radical right dynamics in france
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IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
The Dynamics of Radical Right Party Supportand Mainstream Parties’ Programmatic Change
in France
Kai Arzheimer
University of Mainz/University of Essex
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (1/11)
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
What’s the problem (I)?
I Radical Right in Western EuropeI Roughly similar profile (the nation, law and order,
anti-establishment, immigration)I Roughly similar voters (working/lower middle classes, male,
moderate levels of formal education)I Roughly similar support?
I Support for the Radical Right highly volatile
I Accross time (within countries)I Across countries
I Demand should be roughly stable
I “Supply Side” (party) and “Contextual” (external) factors
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (2/11)
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
What’s the problem (I)?
I Radical Right in Western EuropeI Roughly similar profile (the nation, law and order,
anti-establishment, immigration)I Roughly similar voters (working/lower middle classes, male,
moderate levels of formal education)I Roughly similar support?
I Support for the Radical Right highly volatileI Accross time (within countries)I Across countries
I Demand should be roughly stable
I “Supply Side” (party) and “Contextual” (external) factors
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (2/11)
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
What’s the problem (I)?
I Radical Right in Western EuropeI Roughly similar profile (the nation, law and order,
anti-establishment, immigration)I Roughly similar voters (working/lower middle classes, male,
moderate levels of formal education)I Roughly similar support?
I Support for the Radical Right highly volatileI Accross time (within countries)I Across countries
I Demand should be roughly stable
I “Supply Side” (party) and “Contextual” (external) factors
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (2/11)
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
A possible solution: context
I Jackman and Volpert, 1996, Knigge, 1998, Lubbers, Gijsberts,and Scheepers, 2002, Golder, 2003a,b, Swank and Betz, 2003:Electoral System, Unemployment, Immigration, Welfare StateInstitutions, political space
I Arzheimer and Carter, 2006: ideological context , i. e. presenceof radical right issues in other parties’ manifestos
I Polarisation, variance, salience:
I Radical Right will benefit if other parties talk about “their”issues
I Direction does no matterI Agenda setting, priming, legitimacy
I Would the radical right suffer if all other parties stoppedtalking about their issues?
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (3/11)
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
A possible solution: context
I Jackman and Volpert, 1996, Knigge, 1998, Lubbers, Gijsberts,and Scheepers, 2002, Golder, 2003a,b, Swank and Betz, 2003:Electoral System, Unemployment, Immigration, Welfare StateInstitutions, political space
I Arzheimer and Carter, 2006: ideological context , i. e. presenceof radical right issues in other parties’ manifestos
I Polarisation, variance, salience:
I Radical Right will benefit if other parties talk about “their”issues
I Direction does no matterI Agenda setting, priming, legitimacy
I Would the radical right suffer if all other parties stoppedtalking about their issues?
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (3/11)
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
A possible solution: context
I Jackman and Volpert, 1996, Knigge, 1998, Lubbers, Gijsberts,and Scheepers, 2002, Golder, 2003a,b, Swank and Betz, 2003:Electoral System, Unemployment, Immigration, Welfare StateInstitutions, political space
I Arzheimer and Carter, 2006: ideological context , i. e. presenceof radical right issues in other parties’ manifestos
I Polarisation, variance, salience:
I Radical Right will benefit if other parties talk about “their”issues
I Direction does no matterI Agenda setting, priming, legitimacy
I Would the radical right suffer if all other parties stoppedtalking about their issues?
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (3/11)
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
A possible solution: context
I Jackman and Volpert, 1996, Knigge, 1998, Lubbers, Gijsberts,and Scheepers, 2002, Golder, 2003a,b, Swank and Betz, 2003:Electoral System, Unemployment, Immigration, Welfare StateInstitutions, political space
I Arzheimer and Carter, 2006: ideological context , i. e. presenceof radical right issues in other parties’ manifestos
I Polarisation, variance, salience:I Radical Right will benefit if other parties talk about “their”
issuesI Direction does no matterI Agenda setting, priming, legitimacy
I Would the radical right suffer if all other parties stoppedtalking about their issues?
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (3/11)
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
A possible solution: context
I Jackman and Volpert, 1996, Knigge, 1998, Lubbers, Gijsberts,and Scheepers, 2002, Golder, 2003a,b, Swank and Betz, 2003:Electoral System, Unemployment, Immigration, Welfare StateInstitutions, political space
I Arzheimer and Carter, 2006: ideological context , i. e. presenceof radical right issues in other parties’ manifestos
I Polarisation, variance, salience:I Radical Right will benefit if other parties talk about “their”
issuesI Direction does no matterI Agenda setting, priming, legitimacy
I Would the radical right suffer if all other parties stoppedtalking about their issues?
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (3/11)
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
What’s the problem (II)?
I Tested this in two different multi-level models (respondentsnested in surveys/country-years)
I But: Downsian parties act strategically
I Salience could be a reaction to previous radical right success
I Our findings spurious?
I Salience a cause or a consequence of radical right success?Chicken – egg problem
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (4/11)
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
What’s the problem (II)?
I Tested this in two different multi-level models (respondentsnested in surveys/country-years)
I But: Downsian parties act strategically
I Salience could be a reaction to previous radical right success
I Our findings spurious?
I Salience a cause or a consequence of radical right success?Chicken – egg problem
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (4/11)
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
What’s the problem (II)?
I Tested this in two different multi-level models (respondentsnested in surveys/country-years)
I But: Downsian parties act strategically
I Salience could be a reaction to previous radical right success
I Our findings spurious?
I Salience a cause or a consequence of radical right success?Chicken – egg problem
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (4/11)
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
A different approach: VAR (I)
I Effect of previous radical right success very difficult toincorporate into full multi-level models
I MulticollinearityI InterpretationI Structure of the data set
I Ignore micro-level → macro-political analysis
I No cross-level inference:
I Manifestos and radical right success (as opposed to individualvotes) all system-level phenomena
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (5/11)
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
A different approach: VAR (I)
I Effect of previous radical right success very difficult toincorporate into full multi-level models
I MulticollinearityI InterpretationI Structure of the data set
I Ignore micro-level → macro-political analysis
I No cross-level inference:
I Manifestos and radical right success (as opposed to individualvotes) all system-level phenomena
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (5/11)
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
A different approach: VAR (I)
I Effect of previous radical right success very difficult toincorporate into full multi-level models
I MulticollinearityI InterpretationI Structure of the data set
I Ignore micro-level → macro-political analysis
I No cross-level inference:
I Manifestos and radical right success (as opposed to individualvotes) all system-level phenomena
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (5/11)
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
A different approach: VAR(II)
I Statistical model: Vector Auto Regression (VAR)
I Multivariate time-series analysisI Regress each variable (success/salience) on
I Its own past valuesI The other variable’s past values (4 lags = 2 years)
I Immigration and unemployment as controls
I Addresses two questions:
1. ‘Granger causality’: significant improvement of predictions?2. Dynamic analysis: short and medium-term impact of random
shocks
I So far, for France only (Eurobarometer 1980–2002)
I Limitations of data and design
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (6/11)
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
A different approach: VAR(II)
I Statistical model: Vector Auto Regression (VAR)
I Multivariate time-series analysisI Regress each variable (success/salience) on
I Its own past valuesI The other variable’s past values (4 lags = 2 years)
I Immigration and unemployment as controlsI Addresses two questions:
1. ‘Granger causality’: significant improvement of predictions?2. Dynamic analysis: short and medium-term impact of random
shocks
I So far, for France only (Eurobarometer 1980–2002)
I Limitations of data and design
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (6/11)
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
A different approach: VAR(II)
I Statistical model: Vector Auto Regression (VAR)
I Multivariate time-series analysisI Regress each variable (success/salience) on
I Its own past valuesI The other variable’s past values (4 lags = 2 years)
I Immigration and unemployment as controlsI Addresses two questions:
1. ‘Granger causality’: significant improvement of predictions?2. Dynamic analysis: short and medium-term impact of random
shocks
I So far, for France only (Eurobarometer 1980–2002)
I Limitations of data and design
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (6/11)
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
What Are the Main Findings?
I Previous levels of salience significantly improve prediction ofradical right success
I Previous levels of radical right success do not significantlyimprove predictions for salience – no ‘Granger causality’
I Not a straightforward test of causality (would requireexperimental design)
I But circumstantial evidence in support of salience as a cause,not a consequence
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (7/11)
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
What Are the Main Findings?
I Previous levels of salience significantly improve prediction ofradical right success
I Previous levels of radical right success do not significantlyimprove predictions for salience – no ‘Granger causality’
I Not a straightforward test of causality (would requireexperimental design)
I But circumstantial evidence in support of salience as a cause,not a consequence
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (7/11)
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
Consequences of a flash success: nil
-.2
0
.2
.4
.6
0 5 10
order1, rexvote, salienzmean
68% CI impulse response function (irf)
step
Graphs by irfname, impulse variable, and response variable
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (8/11)
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
Conclusion
I Findings for France support Arzheimer and Carter, 2006,but. . .
I Very low number of observations within France (n = 35)
I Requires interpolation
I Media content as an additional control/factor?
I Other countries in Western Europe?
I Handling of missing surveys (not a big deal in France)
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (9/11)
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
Conclusion
I Findings for France support Arzheimer and Carter, 2006,but. . .
I Very low number of observations within France (n = 35)
I Requires interpolation
I Media content as an additional control/factor?
I Other countries in Western Europe?
I Handling of missing surveys (not a big deal in France)
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (9/11)
IntroductionDynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
Conclusion
I Findings for France support Arzheimer and Carter, 2006,but. . .
I Very low number of observations within France (n = 35)
I Requires interpolation
I Media content as an additional control/factor?
I Other countries in Western Europe?
I Handling of missing surveys (not a big deal in France)
Thanks for your time!
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (9/11)
References
Bibliography I
Arzheimer, Kai (2009). “Contextual Factors and the ExtremeRight Vote in Western Europe, 1980–2002”. In: American Journalof Political Science 53.2, pp. 259–275. url:http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00369.x.Arzheimer, Kai and Elisabeth Carter (2006). “Political OpportunityStructures and Right-Wing Extremist Party Success”. In: EuropeanJournal of Political Research 45, pp. 419–443.Golder, Matt (2003a). “Electoral Institutions, Unemployment andExtreme Right Parties. A Correction”. In: British Journal ofPolitical Science 33, pp. 525–534.— (2003b). “Explaining Variation in the Success of Extreme RightParties in Western Europe”. In: Comparative Political Studies 36,pp. 432–466.
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (10/11)
References
Bibliography II
Jackman, Robert W. and Karin Volpert (1996). “ConditionsFavouring Parties of the Extreme Right in Western Europe”. In:British Journal of Political Science 26, pp. 501–521.Knigge, Pia (1998). “The Ecological Correlates of Right-WingExtremism in Western Europe”. In: European Journal of PoliticalResearch 34, pp. 249–279.Lubbers, Marcel, Merove Gijsberts, and Peer Scheepers (2002).“Extreme Right-Wing Voting in Western Europe”. In: EuropeanJournal of Political Research 41, pp. 345–378.Swank, Duane and Hans-Georg Betz (2003). “Globalization, theWelfare State and Right-Wing Populism in Western Europe”. In:Socio-Economic Review 1, pp. 215–245.
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (11/11)
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