regional and local impacts of climate change...forecast: western kansas. kansas climate projections....

Regional and Local Impacts of Climate Change

N. A. BrunsellDept. of Geography, KU

Global Warming “Debate”

1) Is the global climate changing? (Detection)

2) How much change is due to humans? (Attribution)

3) How much will it change here? (Prediction)

4) What should we do about it? (Implication)

Basic Climatology

www.ipcc.ch

Precipitation

Tem

pera

ture

Courtesy Sharon Billings, KBS and EEB

Courtesy Sharon Billings, KBS and EEB

1941

1966

2002Courtesy Matt Dunbar, KBS and Dept of Geography

Atmospheric Carbon

Leaf Carbon

www.pbrc.hawaii.edu/bemf/microangela/stomata7.htm

Atmospheric Carbon/Water

Leaf Carbon

Water

www.pbrc.hawaii.edu/bemf/microangela/stomata7.htm

Is precipitation changing?

Global Historical Climate Network (1850 – 2006) ‏

Sedan, KS

Caveat: interpreting trends

Caveat: interpreting trends

Trends in precipitation

Trends in precipitation

Topeka gets 19% in Spring38% in Summer

Precipitation and Vegetation

PPT

Ts

Veg

Evolution of Global Climate Models (GCM)

www.ipcc.ch

Is precipitation 'supposed' to be changing?

Global Climate Models don't Agree for Kansas

www.ipcc.ch

Examine the GCM Output

GCM Output (A1B) 21 Models used in IPCC Report

Does GCM output agree with observations?

GCM Model Avg.GHCN Observations

Temperature

Does GCM output agree with observations?

GCM Model Avg.GHCN Observations

Forecast: Western Kansas

Kansas Climate projectionsD = Annual Deficit (mm)S = Annual Surplus (mm)

Western Kansas (37N, 95W)

Source: IPCC 2007J. Feddema University of Kansas

Precipitation

Potential Evapotranspiration

D = 330S = 0

IPCC A1B ScenarioMiddle of the road Scenario

3.5ºC (6.3ºF) annual T increase3% annual P increase

(summer -3% P)

Kansas Climate projectionsD = Annual Deficit (mm)S = Annual Surplus (mm)

Western Kansas (37N, 95W) + 1.5 C all months

+ 5% Precipitation

D = 383S = 0

2050

+ 2 C all months+ 0% Precipitation

D = 433S = 0

Source: IPCC 2007J. Feddema University of Kansas

Precipitation

Potential Evapotranspiration

D = 330S = 0

IPCC A1B ScenarioMiddle of the road Scenario

3.5ºC (6.3ºF) annual T increase3% annual P increase

(summer -3% P)

+ 1.5 C all months+ 5% Precipitation

D = 383S = 0

2050

+ 2 C all months+ 0% Precipitation

D = 433S = 0

Kansas Climate projectionsD = Annual Deficit (mm)S = Annual Surplus (mm)

Western Kansas (37N, 95W)

2100+ 3 C all months+ 5% Precipitation

D =463S = 0

+ 4 C all months+ 0% Precipitation

D =540S = 0

Source: IPCC 2007J. Feddema University of Kansas

Precipitation

Potential Evapotranspiration

D = 330S = 0

IPCC A1B ScenarioMiddle of the road Scenario

3.5ºC (6.3ºF) annual T increase3% annual P increase

(summer -3% P)

Irrigation in Garden City

1972

1988

Ashland, KS Water Use by Phreatophytes

Upland

Lowland

Nelson Environmental Study Area

Vulnerability and Adaptation

DroughtExtreme heatFlash flooding TornadoesWinter weatherFood production

Drought

Potential Impacts on Yield

Urbanization

Urbanization

Greensburg

Before

After

Tornado Climatology

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/severeweather/tornadoes.html

Feedlots

Huge source of carbon

Evaporation is about 1.5 times annual rainfall

Small scale

Very messy field work

Spatial Variability

Scaling UpGreenhouse gases are increasing

The ultimate impact will be governed by land cover and microclimatic interactions

To predict the impacts at a specific place and time is complicated

Many local scale processes are missing

Conclusions

Ultimately, it's a scale issue: how to represent these processes at a much larger scale

Overall picture is correct, now we're fine-tuning

Conclusions

Thank you!