rdbms industry and technology trends 2007
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Copyright 2006 Quest Software
RDBMS Industry andtechnology trends
Guy Harrison
Chief Architect, Database Solutions
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Review of market share and competitivelandscape
Open source and disruptive technology
Technical directions Grids & clusters
Self-managing databases
Application development technologies
Industry trends: Security and compliance
Outsourcing Globalization of data and the database
Visions for the future of the DBMS
Agenda
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History of RDBMS competition
1990: Client server revolution Sybase vs. Ingres vs. Oracle Multi threaded servers (SMP support) Stored procedures/Client server capabilities
1996: Object Oriented Database distractions Informix vs. IBM vs. Oracle OODBMS vs. Object relational vs. relational
2000: Internet gold rush Internet and Java compatibility Best of breed configurations with EMC, Solaris & Oracle Infinite scale-up anticipated Oracle price gouging creates some drift to IBM and SQL Server
2005: ROI/ TCO/ Compliance Battle not over capability but over cost SQL Server disrupts Oracle but constrained by Windows OS
market Oracle disrupting IBM/MF and the high end via grid/RAC. IBM pursues enigmatic Information As A Service (IAAS) strategy
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Market share and competitive landscape
2005 RDBMS market share
45%
21%
17%
17%
Oracle Corp.
IBM
Microsoft Corp.
Others
Source: IDC 2006
26%
22%
13%
12%
1%
0%
26%
Sybase Inc.
NCR Teradata
Progress Software Corp.
SAS Institute
M ySQL
Ingres Corp.
Fujitsu
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Revenues by platform
0.00 500.00 1,000.00 1,500.00 2,000.00 2,500.00 3,000.00
Oracle
IBM
Microsoft
Other
Revenue($M)
2005 RDBMS revenues by platform
Unix
Windows
Linux
Mainframe
Other
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Revenues by company size
SQLServer
SQLServer
SQLServer
SQLServer
SQLServer
Oracle
Oracle
Oracle
Oracle
Oracle
DB2
DB2
DB2
DB2
DB2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Less than
$100 million
$100 million
to less than$500 million
$500 million to
less than$1 billion
$1 billion to
$10 billion
More than $10
billion
SQL Server Oracle DB2
Source: Forrester
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Market growth by platform 2004 predictions
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Millions
Windows
Unix
Linux
Mainframe
Other
Source: IDC
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Market growth by platform 2006 predictions
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
$M
Mainframe
UnixLinux/other open source
Windows 32 and 64
Linux+Unix
Other
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Market share conclusions and speculations
Oracle continues to dominate non-mainframe RDBMS landscape.
However, most shops support >1 RDBMS type (Oracle/SQLServer)and DBA managers at least need to understand more than onetechnology
Growth of Windows as a server platform ensures a healthy growthtrend for SQL Server
Similarly, Oracle stands to be the main beneficiary from the growth ofLinux
No compelling reason to believe that either vendor is going to dominate
Server platform choices are key in RDBMS vendor decisions and vice-versa.
The above ignores the possibility of sudden disruption.
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Disruptive technology
Disruptive innovation occurs when a technology ora technical approach emerges that offers a radicallycheaper way of meeting a need. Lower cost alternatives to low-end utilization
Lower cost creates new consumers
Established players are motivated to move towardsthe more profitable high-end of the market. Existing customers tend to demand features at the high end
High end has higher profit margins
High end is less effected by disruptive technology
But as both the established and disruptive
technologies advance, the established technologyovershoots while the disruptive technology gains
the mainstream. See The Innovators Dilemma, Clayton Christensen, HUP
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Disruptive Technology
Functionality
Time
Functionality demanded at high end of market
Functionality demanded at low end of market
Sustaining
Technology
Disruptive
Technology
The Innovators Dilemma, Clayton Christensen,Harvard University Press
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OSDBMS - MySQL
Advantages: Huge install base Many mission-critical deployments (Sabre, Yahoo, NASA, etc) Critical part of the LAMP stack
Well placed to leverage Linux server growth But dont forget WAMP
Disruptive both as low-cost innovation and competing against non-consumption
Providing 90s style RDBMS for free (internal) or
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Industry trends - Outsourcing
15% of companies report they plan to outsource DBA roles
(Gartner 2004) b/c of: Reduced cost
Difficulty maintaining expertise in house
But BIG obstacles to widespread adoption: High risk (cost of database failure > savings from outsourcing)
Security implications Quality of service
Adoption is relatively narrow and shallow: Minority of companies (but tend to be large) outsourcing only routine DBA
activities
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Industry trends - Security and compliance
A perfect storm accelerated interest in Databasesecurity: 9/11
The legislative response to Enron et al
Sarbanes-Oxley, HIPPA, VISA
High profile database break-ins, slammer worm, etc
Outsourcing (challenge of external DBAs).
Industry responses: Database Encryption
Vulnerability Assessment
Fine grained auditing
Intrusion detection and prevention Separation of duties: Privileges to administer a database do
not automatically imply privilege to view or alter data
Oracle leading in inbuilt security features
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Industry TrendAutonomic / self managingcomputing
All vendors especially Oracle are motivated tocompete on ease of administration Oracle ADDM (Automatic Database Diagnostic Manager)
SQL Server DTA (Database Tuning Advisor)
UDB Leo (Learning Optimizer)
Evolutionary changes for the DBA
As legacy becomes automated, leading edge stillrequires intensive manual administration Oracle 10g RAC, for instance
Overall effect of automation will be to slightly reduceDBA market growth and to shift demand to higherend skills
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Technical trends grids / utility computing
Computing resources (IO, storage, memory,CPU) allocated on demand across theenterprise Analogy to the electricity grid
Economic benefits will be irresistible once the
technical challenges overcome. Grids have been viable only for CPU-bound
applications until recently
To create a database-enabled grid we need:
A way to shift CPU/memory (eg blades) efficientlybetween databases
A way to shift IO & storage efficiently betweendatabases
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Grids, RAC and VMs
Oracle RAC is a step towards CPU on demand for databases In some future release (possibly Oracle 11) blades will migrate between RAC
clusters on demand
ASM provides a disk-grid solution Although there are non-Oracle technologies that can achieve this in a
heterogenous manner
RAC and ASM are not quite there yet Nevertheless, RAC changes the economics of providing HA VLDB in a way that
competitors cannot currently address
Virtualization offers an alternative utility computing vision Resources can be shifted between VMs on demand
However, not able to migrate VMs across hosts instantaneously (so scalabilitylimited to size of single host)
Databases currently perform poorly inside VMs
Hypervisor technologies and Virtual-aware chipsets will possibly correct this
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Blade Farm
Disk Farm (ASM?)
RAC Instance RAC InstanceRAC InstanceRAC InstanceRAC InstanceRAC InstanceRAC InstanceRAC Instance
Blade Rack Blade RackBlade RackBlade RackBlade Rack Blade RackBlade Rack
Disk
Disk Disk
Disk
Disk Disk Disk DiskDiskDisk Disk
Technical trends grids
Blade Farm
Disk Farm (ASM?)
RAC Instance RAC InstanceRAC InstanceRAC InstanceRAC InstanceRAC InstanceRAC InstanceRAC Instance
Blade Rack Blade RackBlade RackBlade RackBlade Rack Blade RackBlade Rack
Disk
Disk Disk
Disk
Disk Disk Disk DiskDiskDisk Disk
Blade Farm
Disk Farm (ASM)
RAC Instance RAC InstanceRAC InstanceRAC InstanceRAC InstanceRAC InstanceRAC InstanceRAC Instance
Blade Rack Blade RackBlade RackBlade RackBlade Rack Blade RackBlade Rack
Disk
Disk Disk
Disk
Disk Disk DiskDiskDisk
Disk
Disk
Disk
Disk
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Technical trends Object-Relational Mapping
Increasing trend towards ORM Dominant paradigm in Java already (Hibernate)
Increasing in OSS (Ruby on Rails)
Emerging in .NET
Increasing prevalence in OSS and .NETenvironments (LINQ, Rails Active Record)
Obfuscation of relational data in some cases (esp.JDO)
Harder to perform Business Intelligence andAnalytical processing
Container generated SQL
Harder to tune & debug though often simpler
access paths Tendency towards over-simplified and/or
unnormalized data models to suit programmingmodels (ORMs tend to prefer single tableaccesses)
RDBMS vendors introducing tune without
change and secondary optimizers in response
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Technology trends Application development
Multiple factors converging to reduce thesignificance of stored procedures in modernapplications: No standardization in stored procedure languages
Use of SPs increase RDBMS vendor lock-in
ORM ignores SPs
Packaged applications want to be heterogenous (exceptfor Oracle Fusion )
Middle tier a better choice for business logic
However: We still see strong growth in the PL/SQL development
tools market
Oracle is one of the big two ERP vendors and they dont
want to be heterogenous Middle tier/OO languages (and programmers!) not
optimized for data access
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Drivers Because we can
Fine grained, real world data (RFID)
Longer term retention policies (Sarb-Ox,etc)
Complex and unstructured data (Flickr,YouTube)
Implications Scale out architectures increasingly more
attractive (unpredictable future demands)
Demand for archiving solutions
Suppresses disruptive effect of low endvendors
Less than
100 GB 12%
100 GB to499 GB 17%
500 GB toless than1 TB 24%
1 TB to lessthan 2 TB
7%
2 TB to5 TB 19%
More than5 TB 21%
Size of largest production databaseSource: Forrester (DBMS Survey 2006)
Data volume growth
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Growing demand for data search and linking
Islands of information need to be broken down Motivations for globalising and unifying data:
RFID/Supply chain
Web services/mash-ups/co-operative e-commerce
Expectations raised by internet content search
But: No clear technical solution
Significant societal issues in respect of security andprivacy
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Visions of the future of DBMS
Larry Ellison:
A single, global, logical (Oracle) instance/clustertied together with grids and data pump technology
Both data and computing resources will be madeavailable across the network on demand
Data sharing through consolidation
Web services standards bodies:
All interactions will occur through well-definedWeb Service interfaces utilizing specificspecifications such as WS-transaction, WS-security, etc.
RDBMS is a local persistence store only Open Source/Web 2.0 community:
Same as above, but mash-ups not Standards-based WS
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Visions of the future of DBMS
Adam Bosworth (Google) Something radically different is going to emerge. Orders of magnitude more data is going to be stored
on the net in the near future and the expectation isgoing to be that we can find and possibly modify itfrom anywhere
Formal, tightly coupled web services will give way tosimple, sloppy (maybe RSS based) protocols
Matching will result not from a worldwidestandardization of data or a semantic web, but from
stupid but powerful algorithms (similar to Google spell
check) Centralized relational Databases of today are going to
seem so twentieth century and one of those
technologies that never got the internet
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Visions of the future of DBMS
Michael Stonebraker (creator of Posgres/Ingres) etal One Size Fits All (OSFA) RDBMS architecture cannot meet
the needs of current and emerging demands:
OLTP, stream processing (telco, web), OLAP/DW,Unstructured, mobile, embedded, multi-dimensional, etc
Specialized databases can generated 10x performanceimprovements
For instance, column based organization instead of rowbased
The competing demand of data integration will probablypreclude a re-fragmentation of data
They suggest either: Hybrid system with various underlying storage engines
(a la MySQL)
Data federation
A new from scratch DBMS system with relational
features but also able to perform column based
operations
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Questions?
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