q3 2014 investor presentation - norbord.com · investor presentation november 2014 . 2 ... • this...

Q3 2014 Investor Presentation November 2014

2

• All financial references are expressed in US$ unless otherwise noted. • Financial numbers prior to 2010 were prepared in accordance with CGAAP, while numbers from 2010 onward have been prepared in accordance with IFRS. • This presentation contains forward-looking statements and estimates. • Actual company results could differ materially from a conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information. • Certain material factors or assumptions were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information. • Additional information can be found in the Company’s annual information form, annual MD&A, and on Norbord’s website (www.norbord.com) about the material factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information, and the material factors or assumptions that were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information. • During the course of this presentation, certain non-IFRS financial information will be presented. Definitions and reconciliation of terms can be found in the Company’s annual and quarterly MD&A.

Forward-Looking Statements and Non-IFRS Financial Information

3

Company Snapshot

• Norbord is a leading manufacturer of wood-based panel products and one of the largest global producers of OSB ─ Installed OSB capacity of over 5 Bsf ─ 1,950 employees at 13 plants across the US, Europe

and Canada

• Listed on TSX (“NBD”)

• Reports in US dollars and in accordance with IFRS

• As at October 27, 2014: ─ Total assets of $1,150 million ─ LTM sales of $1,218 million ─ LTM EBITDA of $104 million

I. COMPANY OVERVIEW

US 61%

Europe 27%

Canada 12%

6.1 Bsf

Panel Capacity by Region

UNITED STATES

CANADA

North America

GERMANY

BELGIUM

FRANCE

UNITEDKINGDOM

Europe

Medium Density Fibreboard

Oriented Strand Board

Furniture

Particleboard

4

Norbord’s Products

• New home construction • Repair and remodel • Light commercial construction • Industrial applications

OSB – 84% of Capacity

Particleboard – 10% of Capacity

MDF – 6% of Capacity

• New home construction • Repair and remodel • Furniture • Fixtures

• Furniture • Fixtures • Mill work

• Norbord’s operations include 11 OSB mills, two particleboard mills, one medium density fibreboard (“MDF”) mill and one furniture plant

I. COMPANY OVERVIEW

Typical Uses for OSB Products II. INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

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Walls

Flooring

Roof

Norbord Operates in the Two Significant Global OSB Markets

0

10

20

30

North America

Europe South America

Asia

Industry OSB Capacity (MMsf 3/8”)

6

II. INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

Source: Company Documents and Other Public Filings

7

Kronospan33%

Kronoswiss24%

Norbord12%

Egger12%

Sonae8%

Smartply6%

Kalavela5%

Norbord a Significant Player in Both Key Markets

Louisiana-Pacific

22%

Georgia-Pacific

19%

Norbord16%

Weyer-haeuser

11%

Ainsworth9%

Huber8%

Tolko8%

Other7%

Source: Company Documents and Other Public Filings - Installed Capacity

Industry Capacity 28 Bsf

Industry Capacity

6 Bsf

North American OSB Industry European OSB Industry

II. INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

Demand Growth Ahead in Both Key Markets

0%

25%

50%

75%

80 85 90 95 00 05 10

North America

Europe

OSB Share of Structural Panels

8

II. INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

Source: FEA and Norbord Estimates

US Housing Starts (millions)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Housing Starts Underlying Demand

9

US Housing Starts Recovery is Real

Source: FEA

• Leverage to US housing recovery • Favourable long-term OSB industry fundamentals

OVER built

UNDER built

II. INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

10 Source: Company Documents and Other Public Filings

II. INDUSTRY OVERVIEW Additional OSB Capacity Restarted to Meet Growing Demand

38 Mills in Operation 8 Mills Indefinitely Curtailed

North American OSB Installed Capacity:

Norbord Mill 6 Mills (Re)started in 2013

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Attractive OSB Outlook II. INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

Sources: Random Lengths and FEA

• OSB prices are tied to demand for building products, which is influenced by the general economy, demographics and the need for housing

• With US housing recovering, OSB prices are projected to remain above trend

North Central Benchmark OSB Price

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F

Ann

ual A

vera

ge N

C P

rice

U

S$

per M

sf 7

/16"

10 year average

50

100

150

200

250

300

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F

UK +30% in 2013

Germany +12% per year

Core European Housing Markets Recovering

Housing Starts (000s)

12

II. INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

Source: National House Builder Confederation (NHBC) , Construction Products Association (CPA) & Bundesbank

13

Norbord’s Strategy is Well Defined

• Pursue growth in OSB

• Own highest-quality assets with lowest cost position

• Maintain a margin-focused operating culture

• Focus on growth customers through best-in-class service and product development

• Allocate capital with discipline

III. BUSINESS STRATEGY

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Norbord’s Growth Focused on OSB

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

'92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13

Norbord OSB Capacity (Billion Square Feet 3/8”)

III. BUSINESS STRATEGY

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Low Cost Margin-Focused Operating Platform

• Low cost operating platform providing superior margins versus peers

Source: Company Documents and Other Public Filings (1) North American peer = Louisiana-Pacific

III. BUSINESS STRATEGY

North American OSB EBITDA Margin %

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 LTM

Norbord North American peer (1)

16

3728

56

914

29

1625 23

0$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Margin Improvement is an Operational Priority

• Margin Improvement Program (MIP) gains help offset impact of industry-wide rising input costs, without capex investment: ─ Increased productivity ─ Reduced overhead costs ─ Reduced raw material usage ─ Improved product mix

III. BUSINESS STRATEGY

MIP Gains (US$ millions)

(1) The benefits of improved productivity and a richer value-added product mix were offset by higher maintenance spending in 2013.

(1)

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Customer Strategy Sets Norbord Apart

• New housing sales volume growing as US housing starts recover • Pro-dealer shipments now represent 50% of Norbord sales volume

50%

35%

15%

35%

35%

30% New Home Construction (Pro-dealers)

Repair & Remodel (Big Box)

Industrial

NA Shipments

2.9 Bsf

NA Shipments

3.5 Bsf

III. BUSINESS STRATEGY

2011 YTD 2014 (annualized)

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Disciplined Capital Allocation

• Track record of disciplined capital allocation ─ Accretive acquisitions ─ Low cost capacity additions ─ Divestment of non-core assets ─ Deleverage on cyclical upturns ─ Dividends ─ Share buybacks

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F

Capex Greenfield Expansion

III. BUSINESS STRATEGY

Capex Investment (US$ millions)

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Strong Operating Cash Flow Through Cycle

631

495

247

42

(60)

0

10745

188

287

104

($100)

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 LTM

10 year average $198 million

North Central Benchmark OSB Price 369 320 217 161 172 163 219 186 271 315 225

Norbord Sensitivity to North American OSB Price Changes:

+$10/Msf 7/16” = +$36 million EBITDA (at full capacity)

Total EBITDA (US$ millions)

IV. FINANCIAL OVERVIEW

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Stable Results Continue from European Operations

• Norbord’s European operations provide greater sales and earnings diversification than other North American-based competitors

58

32 35

81

417

3744 39

46 48

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 LTM

IV. FINANCIAL OVERVIEW

European EBITDA (US$ millions)

21

245

200

240

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Prin

cipa

l Val

ue -

US

$ m

illio

ns

5.375% Bonds

Revolving Bank Lines (Undrawn)

7.70% Bonds

Strong Liquidity

US$ millions Q3 2014 Cash 54 Bank Lines 242 A/R Sec. (1) 100

Liquidity 396

(1) In addition, the Company has an undrawn $100 million 1-year evergreen A/R securitization program.

Moody’s Ba2 (Stable) S&P BB- (Stable) DBRS BB (Stable)

Norbord’s Financial House Is In Order IV. FINANCIAL OVERVIEW

Manageable Debt Maturities (1) Strong Liquidity

Stable Issuer Credit Ratings

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Attractive Investment Opportunity

• Leverage to unfolding US housing recovery ─ Every +$10 in NA OSB price = +$36 million in EBITDA at full capacity

• Stable EBITDA contribution from European operations

• Low-cost operating platform

• Superior margins versus peers

• Track record of disciplined capital allocation

• Strong financial liquidity and comfortable debt maturities

V. SUMMARY

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Appendices

Ticker Symbol TSX: NBD

Common Shares 53.4 million outstanding (as at October 27, 2014)

Quarterly Dividend CAD $0.60 per share (payable on December 21, 2014 to shareholders of record on December 1, 2014)

Majority Shareholder Brookfield Asset Management – 52%

Shareholder Information

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25

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Annu

al A

vera

ge N

C Pr

ice

US$

per M

sf 7

/16"

Source: Random Lengths

15 year average

OSB Prices Strong Over the Cycle

Historical North Central Benchmark OSB Price

Q1 217 261 132 163 175 423 364 285 145 137 154 212 198 203 417 219Q2 291 240 190 159 215 443 297 238 156 179 146 295 173 235 347 219Q3 301 171 180 159 381 351 303 181 177 201 178 180 184 313 252 216Q4 230 155 140 156 401 264 317 166 165 170 172 191 190 332 245

Average 260 207 160 159 293 369 320 217 161 172 163 219 186 271 315

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(1) Assumes operation at full capacity levels

Direct exposures only; before the impact of any cash flow currency hedges

Tax operating loss carry-forwards (gross) as at Dec. 31, 2013 – US $71 million, Canada C$49 million, Belgium €30 million

(2) Excluding dividends on common shares

Exposure Change

EBITDA Impact (1)

($ millions)

North American OSB $10 per Msf 7/16” + $36

European OSB €10 per m3 + $7

Canadian dollar(2) $0.01 per Cdn$ < $1

Pound sterling £0.01 per € < $1

Financial Sensitivities

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Analyst Analyst Name Contact

CIBC Mark Kennedy (403) 221-4133 mark.kennedy@cibc.ca

Credit Suisse Andrew Kuske (416) 352-4561 andrew.kuske@credit-suisse.com

Dundee Capital Markets Stephen Atkinson (514) 396-0321 satkinson@dundeecapitalmarkets.com

ERA Forest Products Research Claire Huxtable (604) 886-5741 chuxtable@ERA-research.com

John Tumazos Very Independent Research John Tumazos (732) 444-1083 john@veryindependentresearch.com

Raymond James Daryl Swetlishoff (604) 659-8246 daryl.swetlishoff@raymondjames.ca

RBC Capital Markets Paul Quinn (604) 257-7048 paul.c.quinn@rbccm.com

Scotia Capital Benoit Laprade (514) 287-3627 benoit.laprade@scotiabank.com

TD Securities Sean Steuart (416) 308-3399 sean.steuart@tdsecurities.com

Vertical Research Partners James Armstrong (212) 256-6157 ja@verticalresearchpartners.com

Analyst Coverage of Norbord

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• Norbord does not provide guidance regarding its expectations of future OSB prices. The following is a sample of price forecasts by analysts as at November 17, 2014. It is not exhaustive.

Annual Average North Central Benchmark OSB Price US$ per Msf 7/16” 2014F 2015F 2016F CIBC 220 250 -

Dundee Capital Markets 220 225 -

Raymond James 225 270 280

RBC Capital Markets 220 240 275

Scotia Capital 220 258 301

TD Securities 221 248 270

Vertical Research Partners 215 230 280

Average $222 $246 $281

Forecast OSB Pricing – North Central 7/16”