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Reut Methodology Day
Relevancy Gaps
Closing Relevancy Gaps
Identifying Relevancy Gaps
Why Relevancy Gaps aren’t closed
How Relevancy Gaps form
MindsetDivergent
Reality
How Societies choose to Fail or Succeed
Hostile NeighborsDecreased support from Friends
Climate Change Environmental Damage
How Society Responds to Problems
The Case of the Greenland Norse
Climate Change: Little Ice Age
Hostile Neighbors: The Innuit
Arrive 1000 CE; Disappear 1450
Approx 5,000 people in 2 Settlements
Communal, violent hierarchical & conservative
More European than Europe
Trade Disengagement from Europe
Environmental Damage
Inability to Adapt
Why Societies CollapseDon’t Anticipate
No prior experience
Reason by false analogy
Don’t Perceive
Distant Managers
Some problems imperceptible
Slow Trend Concealed
Don’t Attempt to Solve
Status Quo supports deeply held value
Rational Bad Behavior
Group Denial (Work Avoidance)
Dislike those who complain
Don’t Solve (Perceive & Attempt)
Efforts too little too late
Solution exists but unviable
Beyond present capacity to solve
Preventing Predictable Surprises
Problem Appears
Worsens
Significant Costs to Solving(Benefits delayed)
Tendency to Maintain Status Quo
Vocal Minority vs. ChangeDefinite cost in present;
uncertain future cost
Cognitive
Generally Optimistic
Overly Discount Future
Reluctant to change status quo
Organizational
Structural barriers 2 effective info processing
Political
Political Losers Mobilize
Scanning / Integration + Learning Failures
Aviation Security New Security Oversight expensive
Travel Delays
Airlines Block Reform 9.11
Lanir: Between Situational + Fundamental
Situational:Lack of Information
Cognitive Organizational Political
Fundamental:Incompatibility of
self perception with reality
Where does it meet Reut?
Don’t Anticipate
Don’t Perceive
Don’t Attempt to Solve
Don’t Solve (Perceive & Attempt)
Cognitive
Organizational
Political
Why Relevancy Gaps aren’t closed
MindsetDivergent
Reality
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