regional security in the eastern mediterranean

Regional Security in the Eastern Mediterranean Nicolai Due-Gundersen

Oval Office for Studies and Research

Introduction Island Division and Maritime Disputes Gas Discoveries and Ambitions Hamas and Hezbollah Temporary Solutions/Conclusion

Agenda

Introduction

1974 North-South split Greek Union Coup 1983: Turkish Republic

of Northern Cyprus 2004: UN

Reunification Rejection and EU assimilation

Grexit considerations and resource coop

Island Division

Cyprus Division: contracts unrecognised

Lebanon-Israel: No accepted delineated borders

UN dilemma for Israel

Maritime Disputes

2009-10: US-Israel venture discovery in Haifa Seabed (Leviathan, Taimur). 26 TCF

2011: Noble Energy discovers Aphrodite Field, Cyp. Approx 7 TcF

Gas Discoveries

(South) Cyprus: Regional LNG hub, refinery for Europe, Egypt

Israel loses Egypt, gains Jord

Israel, Greece, Cyp alliance

Vs Turkey’s ambitions alone; encouraging Leb-Noble field dispute

Ambitions

2006 Hamas Election; 2009 Israeli Invasion

Gaza fields (2000) Israel restricts

Hamas and PA profit; British Gas and Egypt ended

Goods and Services only

Hamas and Hezbollah

Offshore Gaza installation targeted

Distance, isolation= vulnerability

Investor confidence?

2014 Rocket Attacks

Dictated own Lebanese border Israeli projects under threat Secretary General Sheikh Naim Qassem:

“Lebanon will stand guard in order to protect all its rights—no matter the cost.”

Again, Israeli investor stability?

Hezbollah

US Role: Physical, economic security; integrate East Med with global markets; ensure safety of US citizens, workers

Low oil price; high production costs JV for Cyprus, but Israel (militant activity)? Cyprus with Turkey as obstacle US too stretched for supervision?

Low Oil Prices and Transitional Solutions/ Conclusion

nicolai.due.gundersen@gmail.com

Thanks for Listening!