prof. dr. ir. ronnie belmans, k.u. leuven bevoorradingszekerheid in belgiË

Prof. Dr. ir. Ronnie Belmans, K.U. Leuven

BEVOORRADINGSZEKERHEID IN BELGIË

Security of electricity supply "Can we keep the lights on in Belgium?"

Ronnie BelmansProfessor KU Leuven

The European Framework

Sustainability

Security of supplyCompetitiveness& affordability

Regulation of

Monopolies

Innovation and

Competitiveness

Low Prices

And Efficiency

Primary Energy

Sources

Reliability and

Quality

Capacity

Inte

rnal

Mar

ket

Security of Supply

Environment

Lisbon Agenda

The European Framework

NaturePreservation

ClimateChange

Kyoto andPost-Kyoto

Targets:

• A 20% reduction in EU greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels;

• Raising the share of EU energy consumption produced from renewable resources to 20%

• A 20% improvement in the EU's energy efficiency.

Climate Action

-20% -20%

+20%

Targets:

Where are we now?

Climate Action

-20% -20%

+20%

Binding national targets by 2020 - Belgium 13%

Renewables

End 2012:Wind: 1335 MWPV: 1790 MW

=

On track

POWER

Effects:o Reduced emission due to economic crisiso More renewable energy

Energy Roadmap 2050

Reducing Greenhouse gas emissions to 80-95% below 1990 levels by 2050

Decarbonisation

On track

Not on track

Reaction: Energy Efficiency Directive: Binding targets• Public bodies need to buy energy-efficient buildings, products and

services, and refurbish 3% of their buildings each year to drastically reduce their energy consumption.

• Energy utilities have to encourage end users to cut their energy consumption through efficiency improvements

• Industry expected to become more aware of energy-saving possibilities, with large companies required to undertake energy audits every 3 years.

Energy Efficiency

Increasing energy consumption with trend towards more electrification

Can generation and grid follow?

First conclusion

Ageing assets

Ronnie Belmans - Areva T&D Comex meeting -

Bremen, Germany11

Source: RWE (CIRED2007)

Source: KEMA (based on data Dutch DSO)

Source: PB Power/IBM(based on data UK DSOs)

Belgium Nuclear phase out

E.on shut down?

• Federal Act of 31 January 2003o Prohibited the building of new nuclear power plants o Limited the operating lives of existing ones to 40 years

(to 2014-2025)o Possibility to be overridden by CREG if Belgium's

security of supply is threatened.

• Effect: Uncertain investment climate no significant investments

Belgium Nuclear phase out

• 11 march 2011: Fukushima

• 15 march 2011: German Nuclear phase out plano 8 plants shut down (5,065 MW)o Complete phase out by 2022

• Summer 2012: Doel 3 (1.006 MW) and Tihange 2 (1.008 MW) closed due to possible cracks, in the tank containing the reactor’s core.

Belgium Nuclear phase out

Energy produced in 2011 [%]

Importance of nuclear power in Belgium

Consequences: Generated Electricity

2011 20120

100020003000400050006000700080009000

10000

Others Wind Water Coal Natural Gas Nuclear

[MW

]Average Production September 2011 vs 2012

 [MW] 2011 2012TOTAL 9195 7142DEMAND 8677 8411NET 518 -1269

exporting region importing region

• Adjustments product mix: o Nuclear power partly replaced by coal o Additional capacity of renewables

• Still total production < demand

Belgium depended on import

Consequences: Generated Electricity

  2011 2012TOTAL 9195 7142DEMAND 8677 8411NET 518 -1269

exporting region importing region

What about transmission

• No margin left• Nuclear: loss of 2 GW

(vessel cracks)

• Nuclear: currently 1 GW planned outage (Doel 4)

• E.on Vilvoorde: 385 MW CCGT out of operation (jan 2014)

• Interconnection capacity: 3.500 MW

• Belgium dependency on imports

• Winter periods

• Finding sellers

• Forecast said:o Under severe conditions regarding load (temperature)

and generation availability, Belgium might have to rely on structural imports from neighbouring countries

o No lack of energy on the European scale

No problem to import

Situation last year: winter 2011-2012

• Forecast says:o Belgium: no margin left

• Nuclear capacity• Shut down conventional power plants

o German nuclear moratorium, it is possible that the necessary energy is not available in extreme winter conditions

Possible problem to import

Situation this year: winter 2012-2013

Europe when facing extreme winter conditions

No Import Required

Imports at least one week during winter

Weekly Imports Required

• Two critical situations can arise:

1.) Predictable shortage when local generation is insufficient to cover consumption, e.g., at the peak time of the day (traditionally after sunset, around 6:15 p.m. in winter).

What if things go wrong?

• Two critical situations can arise:

2.) Unexpected incident leading to a major imbalance• Germany: 4 November 2006• Impact on Belgium:

• 800MW of power wasinterrupted (10% demand)

• Quick-start generation units were brought online

What if things go wrong?

• Who is responsible:o The government, represented by the Minister for Energy

o Power generators/suppliers obliged to balance generation with consumption in its portfolio.

o TSO provides services to maintain a constant balance between generation and consumption in its control area.

Security of supply

• The market

• TSO

• Smart Gridso Consumerso VPP

Who can solve the problem?

• Consequences for the market price?o Summer period 2011 vs 2012o 5 day moving average price Belpex

Who can solve the problem: the market?

€ 0.00

€ 10.00

€ 20.00

€ 30.00

€ 40.00

€ 50.00

€ 60.00

5 day Mov. Avg 2011

5 day Mov. Avg. 2012

€/M

Wh

Doel 3 Tihange 2

Price effect moderate

• Consequences for the Belpex hourly traded volume?o Summer period 2011 vs 2012o 5 day moving average

Who can solve the problem: the market?

01/M

ay

08/M

ay

15/M

ay

22/M

ay

29/M

ay

05/J

un

12/J

un

19/J

un

26/J

un

03/J

ul

10/J

ul

17/J

ul

24/J

ul

31/J

ul

07/A

ug

14/A

ug

21/A

ug

28/A

ug

04/S

ep

11/S

ep

18/S

ep

25/S

ep0.0

500.0

1,000.0

1,500.0

2,000.0

2,500.0

5 Day Mov. Avr 2012

5 Day Mov. Avr. 2011MW

h

Doel 3 Tihange 2

• Volumes on the Belpex have grown 21% year-on-year

• Traded volume: 20.8 % of the Belgian load

Who can solve the problem: TSO?

“Keep the lights on”

Responsibilities:• Exploitation and maintenance transmission grid

o Constant monitoring of system conditions o Ensure stable frequency level (50 Hz)o Ensure stable voltage levels

• Grid investementso Ensure security of supplyo Facilitate marketo Accomodate generation

• Interconnections with other control zones

Who can solve the problem: TSO?

• Constant monitoring of system conditionso State estimation

• To get best possible picture of system conditions• Find a best-fit load flow• Based on metered values

o Contingency analysis• N-1 security rule

• One accident cannot bring the system in danger• Redundancy

Who can solve the problem: TSO?

• Ensure stable frequency level (50 Hz)o Balance generation & demand

• Generation>Demand Frequency ↗• Generation<Demand Frequency ↘

o 5 steps to tackle a frequency drop in UCTE:

Frequency

Frequency (Hz) Actions

49.8 step 1 : activation of reserves in generation units

49 step 2 : 10-15 % load shedding

48.7 step 3 : additional 10-15 % load shedding

48.4 step 4 : additional 10-15 % load shedding

47.5 step 5 : all generation units operate in island-mode

Who goes first into the dark? Belgian load shedding plan is determined by law. http://staatsbladclip.zita.be/staatsblad/wetten/2005/08/18/wet-2005011264.html

Frequency

Source: Elia System Operator N.V.

•Primary control (0-30 seconds)oCompensate for short-term unbalances at local leveloStabilize frequency within range around set pointoFull automatic control

• e.g. -Generation units with speed control -Start-up/shutdown of pumping units

oProvided by many power plantsoPrimary reserves in former UCTE: 3000MW

• cfr. outage of 2 largest plants• of which ±100 MW reserved in Belgium

Who can solve the problem: TSO?

• Secondary control (30 sec – 15 min)o Control zone with a contingency acts to restore balanceo Adjusting output and start-up of reserve unitso 137 MW reserved in Belgiumo TSO sends signal to providers of secondary reserves

• Every 10 seconds• Providers respond automatically

o Typically gas fired CC units and pumped storageo Compensation

• Reservation Price• Activation Price

Who can solve the problem: TSO?

• Tertiary control (> 15 min)o Free & assist secondary controlo Manually controlledo Also interruptible load contractso Belgium: 400 MW generators, 261 MW interruptible load

Who can solve the problem: TSO?

2006 2007 2008 2009

Number of activations

2 0 5 11

Activated volume (MWh)

57 0 1007 1386

Average price of activation (€/MWh)

181 0 137 125

Who can solve the problem: TSO?

Tertiary Control: interruptible load

Selective load shedding

• After exhausting all other possibilities

• Elia will out role its selective load shedding plan:o Reduces the energy demand of a limited number of

consumers o Amount of time necessary

• Legislation determines which types of consumer are susceptible to outages in the first instance and which must have power

Who can solve the problem: TSO?

• Which type of consumer?o Economic value of Businesses <> Citizens

• Which Area?o Rural <> Dense populated areaso Economic value of provinces

Antwerp, Brussels <> Limburg

Who can solve the problem: TSO?

Who can solve the problem: TSO?

Economic value of businesses and households (2001)

Value per district (mlj €)

Who can solve the problem: TSO?

Also overgeneration may cause problemsIncompressibility of production: wind and solarLack of flexibilityCritical moments 2012

42

Who can solve the problem: TSO?

Offshore Grid Proposal by Statnett (Source Statnett, 2008)

Offshore Grid examined in the Greenpeace study (Source: Woyte et al, 2008)

Vision of High Voltage Super Grid (Source: Dowling and Hurley, 2004)

DLR

Czisch

BUT difficulties in transmission investments• Transmission grid remains a monopoly

o Regulated business• It is all about getting a fair long-term return on investment

o EU does not support merchant projectso How to convince private investors or nationalized ?

• Virtual moratorium on overhead lines• It takes ages to get permissions-Everyone hates them

o NIMBY syndrome• Not In My Back Yard

o NIMTO syndrome• Not In My Term of Office

o Even worse – people go BANANAs• Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anything

o Final result – CAVE people• Citizens Against Virtually Everything

Who can solve the problem: TSO?

44

• Generation-sideo Energy efficiencyo Nuclearo CCSo Renewables

Who can solve the problem: consumers?

• Demand-sideo Energy efficiency & Intelligent

consumption• Residential

• Smart appliances• Intelligent heating/cooling• insulation

• Transportation• Electric vehicles

Required paradigm shift on the demand-side

• Smart meters

Consumers respond to pricesignals

Consumers contribute to system balance

Investments in back-up generators

Who can solve the problem: consumers?

Ronnie Belmans - Areva T&D Comex meeting -

Bremen, Germany

46

Who can solve the problem: Smart grids?

User-centric

Stakeholder ownership

Networks renewal

Environmental policy

Distributed and central generation Demand response

Interoperable European Electricity Networks

Liberalisedmarkets

Why SmartGrids?

Ronnie Belmans - Areva T&D Comex meeting -

Bremen, Germany

47

From passive grids towards active grids

• Passive grids = Fit and Forgeto Fault detection: bidirectional flowso Power Quality: responsibility?o Voltage control: responsibility?o Grid Planning: deterministic peak planning, cfr ER P2/5 in UK

Significant grid problems at low levels of decentralized generation

• Active gridso Normal operation

• Curtailment of generation• Reactive power control• Coordinated voltage control by On-Load Tap Changing transformers• Voltage regulators in-line

o Fault situations

Who can solve the problem: Smart grids?

Ronnie Belmans - Areva T&D Comex meeting -

Bremen, Germany

48

Who can solve the problem: VPP?

Virtual Power Plants (VPP)Flexible representation of load & generation, acting as 1 entity towards DSO/TSO

Cell concept (Denmark)Hierarchical structure in the power system in which each cell coordinates local balance (market for DG), clears fault situations and communicates with other cells in energy trading

(Source: www.fenix-project.org) (Source: Risö)

49

• Virtual Power Plant: Dispersed generation Dispersed Storage Controllable loads

• Not necessarily by physically connecting plants but by interlinking them via soft technologies (ICT)

• VPP as key delivery mechanism to provide access of DERo to energy market (commercial aggregation)o to ancillary and network management services markets (grid

aggregation) The goal is to manage DER to provide as much services as a

conventional generators

Who can solve the problem: VPP?

Aggregated to work as a conventional power plant

50

• Advanced IT is the core element of a virtual power plant!

Who can solve the problem: VPP?

51

• Opportunities for VPP Dispatchability: Aggregation creates units dispatchable

by TSO (several MW) and DSO Visibility: Aggregators can give transparency to

TSO/DSO of their aggregated resources, providing real-time information

Deterministic behaviour: Adequate aggregation can perform close to conventional power plants (e.g.: Wind+CHP+DSM)

Entry of new agents: Non-network owners can create value thanks to the existing flexibility of DER and DSM

Who can solve the problem: VPP?

52

• Services of VPPo Locally performed ancillary services

• Voltage control and reactive power supply• Optimize grid losses, local power quality• Local (distribution network) congestion management• Islanded operation capacity

o System wide ancillary services Frequency control Active power reserve Network restoration

Who can solve the problem: VPP?

• Belgian generation capacityo Nuclear unavailability

-2014 MW due to vessel cracks

-1038 MW planned outage currently

o Loss of conventional generation

• European generation capacityo German nuclear phase out

-5,065 MW

Conclusion

• Lack on investment: need for a positive investment climateo Generation: flexible capacity + replacement aging

infrastructureo Transmission: supergrids

• TSO has a plan + different tools

• Smart grids offers new tools to balance the systemo Flexible consumerso VPP

Conclusion

We need it nowINVESTMENTS

• Need for energy policy

• Need for investment climate

• Need for permits

• Tell the truth

Final Conclusions