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1 Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/
Religare Morning Digest
May 18, 2017
Nifty Outlook
VWAP (Expiry till date) Max OI (Call) Max OI (Put)
NIFTY 9370 9500 9300
Nifty settled almost unchanged in a range bound session, taking a break after two days of up move. Recovery in metal pack was highlight of the day while mostly sectoral indices traded in line with the benchmark and ended flat. However, there was no shortage of opportunities on stock specific front.
We expect some consolidation in Nifty now, but the trend would remain positive. Maintain buy on dips and give preference to auto and banking counters over others. We’ve been seeing selective movement in midcap and smallcap space so restrict your positions to quality stocks.
Sectors to watch
Sector Name Outlook
AUTO STABLE
FMCG STABLE
PSUBK STABLE
News
Religare Super Ideas**
FII & DII Cash Segment (Rs. in Cr.) Trade Stats
Category Amt. MTD FYTD
FII 858 1831 -4798
DII -402 111 9357
NO OF CON-
TRACTS
TURNOVER IN CR
IDXFUTS 128547 10131
IDXOPT 4022324 333760
STKFUTS 712850 53232
Derivative Ideas **
RPP Infra Projects won order worth Rs. 33 cr for Transmission Corporation of Telangana. The order includes civil work at Tukkapur 400 VK AIS S/S1- Andhra Pradesh and is provided by Siemens. The order is expected to be completed within 12 months.
HUL reported a 6.2% rise in quarterly profit, helped by strong sales of its Pears and Dove products. Net profit rose to Rs 1,183 cr in the quarter ended March 31, compared with Rs 1,114 cr a year earlier. Total income during the quarter under review stood at Rs 8,969 cr as against Rs 8,430 cr in the year-ago period, up 6.4%. The company’s volume growth was reported at 4%.
Bajaj Finance reported 39% rise in total income to Rs. 2,665 cr compared to Rs. 1,916 cr on YoY basis. Net profit came at Rs. 449.2 cr, up 42.6% on YoY basis. Loan losses and provisions for the quarter surged 86% to Rs. 290 cr on YoY basis, as the company took an additional charge of Rs. 70 cr on account of demonetization and non-recurring provisions. New loans booked during Q4FY17 were up 58% on YoY basis.
*FII & DII data as on 16th May 2017
Scrip Buy/Sell CMP Initiation
Range SL* Target
VEDL BUY 242.35 240-243 235 255
ZEEL BUY 524.05 520-524 510 542
**Please note that the given technical and derivative recommendations are
"valid for taking position" only on recommended date and in the given range.
*Please note - Stoploss is on closing basis for delivery recommendation and intraday basis for futures recommendation.
Instrument B/S Lot INITIATION
RANGE SL
TAR-GET
MGL BUY
FUTS 600 1005-1010 990 1050
2 Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/
Religare Morning Digest
May 18, 2017
Religare Super Ideas
Investment Pick - Indo Count Industries Ltd.
Indo Count Industries Ltd. (ICIL) reported a subdued Q4FY17 results on expected lines. Net sales came in flat yoy at Rs 512.9Crs. EBITDA and PAT stood at
Rs 90.1crs and Rs 48.1crs respectively.
ICIL is a leader in home textile segment and has expanded product offerings from sheet set to fashion utility and institutional bedding. The company currently
exports to 54 countries and is expanding footprints into newer geographies by offering niche products. On domestic front, ICIL has ventured into retail segment with “Boutique Living” brand which the company plans to take on pan India basis. We estimate sales, EBITDA and PAT to grow at CAGR of 13.0%, 18.9% and 24.6% over FY17-19E. We reiterate BUY on the stock with an upgraded price target of Rs 240.
Scrip CMP Target Duration Recommendation Price
ICIL 194.35 240 9-12 Months 198
MGL added around 14% of open interest as long
positions along with some delivery based buying in
previous session. On charts, it has created a buying
pivot on daily as well as on intraday charts. it is also
trading above important exponential moving
averages in higher highs - higher lows formation on
daily charts. We recommend buying MGL May
futures as per levels mentioned below.
Strategy: BUY MGL MAY FUTURES BETWEEN
1005-1010, SL 990, TARGET 1050.
Derivative Ideas
Vedanta Limited (VEDL) Zee Entertainment Enterprises Limited
(ZEEL)
In line with rebound in metal pack, VEDL has
recovered strongly of late and formed a fresh
buying pivot on the daily chart. It’s currently
trading closer to its multiple moving averages,
acting as cushion. All indications are in the favour
of strong surge ahead.
After a strong up move, ZEEL has retraced closer to
its support zone of moving averages on daily chart
and consolidating around the same. Traders should
not miss this chance and utilize to initiate fresh
longs in the given range.
3 Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/
Religare Morning Digest
May 18, 2017
Religare Investment Calls
Name of the Company Reco Date Reco Price Target Price Upside % Previous day Closing Price
Nandan Denim 5-Jan-16 150 183 22.0% 133.7
Atul Auto 22-Mar-16 506 580 14.6% 429.0
Cigniti Technologies Ltd. 5-Oct-16 419 538 28.3% 306.9
Fiem Industries 26-Dec-16 1,089 1,315 20.8% 975.0
Greenply Industries 3-Feb-17 268 304 13.4% 292.1
Manpasand Beverages 7-Feb-17 681 854 25.4% 785.1
Wonderla Holidays 7-Feb-17 380 430 13.1% 385.8
Century Plyboards 8-Feb-17 216 300 38.8% 264.9
NRB Bearings 9-Feb-17 108 132 22.2% 118.7
Tv Today Network 14-Feb-17 270 360 33.3% 267.6
Sutlej Textiles 14-Feb-17 843 1,032 22.5% 917.1
Talwalkars Better Value Fitness 20-Feb-17 217 328 51.1% 294.8
SML Isuzu 21-Feb-17 1,240 1,560 25.8% 1,307.1
Arman Financial Services 22-Feb-17 226 340 50.0% 192.2
Jamna Auto 28-Feb-17 209 272 30.1% 238.4
Castrol India 7-Mar-17 412 483 17.1% 439.6
Berger Paints (I) Ltd 15-Mar-17 230 273 18.7% 260.9
Huhtamaki PPL Ltd 30-Mar-17 228 287 26.0% 260.6
Bajaj Finance Ltd 31-Mar-17 1,170 1,421 21.5% 1,324.8
The Byke Hospitality 11-Apr-17 191 242 26.7% 200.3
Mayur Uniquoters Ltd 18-Apr-17 380 478 25.8% 380.0
CRISIL 26-Apr-17 1,911 2,540 32.9% 1,872.1
LIC Housing Finance Ltd 28-Apr-17 670 748 11.6% 690.4
Zee Entertainment Enterprises 12-May-17 530 592 11.6% 524.1
Avanti Feeds 16-May-17 1,077 1,390 29.1% 1,301.8
Force Motors 17-May-17 4,497 5,210 15.9% 4,489.6
Indo Count Industries Ltd. 17-May-17 198 240 21.2% 194.4
4 Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/
Religare Morning Digest
May 18, 2017
Corporate Action Calendar — May 2017 (Stock Split)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
14 15 16 17
Mangal Credit and Fincorp Ltd
18 19 20
Corporate Action Calendar — May 2017 (Cash Dividend)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
14 15 16
Godrej Consumer Products Ltd
Futuristic Solutions Ltd
17
Procter & Gamble Hygiene & Health Care Ltd
Gillette India Ltd
18
LKP Finance Ltd
Kennametal India Ltd
19
Nestle India Ltd
20
5 Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/
Religare Morning Digest
May 18, 2017
Result Calendar — May 2017
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
14 15
ATLANTA LTD.
BATA INDIA LTD.
CHENNAI PETROLEUM CORPORATION LTD.
COLGATE-PALMOLIVE (INDIA) LTD.
Ducon Infratechnologies Ltd
GABRIEL INDIA LTD.-$
INDO COUNT INDUSTRIES LTD.
JK TYRE & INDUSTRIES LTD.
Jindal Stainless (Hisar) Ltd
KAJARIA CERAMICS LTD.
SHARP INDIA LTD.
SOUTH INDIAN BANK LTD.
SUN SOURCE (INDIA) LTD.
UNITY INFRAPROJECTS LTD.
Vaibhav Global Ltd
VCCL LTD.
Vedanta Limited
VEER ENERGY & INFRASTRUC-TURE LTD.
VINDHYA TELELINKS LTD.
VOLTAMP TRANSFORMERS LTD.
Yogya Enterprises Ltd
16
ANDHRA BANK
CREDIT ANALYSIS AND RESEARCH LTD.
Dhanlaxmi Bank Limited
INSILCO LTD.
JIK INDUSTRIES LTD.
MINDA INDUSTRIES LTD.-$
PI Industries Ltd
PUNJAB NATIONAL BANK
SUMEET INDUSTRIES LTD.-$
Symphony Limited
TASTY BITE EATABLES LTD.
TATA STEEL LTD.
TCFC FINANCE LTD.
TRANSPORT CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
TCI DEVELOPERS LTD.
TCPL PACKAGING LTD.-$
TAMILNADU PETROPROD-UCTS LTD.
TRIGYN TECHNOLOGIES LTD.
VARDHMAN HOLDINGS LTD.
WHIRLPOOL OF INDIA LTD.
17
ALLAHABAD BANK
BAJAJ FINSERV LTD.
Bajaj Finance Limited
COSMO FILMS LTD.
Dilip Buildcon Ltd
DELTA MAGNETS LTD.
Edelweiss Financial Services Ltd.
HINDUSTAN UNILEVER LTD.
JK LAKSHMI CEMENT LTD.
JSW STEEL LTD.
KIRLOSKAR BROTHERS LTD.-$
NIIT LTD.
Snowman Logistics Ltd
SRS Finance Ltd
TAJGVK HOTELS & RE-SORTS LTD.
UNITED BREWERIES LTD.-$
UFO Moviez India Ltd
VINYL CHEMICALS (INDIA) LTD.
18
ADITYA BIRLA NUVO LTD.
BAJAJ AUTO LTD.
BANK OF BARODA
CESC LTD.
Coffee Day Enterprises Ltd
CUMMINS INDIA LTD.
JAYKAY ENTERPRISES LTD.
MUTHOOT FINANCE LTD.
PENNAR INDUSTRIES LTD.-$
PIDILITE INDUSTRIES LTD.
SINGER INDIA LTD.
Strides Shasun Ltd
SUTLEJ TEXTILES & INDUSTRIES LTD.
TAKE SOLUTIONS LTD.
TATA COFFEE LTD.
V.I.P.INDUSTRIES LTD.-$
ZYLOG SYSTEMS LTD.
19
GRASIM INDUSTRIES LTD.
MODERN INDIA LTD.-$
MOTHERSON SUMI SYSTEMS LTD.
STATE BANK OF INDIA
SHRICON INDUSTRIES LTD.
Svarnim Trade Udyog Ltd
TATA POWER CO.LTD.
TITAGARH WAGONS LTD.
Umiya Tubes Ltd
V-GUARD INDUSTRIES LTD.
VIVO BIO TECH LTD.
VRL Logistics Ltd
XPRO INDIA LTD.
SPEEDAGE COMMERCIALS LTD.
ZUARI AGRO CHEMICALS LTD.
ZUARI GLOBAL LTD.
20
EUROTEX INDUSTRIES & EXPORTS LTD.
GHCL LTD.
IMP POWERS LTD.
JARIGOLD TEXTILES LTD.
KLRF LTD.
LAKHOTIA POLYESTERS (INDIA) LTD.
PUDUMJEE PULP & PAPER MILLS LTD.
SUMEDHA FISCAL SER-VICES LTD.
THIRUMALAI CHEMICALS LTD.
TRIVENI ENGINEERING & INDUSTRIES LTD.
TRIVENI GLASS LTD.-$
UNITED DRILLING TOOLS LTD.
KHATAU EXIM LTD.
6 Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/
Religare Morning Digest
May 18, 2017
Current Portfolio and Performance Summary as on 17th May’17
Stock Sector Entry Date Weight Reco price (`) CMP (`)
Emami Consumer Goods August 3, 2016 8.6% 1,151 1,085
Castrol India Energy August 5, 2016 9.4% 425 440
Sml Isuzu Auto February 6, 2017 9.5% 1,265 1,307
Amara Raja Batteries Auto March 22, 2017 11.6% 868 938
Power Grid Corporation of India
Energy April 12, 2017 11.2% 200 209
MCX Financial Services April 28, 2017 8.7% 1,234 1,069
Bajaj Finance Financial Services May 5, 2017 10.3% 1,292 1,325
TV Today Network Media & Ent. May 10, 2017 9.6% 279 268
Cash 21.1%
Total 100%
7 Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/
Religare Morning Digest
May 18, 2017
Historical Performance as on 17th May’17
Performance Matrix 1-Month 3-Month 6-Month 1-Year Since Inception
Religare Alpha 2.8% 10.2% 14.6% 20.4% 39.6%
Nifty 4.1% 8.3% 17.9% 20.7% 20.8%
Outperformance -1.3% 1.8% -3.3% -0.3% 18.8%
8 Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/
Religare Morning Digest
May 18, 2017
Research Product Basket
For cash market trading
Call / Product Call Frequency No. of calls Avg open call duration % funds allocated
Intraday Calls Intraday 2 - 3 < 1 day 25%
Live / RMD Calls Daily 3 - 4 3 - 4 days 30%
Master Pick Weekly 1 1 month 15%
Religare Alpha Opportunity NA 2 - 3 months 20%
Cash NA 10%
For 1L margin*
Total Per Call
25,000 8,000
30,000 4,000
15,000 5,000
20,000 As per weightage
10,000
Intraday Calls These calls are flashed live on Ms Lync and ODIN with the purpose of squaring off positions on the same day. As a policy, we restrict our
intraday cash market calls to less than 4 calls a day. Hence, funds should be allocated accordingly to have provision to trade in all calls.
Live / RMD Calls 2 super ideas are flashed in RMD daily with a view of 3-4 days. Additionally as per market opportunity, we flash live calls during the day
(including BTST calls). 3-4 such calls are made on a daily basis which might be open for 3-4 days. Funds should be allocated keeping in mind that
there will be 7-8 such open calls daily.
Master Pick This is our weekly recommendation shortlisted on the basis of techno-funda analysis. 15% of funds is recommended to be allocated for Master
Pick considering that there will be 3 open calls. The average open duration for this call will be 1 month.
Religare Alpha This is a portfolio of 8-10 stocks which are held with a view of 2-3 months. It is recommended to allocate 20% of funds for building this portfolio
which will provide stability to the overall trading portfolio.
Cash 10% surplus cash in the portfolio should be kept for the purposes of allocating it to opportunities as and when they arrive.
For derivative market trading
Call / Product Call Frequency No. of calls Avg open call duration % funds allocated
Derivative Ideas Daily 1 - 2 1 - 3 days 40%
Live calls Intraday / Daily 1 - 2 3 - 4 days 50%
Cash NA 10%
For 1L margin*
Total Per Call
40,000 40,000
50,000 50,000
10,000
Derivative Ideas 1 derivative idea is shared in RMD daily. It can be a plain vanilla F&O buy/sell call or an option strategy. Funds should be allocated assuming 2
such calls will be open at any time. These calls are open for 3-4 days on an average.
Live Calls These calls are flashed on MS Lync and ODIN during live market hours. These calls can be intraday or with a view of 2-3 days. Funds should be
allocated considering 2 such calls will be open at any time. 3/4 times, these calls will be on Nifty / Bank Nifty only.
Cash It is recommended to hold 10% cash to capitalize on any opportunity that may arise in markets.
For every client, the advisor must allocate a specific proportion of funds for trading and investing depending on the risk taking ability and willingness of the client
and their investment goals.
The below mentioned product basket tries to address the way to deal with the trading portfolio (cash/derivative) for optimum effectiveness of research calls.
It is recommended to divide your trading funds for various types of calls and not invest the entire amount for 1 or 2 calls only.
9 Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/
Religare Morning Digest
May 18, 2017
Hitesh Agrawal hitesh.agrawal@religare.com
Ajay Pasari, CFA ajay.pasari@religare.com
Ajit Mishra ajit.mishra@religare.com
Archana Gude archana.gude@religare.com
Manoj M Vayalar manoj.vayalar@religare.com
Mehernosh Khurshed Panthaki mehernosh.panthaki@religare.com
Siji A Philip siji.philip@religare.com
Suhanee Shome suhanee.shome@religare.com
Swati Saxena swati.saxena@religare.com
Vipin Kumar vipin.k@religare.com
Team Members
10 Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/
Religare Morning Digest
May 18, 2017
Before you use this research report , please ensure to go through the disclosure inter-alia as required under Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014 and Research Disclaimer at the following link : http://old.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/Disclaimer_RSL.html
Specific analyst(s) specific disclosure(s) inter-alia as required under Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014 is/are as under:
Statements on ownership and material conflicts of interest , compensation– Research Analyst (RA)
[Please note that only in case of multiple RAs, if in the event answers differ inter-se between the RAs, then RA specific answer with respect to questions under F (a) to F(j) below , are given separately]
Nature of Interest ( if answer to F (a) above is Yes : ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Name(s) with Signature(s) of RA(s).
[Please note that only in case of multiple RAs and if the answers differ inter-se between the RAs, then RA specific answer with respect to questions under F (a) to F(j) above , are given below]
Copyright in this document vests exclusively with RSL. This information should not be reproduced or redistributed or passed on directly or indirectly in any form to any
other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose, without prior written permission from RSL. We do not guarantee the integrity of any emails or attached files and are not responsible for any changes made to them by any other person.
S. No. Statement Answer
Yes No
I/we or any of my/our relative has any financial interest in the subject company? [If answer is yes, nature of Interest is given below this table] No
I/we or any of my/our relatives, have actual/beneficial ownership of one per cent. or more securities of the subject company, at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the research report or date of the public appearance?
No
I/we or any of my/our relative, has any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of public appearance?
No
I/we have received any compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months? No
I/we have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past twelve months? No
I/we have received any compensation for brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months? No
I/we have received any compensation for products or services other than brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months? No
I/we have received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report? No
I/we have served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company? No
I/we have been engaged in market making activity for the subject company? No
SS..No. Name(s) of RA.
Signtures of RA
Serial Question of question which the signing RA needs to make a separate declaration / answer
Yes No.
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