prism update

PRISM Update

Christopher DalyDirector, PRISM Climate Group

Northwest Alliance for Computational Science and EngineeringCollege of Engineering

Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR

Topics

• 1981-2010 Normals

• USDA Risk Management Agency Project

PRECIPITATIONAll Stations With at Least ONE Qualifying Month (>= 85%, 5 yrs west, 10 east)

1971-2000: 13,648 Stations

West East

PRECIPITATIONAll Stations With at Least ONE Qualifying Month (>= 85%, 5 yrs west, 10 east)

1981-2010: 19,817 Stations

West East

PRECIPITATIONAll Stations With at Least ONE Qualifying Month (>= 85%, 5 yrs west, 10 east)

1981-2010: 20,188 Stations

EC1899

SFWMD438

OK MESONET108 COOP

11,613

NDSWC759

MNHIDEN490

ICN14COCORAHS

736

SNOWCOURSE510

HDSC434

CDEC608

SNOTEL711

RAWS 42

AGRIMET66 WBAN

988

West East

Temperature1971-2000: ~11,7001981-2010: ~16,700

1971-2000 Mean Annual Precipitation

1981-2010 Mean Annual Precipitation

1971-2000 Mean Annual Maximum Temperature

1981-2010 Mean Annual Maximum Temperature

1971-2000 Mean Annual Minimum Temperature

1981-2010 Mean Annual Minimum Temperature

Federal Crop Insurance Basics

• Federal crop insurance program covers about $110 billion in crop value

~80% participation nationwide for major crops

• Sold and delivered by 16 private insurance companies

• USDA Risk Management Agency (RMA) oversees and re-insures

• Largest number of insurance claims are for drought, excessive moisture, heat, cold, and hail – WEATHER

Typical Cause-of-Loss Language

• “Crop could not be planted due to excessively wet conditions”

• “Harvest was delayed and crop quality was reduced due to cold and wet weather”

• “Crop was damaged due to unusually hot weather”

How do claims managers evaluate whether it was too wet, too dry, too cold or too hot?

PRISM Support for Crop InsuranceCompliance

• Provide high-quality weather and climate maps to expedite claims

– Did the claimed damaging event occur?

• Short time scale: Daily and monthly PRISM maps over the lower 48 states in near real time

– Was the event unusual enough to warrant payment?

• Long time scale: Climatic context for the event

– Make the assessment process quick and easy

• Web-based tools

PRISM/RMA Weather & Climate Portal• New portal being

developed for RMA– Provides fast access to

quality climate data– Incorporates usability

engineering so it’s easier to use and produces info relevant to RMA needs

• Initial prototype focuses on 4 key ways users need to find and apply weather&climate data

Recent Conditions

Recent Conditions

Summary Assessment: Tallahassee, FL, June 2012

Classification Scheme – 30 Years

90-100th123456789

101112131415161718192021222324252627282930

UnusuallyWet

Wet

Typical

Dry

UnusuallyDry

123456789

101112131415161718192021222324252627282930

70-90th

30-70th

10-30th

0-10th

UnusuallyWarm

Warm

Typical

Cool

UnusuallyCool

PrecipitationPrecipitation TemperatureTemperaturePercentile Range

Rank Rank

View Details

Detailed Data: Ft. Collins, CO

Task 4: Generate Customized Report

• Select a 16-month "insurance period" and location

• Get an on-demand prevented planting report

• Future plans– Other types of reports

Customized Report• Report style based on

manually-created versions that were used successfully in court cases

• Generates usable English-language text

Customized Report:Interactive Tables and Graphs

Customized Report:Maps of Cumulative

Precipitation Compared to

Normal

16-month 12-month

6-month 3-month

1-month

Customized Report:Summary Section

How Can Growers Participate in the Weather and Climate Assessment Process?

• Growers live and breath the weather!

• Many take their own precipitation measurements

• We cannot accept these measurements because of unknown methods and equipment

• But there is now a way for them to participate…

Community Collaborative Rain, Hail & Snow Network

Next Steps for the Portal

• Coming next week:

– 1981-2010 monthly normals

– Daily precipitation

• Coming this fall:

– Daily normals

– Radar-enhanced precipitation

• Public access? Still unsure, probably a year out