SM

( )dM PYL i=

( ): Price Level : Real Income : Liquidity PreferenceP Y L i

LM Equation: Equilibrium in Financial Market

i : Interest Rate Opportunity cost of holding money rather than Bonds

Supply of Money (by the Central Bank)

Demand for Money

SM

( )dM PYL i=

( ): Price Level : Real Income : Liquidity PreferenceP Y L i

LM Equation: Equilibrium in Financial Market

Equilibrium in Market for Money (Demand = Supply)

d SM M=

( )M PYL i= ( )or M YL iP=

( ):d

d MM YL iP

=

:S dM MAP P

=

( ): d

d MM Y L i Y YP

ʹ ʹ ʹ= >

:S dM MAP P

ʹʹ =

LM Equation: Equilibrium in Financial Market

( ):d

d MM YL iP

=

:S dM MAP P

=

( ): d

d MM Y L i Y YP

ʹ ʹ ʹ= >

:S dM MAP P

ʹʹ =

LM Equation: Equilibrium in Financial Market

In the MONEY market, there is a POSITIVE

relationship between OUTPUT and INTEREST RATE

( ) ( ),Y C Y T I Y i G= − + +

MP=YL i()

IS-LM Model Joint equilibrium in Goods Market and Financial Market

Point A: Income Y and interest rate i at which both the market for goods and the market for money are in equilibrium.

( ) ( ),Y C Y T I Y i G= − + +

MP=YL i()

IS-LM Model Joint equilibrium in Goods Market and Financial Market

( ) ( ),Y C Y T I Y i G= − + +

MP=YL i()

IS-LM Model Joint equilibrium in Goods Market and Financial Market

Important Distinction: movements along a curve VS. shifts of a curve

Y, i M, T, G, P, C0, I0

Short-Run Medium-Run

Fiscal:

Monetary:

Very Powerful

M ↑⇒Y↑, r ↓

- No effect on Y - Only on r and PG↑⇒Y↑, r ↑

Fiscal and Monetary Policy Closed Economy

Very Powerful - No effect on Y and r - Only on P

Short-Run Medium-Run

Fiscal:

Monetary:

Very Powerful

M ↑⇒Y↑, r ↓

- No effect on Y - Only on r and PG↑⇒Y↑, r ↑

Fiscal and Monetary Policy Closed Economy

Very Powerful - No effect on Y and r - Only on P

Q2

Q3

Fiscal austerity + Monetary expansion

Consumer confidence