problÉmy eurozÓny
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PROBLÉMY EUROZÓNY
Jiří Schwarz
8. ročník Mezinárodní Baťovy konference Univerzita Tomáše Bati ve Zlíně
19. dubna 2012
• EU15: Belgium (BE), Greece (EL), Luxembourg (LU), Denmark (DK), Spain (ES), Netherlands (NL), Germany (DE), France (FR), Portugal (PT), Ireland (IE), Italy (IT), United Kingdom (UK), Austria (AT), Finland (FI), Sweden (SE)
• EA12: Belgium (BE), Spain (ES), Ireland (IE), Italy (IT), Luxembourg (LU), Netherlands (NL), Germany (DE), Finland (FI), France (FR), Austria (AT), Portugal (PT), Greece (EL)
• EA17: Belgium (BE), Spain (ES), Ireland (IE), Italy (IT), Luxembourg (LU), Netherlands (NL), Germany (DE), Finland (FI), France (FR), Austria (AT), Portugal (PT), Greece (EL), Slovenia (SI), Cyprus (CY), Malta (MT), Slovakia (SK), Estonia (EE)
I. Welfare state
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
GDP growth rates (at market prices)
Germany Ireland Greece SpainCzech Republic Slovakia EU15
Perc
enta
ge ch
ange
on
prev
ious
per
iod
Source: Eurostat
Introduction of the EURO
Greece joins EMU
Source: Eurostat
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
GDP in PPS per inhabitant (at market prices)
Germany Ireland GreeceSpain Czech Republic EU15
Purc
hasi
ng P
ower
Sta
ndar
d pe
r inh
abita
nt
Source: Eurostat
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Unemployment
Germany Ireland Greece SpainCzech Republic Slovakia EU15
Annu
al a
vera
ge (%
)
Source: Eurostat
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
Long-term unemployment
Germany Ireland Greece SpainCzech Republic Slovakia EU15
Perc
enta
ge o
f the
tota
l une
mpl
oym
ent
Source: OECD
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Current account
Germany Ireland GreeceSpain Italy Czech Republic
Perc
enta
ge o
f GDP
Source: Eurostat
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
Current account
Germany Ireland GreeceSpain Italy Czech Republic
Mill
ions
of e
uro
Source: Eurostat
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010-250,000
-200,000
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
Financial account
Germany Ireland GreeceSpain Italy Czech Republic
Mill
ions
of e
uro
Source: Eurostat
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Net saving
Germany Ireland GreeceSpain Czech Republic EU15
Perc
enta
ge o
f GDP
Source: Eurostat
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20138.0
13.0
18.0
23.0
28.0
33.0
38.0
Gross fixed capital formation
Germany Ireland GreeceSpain Czech Republic EU15
Perc
enta
ge o
f GDP
Source: Eurostat
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Nominal unit labour cost growth
Germany Ireland GreeceSpain Czech Republic EU15
Perc
enta
ge ch
ange
on
prev
ious
per
iod
Source: Eurostat
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Real unit labour cost growth
Germany Ireland GreeceSpain Czech Republic EU15
Perc
enta
ge ch
ange
on
prev
ious
per
iod
Source: Eurostat
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201190.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
Real unit labour cost
Germany Ireland GreeceSpain EU15 Czech Republic
Inde
x, 2
000=
100
Source: Eurostat
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201170.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
120.0
130.0
140.0
150.0
Nominal unit labour cost
Germany Ireland GreeceSpain EU15 Czech Republic
Inde
x, 2
000=
100
Source: OECD
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201010000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
Labour productivity per person employed
Germany Ireland Greece SpainItaly Czech republic Slovak republic
Euro
Source: Eurostat
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201190.0
100.0
110.0
120.0
130.0
140.0
150.0
160.0
170.0
180.0
Labour productivity per person employed
Germany Ireland Greece SpainEU15 Czech Republic Slovakia
Inde
x, 1
996=
100
Source: Eurostat
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201360.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
Final consumption expenditure
Germany Ireland GreeceSpain Czech Republic EU15
Perc
enta
ge o
f GDP
• Final consumption expenditure is expenditure by resident institutional units - including households and enterprises whose main economic centre of interest is in that economic territory - on goods or services that are used for the direct satisfaction of individual needs or wants or the collective needs of members of the community.
• A resident institutional unit is an institutional unit that is resident because it has a centre of economic interest in the economic territory of a country (or a grouping like the European Union (EU) or the euro area).
• The sectors of an economy are composed of two main types of institutional units:– households and individuals who make up a household;– legal and social entities, such as corporations and quasi-corporations (e.g.
branches of foreign direct investors), non-profit institutions, and the government of that economy.
Source: Eurostat
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201040.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
Final consumption expenditure of households
Germany Ireland GreeceSpain Italy Czech Republic
Perc
enta
ge o
f GDP
Source: Eurostat
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201345.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
Private final consumption expenditure
Germany Ireland GreeceSpain Czech Republic EU15
Perc
enta
ge o
f GDP
• Private final consumption expenditure includes NPISH's (non-profit institutions serving households) and households' final consumption expenditure. The household sector (ESA95, 2.75) consists of individuals or groups of individuals as consumers and possibly also as entrepreneurs producing market goods and non-financial and financial services (market producers) provided that, in the latter case, the corresponding activities are not those of separate entities treated as quasi-corporations. It also includes individuals or groups of individuals as producers of goods or non-financial services for exclusively own final use. Non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH, ESA95, 3.78 and 2.87) are separate legal entities serving households. They include for example trade unions, professional societies, political parties, churches, charities, sports clubs etc.
Source: Eurostat
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
Non-financial corporations´ financial liabilities
Germany Ireland Greece SpainItaly Czech Republic Slovakia
Perc
enta
ge o
f GDP
Source: Eurostat
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
Financial liabilities of households
Germany Ireland Greece SpainItaly Czech Republic Slovakia
Perc
enta
ge o
f GDP
Source: Eurostat
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
Private debt
Germany Ireland GreeceSpain Italy Czech Republic
Perc
enta
ge o
f GDP
II. Inability of governments to cut expenses
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
Government debt
Germany Ireland GreeceSpain Czech Republic EA17
Perc
enta
ge o
f GDP
Source: Eurostat
Maastricht criteria:Debt max 60% of GDP
Source: Eurostat
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201030.0
32.0
34.0
36.0
38.0
40.0
42.0
44.0
46.0
48.0
Government revenue
Germany Ireland Greece SpainCzech Republic Slovakia EU15
Perc
enta
ge o
f GDP
Source: Eurostat
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201030.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
Government expenditure
Germany Ireland Greece SpainCzech Republic Slovakia EU15
Perc
enta
ge o
f GDP
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010-31.0
-26.0
-21.0
-16.0
-11.0
-6.0
-1.0
4.0
Government deficit
Germany Ireland Greece SpainCzech Republic Slovakia EU15
Perc
enta
ge o
f GDP
Source: Eurostat
Maastricht criteria:Deficit max 3% of GDP
III. Monetary policy of ECB
Source: Eurostat
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
Inflation
Germany Ireland Greece SpainCzech Republic Slovakia EA12
Annu
al a
vera
ge ra
te o
f cha
nge
Source: ECB, Statistical Data Warehouse
1998Dec 1999Jun 2000Jan 2001Dec2002Apr 2002Oct2003May2004Jun 2005Jan 2006Dec2007Apr 2007Oct2008May2009Jun 2010Jan 2011Dec 2012Jan-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Monetary aggregate M3
M3
Perc
enta
ge ch
ange
Source: ECB, Statistical Data Warehouse
1/1/1999
1/6/1999
1/11/1
999
1/4/2000
1/9/2000
1/2/2001
1/7/2001
1/12/2001
1/5/2002
1/10/2
002
1/3/2003
1/8/2003
1/1/2004
1/6/2004
1/11/2
004
1/4/2005
1/9/2005
1/2/2006
1/7/2006
1/12/2006
1/5/2007
1/10/2
007
1/3/2008
1/8/2008
1/1/2009
1/6/2009
1/11/2
009
1/4/2010
1/9/2010
1/2/2011
1/7/2011
1/12/2
0110.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
Key ECB interest rates
Deposit facility Marginal lending facilityMain refinancing operations - fixed rate tenders Main refinancing operations - variable rate tenders
Perc
ent p
er a
nnum
Source: OANDA
1/12/1998
1/5/1999
1/10/1999
1/3/2000
1/8/2000
1/1/2001
1/6/2001
1/11/2
001
1/4/2002
1/9/2002
1/2/2003
1/7/2003
1/12/2
003
1/5/2004
1/10/2
004
1/3/2005
1/8/2005
1/1/2006
1/6/2006
1/11/2
006
1/4/2007
1/9/2007
1/2/2008
1/7/2008
1/12/2
008
1/5/2009
1/10/2
009
1/3/2010
1/8/2010
1/1/2011
1/6/2011
1/11/2
0110.600000000000001
0.700000000000001
0.800000000000001
0.900000000000001
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
EUR/USD
EUR/USD
• M3 = Currency in circulation + Overnight deposits + Deposits with an agreed maturity up to 2 years + Deposits redeemable at a period of notice up to 3 months + Repurchase agreements + Money market fund (MMF) shares/units + Debt securities up to 2 years
• Broad money (M3) comprises M2 and marketable instruments issued by the MFI sector. Certain money market instruments, in particular money market fund (MMF) shares/units and repurchase agreements are included in this aggregate. A high degree of liquidity and price certainty make these instruments close substitutes for deposits. As a result of their inclusion, M3 is less affected by substitution between various liquid asset categories than narrower definitions of money, and is therefore more stable.
Source: Ángel Martín Oro: FREE MARKET IS NOT TO BE BLAMED FOR THE PRIVATE DEBT BUBBLE: THE CASE OF SPAIN
Growth rate of M3 in Spain and in the EMU
Source: Ángel Martín Oro: FREE MARKET IS NOT TO BE BLAMED FOR THE PRIVATE DEBT BUBBLE: THE CASE OF SPAIN
Interest rates and credit to the housing sector in Spain (1993-2008)
Credit to housing Interest rates
Source: Eurostat
1993Q1
1993Q3
1994Q1
1994Q3
1995Q1
1995Q3
1996Q1
1996Q3
1997Q1
1997Q3
1998Q1
1998Q3
1999Q1
1999Q3
2000Q1
2000Q3
2001Q1
2001Q3
2002Q1
2002Q3
2003Q1
2003Q3
2004Q1
2004Q3
2005Q1
2005Q3
2006Q1
2006Q3
2007Q1
2007Q3
2008Q1
2008Q3
2009Q1
2009Q3
2010Q1
2010Q3
2011Q1
2011Q30.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
Interest rates on long-term government bonds
Belgium Germany Ireland Greece Spain France ItalyLuxembourg Netherlands Austria Portugal Slovenia Slovakia Finland
Source: BIS Locational banking statistics
1994-Q1
1994-Q3
1995-Q1
1995-Q3
1996-Q1
1996-Q3
1997-Q1
1997-Q3
1998-Q1
1998-Q3
1999-Q1
1999-Q3
2000-Q1
2000-Q3
2001-Q1
2001-Q3
2002-Q1
2002-Q3
2003-Q1
2003-Q3
2004-Q1
2004-Q3
2005-Q1
2005-Q3
2006-Q1
2006-Q3
2007-Q1
2007-Q3
2008-Q1
2008-Q3
2009-Q1
2009-Q3
2010-Q1
2010-Q3
2011-Q1
2011-Q3
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
International positions of EA banks: Claims on all sectors
Euro area
Mill
ions
of U
S do
llars
Source: BIS Locational banking statistics
1994-Q1
1994-Q3
1995-Q1
1995-Q3
1996-Q1
1996-Q3
1997-Q1
1997-Q3
1998-Q1
1998-Q3
1999-Q1
1999-Q3
2000-Q1
2000-Q3
2001-Q1
2001-Q3
2002-Q1
2002-Q3
2003-Q1
2003-Q3
2004-Q1
2004-Q3
2005-Q1
2005-Q3
2006-Q1
2006-Q3
2007-Q1
2007-Q3
2008-Q1
2008-Q3
2009-Q1
2009-Q3
2010-Q1
2010-Q3
2011-Q1
2011-Q3
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
International positions of EA banks: Claims on all sectors, liabilities to all sectors
Liabilities Claims
Mill
ions
of U
S do
llars
Core: Belgium, France, Germany, NetherlandsPeriphery: Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain
Source: BIS Consolidated BankStatistics
2000-Q1
2000-Q3
2001-Q1
2001-Q3
2002-Q1
2002-Q3
2003-Q1
2003-Q3
2004-Q1
2004-Q3
2005-Q1
2005-Q3
2006-Q1
2006-Q3
2007-Q1
2007-Q3
2008-Q1
2008-Q3
2009-Q1
2009-Q3
2010-Q1
2010-Q3
2011-Q1
2011-Q3
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
Gross cross-border bank claims
Core-to-periphery Core-to-core Periphery-to-periphery Periphery-to-core
Mill
ions
of U
S do
llars
Source: BIS Consolidated Statistics, Ultimate Risk Basis
2005-Q1
2005-Q2
2005-Q3
2005-Q4
2006-Q1
2006-Q2
2006-Q3
2006-Q4
2007-Q1
2007-Q2
2007-Q3
2007-Q4
2008-Q1
2008-Q2
2008-Q3
2008-Q4
2009-Q1
2009-Q2
2009-Q3
2009-Q4
2010-Q1
2010-Q2
2010-Q3
2010-Q4
2011-Q1
2011-Q2
2011-Q3
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
1000000
Exposure of core banks on periphery (gross claims)
Belgium German France Netherlands
Mill
ions
of U
S do
llars
Source: ECB,Monetary, financial markets and balance of payments statistics
Q1-2003
Q3-2003
Q1-2004
Q3-2004
Q1-2005
Q3-2005
Q1-2006
Q3-2006
Q1-2007
Q3-2007
Q1-2008
Q3-2008
Q1-2009
Q3-2009
Q1-2010
Q3-2010
Q1-2011
Q3-2011
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
Securities and loands held by EA banks, cross-border positions
Total securities Up to 1 year 1 to 2 years Over 2 years Loans
Billi
ons o
f Eur
o
Billi
ons o
f Eur
o
Source: Lazard Insights: The European Debt Crisis, Quantitative Easing, Basel III: An Outlook for 2011
Source: Bloomberg
5Y Credit Default Swaps
Source: Boone, Johnson: Europe on the Brink (2011)
5Y Credit Default Swaps
IV. The case of Ireland
Source: Eurostat
1993Q1
1993Q4
1994Q3
1995Q2
1996Q1
1996Q4
1997Q3
1998Q2
1999Q1
1999Q4
2000Q3
2001Q2
2002Q1
2002Q4
2003Q3
2004Q2
2005Q1
2005Q4
2006Q3
2007Q2
2008Q1
2008Q4
2009Q3
2010Q2
2011Q1
2011Q42
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Ireland: Interest rates on long-term government bonds
Germany Ireland
Source: CSO
1991Q1
1991Q4
1992Q3
1993Q2
1994Q1
1994Q4
1995Q3
1996Q2
1997Q1
1997Q4
1998Q3
1999Q2
2000Q1
2000Q4
2001Q3
2002Q2
2003Q1
2003Q4
2004Q3
2005Q2
2006Q1
2006Q4
2007Q3
2008Q2
2009Q1
2009Q4
2010Q30
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
Ireland: New House Prices
New House Prices (Euro)
Euro
Source: CSO
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
Ireland: Annual House Completions
Annual House Completions
Source: CSO: Construction and Housing in Ireland (2008 Edition), DKM
House completions per 1,000 of population 2007
Source: Dr. Alan Aherane: Ireland´s Economic Crisis: Implications for the Labour Market (2010)
Ireland: Housing investment as percentage of GDP
Source: OECD
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20106
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Ireland: Construction as share of total employment
Germany Ireland GreeceSpain Italy Czech Republic
Perc
enta
ge o
f the
tota
l em
ploy
men
t
Source: CSO: Construction and Housing in Ireland (2008 Edition), Eurostat
Construction as share of total employment 2007
Source: John A. Moran, Banking Policy Division: Restructuring of the Irish Banking System (March 2011)
Ireland: Credit allocation
Source: J. Hurley: The Irish Banking Crisis Regulatory and Financial Stability Policy 2003-2008
• Stamp duty is a tax the government levies on the purchase of all residential property whether new or old.
• A capital gains tax is chargeable on the gains arising from the disposals of assets. Any form of property (other than Irish currency) including an interest in property (as, for example, a lease) is an asset for capital gains tax.
• Corporation tax in the Republic of Ireland is a levy on a company’s profits. The tax is charged on both a company's income and chargeable gains.
Source: Kitchen et al.: A Haunted Landscape: Housing and Ghost Estates in Post-Celtic Tiger Ireland (2010)
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