resilience of the simple? lessons about order from the...

Jeffrey K. HassDepartment of Sociology & Anthropology

University of RichmondUniversity of Richmond, VA

Faculty of Economics, Dept. of Economic TheorySt. Petersburg State University

St. Petersburg, Russia

jhass@richmond.edu

Resilience of the Simple? Lessons about Order from the

Blockade of Leningrad

Onecity:• Brutalwar,noclearendorvictoryinsight.Uncertainty&institutionalstrain.Coldwinter,extremefoodscarcity,farfromcompetentelite.

• TrulyonebigPrisoners’Dilemma

Wasthis:• 1917Petrograd(oneequilibriumofthePD):orderunravelshereandthroughouttheRussianempire?

• Leningradin1941-42,theBlockade(otherequilibriumofthePD):finebalancebetweendecayandresilience(byitsfingertips)?

Shocksfromaboveà survivalincentivesbelow:• Scarcefoodà shiftsincentives• Benefitsofstrategicinnovations(forsurvival,gain,etc.)becomegreater thanforobedience,i.e.cost/benefitcalculusofobedienceversusopportunismordefectionshifts,withinthestateandbetweenstateandothers

• Evenconcentrationofresourcesthatcreatesdependencypowerandlegitimacynowaweakpointininstitutionalcoherenceandauthority.

Forcesfordisaggregationathigherlevels

• Bureaucraticfailure(orbureaucraticfubar)– Informationandinstitutionaloverload– Mismatchofskillsandcompetencies– Fiascoofevacuationsà 3millionsoulsinBlockadering

• Institutionalcompromise:insideropportunism– Insidersusepositionsto“privatize”resources(food,etc.)– Undercutsinstitutionalauthority(dependencypower)

• Competingnodesofdependency(shadowmarkets)– Competingnodesofdependency,orientationorloyalty?

à Allthisinasystemsetupforwar!

Whatheldthingstogetheratthetop?Resilienceofthesimple

• Coherenceand“will”andcontextElitecoherentenough tocoordinatepolicies.Haveenough coercion&capitaltobeofsomerelevance.E.g.NKVDnotabandoningelite

• ParasitismShadowentrepreneursdraininginstitutionalefficacyalsoneedthoseinstitutions(state)

ConclusionsontheCommandingHeights

Hierarchyandcentralizationà risksof• Institutionaloverloadandbureaucraticfailure• Structure+incentives=opportunism• Asifdisaggregationtoanequilibriumwithenoughresilience,withoutsurrenderingallcoherence—i.e.devolutiontonewequilibriumofresilience.(Yetnewinertiamightsustainoracceleratedisaggregation;notin1941-42Leningrad,butsoin1917Petrograd.)

• Decenteredsystemsmighthaveflexibilitytouselocalknowledgeandinitiative.(SimilartoFrenchversusGermanarmiesinWorldWarII,ala JamesQ.Wilson.)

• Notdesiredstrategicdecision—ratherfaitaccompli

TheStoryBelow:AnchoredinEmpathy&Distance

Survival&uncertaintyà Prisoners’Dilemma(savemyskinorothers’skins?).Whatbalancesthem?• AdamSmith:empathy• GaryBeckeronlove:Otherinmy“utility”(self)• ProspectTheory:risk-aversion• Anchoring:weanchorselvesaswellasexpectationsinsocialrelationsimbuedwithempathy&meaningà anchorusinotherfields

Empathy,Distance,Dignity

• Distance:visibility/knowledgeof(suffering)Other=realperson(notabstractorthreat).Easiertostealfromfacelessbureaucracyorstrangerthankin

• Empathy:Countertointerests:Otherasself.

• Dignity:Whysurvive?Issurvivaljustphysical?(Thiscomesupwithdeath,class,andtheodicies.)“Rationalaction”feelscompelled

• Additup:attractive,ordering forces

Anchoringandvalences

• Senseofselfand“theOther”(SimonedeBeauvoirmeetsGaryBecker)à risk-aversionvis-à-visthisOtherwhoispartofmy“self”

• Example:gender—womenandchildrenmothersó childrenó teachers

Empathy(helplesschildren)+senseofselfanchoredinchildren—thechildlinksfieldsofhome&schoolorwork

Conclusionsfrombelow

• Justasforhigher-levelorder,theremightbeprimordialequilibriumgroundedinempathy,distance,anchoring

• Empathy&risk-aversion:wearecreaturesoforder.(Howthisleadstopower,structures,etc.isanotherstory)

Overallthoughts

• Disaggregationfrombureaucraticfailure,possiblytolower-levelequilibrium

• Centrifugal(opportunism)canalsobecentripetal(parasitism)

• Lowerlevels:distance&empathy,anchoringselfinOtherssharedbylower-levelfields

Complexityà simplicity?Howgeneralizable?

Entertaininglywildspeculation#1

CentrifugalvscentripetalforcescouldbemodeledasaninvertedU-shapedcurve• x-axis=increasingthreat(uncertainty,suffering)

• y-axis=likelihoodofinnovations(survival,opportunism)thatundermineorder

Entertaininglywildspeculation#2

• Collapseofastar=gravityversuselectrostaticrepulsion.Whateverbalanceà getanovaorablackhole

• Are“complexity”(or“information”)and“empathy”theequivalents—forasocialnovaorblackhole?(Canwefollowtheleadofthegravitymodelofinternat’l trade&usereal“scientific”modelhere?)