presidential primaries:

Presidential Primaries:

How Iowa, New Hampshire, andWeird Rules Determine Who Wins

Presidential Primaries:

Or, Who is going to Iowa & the GOP Nomination?

How it used to work National nominating conventions

Selection of delegates controlled by party officials

Many / most delegates uncommitted

Example. 1960 Kennedy vs. Nixon

To gain party nomination, JFK had to convince party leaders he could win

Entered West Virginia primary election

“Real” choice made inside the national convention meeting

Before 1972 Most states did not have public primary or caucus

In 1960, only 25% of delegates to convention selected by voters

By 2000 70 - 85% selected by voters and bound to candidate on 1st ballot at convention

Today Primaries or Caucuses

Primary = vote “directly” for candidate (or for delegates pledged to a candidate).

Caucus = vote at a public meeting to elect delegates

The Demise of Nominating Conventions

Old system failed to reflect what voters wanted (sometimes)

Gave “too much” control to party leaders

Party leaders had to worry about finding a candidate that they could work with

Chicago, 1968 Incumbent President was LB Johnson Vietnam War in 4th year:

Tet Offensive, 31 Jan 1968

New Hampshire Primary, March 1968 McCarthy 42% LBJ 49% LBJ wins, but....

RFK enters race days latter G. Wallace saying he’ll runs as 3rd Party

Chicago, 1968 LBJ drops out of 1968 race in March 1968 Vice President HHH says he’ll run Primaries & Delegates prior to convention:

RFK won 4 258 delegates McCarthy won 5 393 delegates HHH didn't run 561 delegates

Chicago 1968 RFK assassinated June 1968

Convention in August:video

Chicago, 1968 Democratic

Convention Vote:

HHH 1759McCarthy 601McGovern 146Philips 67Moore 17

After Chicago Democrats split, lose

to Nixon Rule of ‘party bosses’

challenged by McCarthy, McGovern

Reform commission established

State laws changed

Post 1968 Reforms New Nomination Rules:

most delegates must be selected by voters but how?

caucuses with open participation primaries, with candidates on ballot Proportionality (Democrats) maximize women & minorities at Dem convention

Post 1968 reforms What is a political party?

voters? elected officials? elites in party organization (DNC, RNC)?

Since 1972 National parties kept tinkering with rules:

how award state’s delegates? winner take all? proportional to voter support? PLEOS?

who can participate only registered partisans? independents

what schedule, when start? March, then February, then January...

1972 - 2008 The Carter Model, 1976

outsider candidate ‘beats’ party establishment Gary Hart ‘84; John McCain 2000; Obama ‘08

The Mondale/Clinton Model, 1984 Super-delegates (PLEOs)

from 75% voter selected to 54%

Frontloading and Super Tuesdays

Frontloading1984 IA Feb 20 NH Feb 28 50% selected

by May 20th 1988 IA Feb 8 NH Feb 16

1992 IA Feb 10 NH Feb 18

1996 IA Feb 12 NH Feb 20

2000 IA Jan 24 NH Feb 1

2004 IA Jan 19 NH Jan 27

2008 IA Jan 3 NH Jan 8 50% selected by Feb 9th

Frontloading 1976, 12 weeks until 50% of all

delegates awarded

2008, 4 weeks until 50% of all delegates awarded

Differences Dems vs. Republicans Schedules

Dems tougher on penalties for jumping the gun Proportionality

A Democratic thing; GOP winner take all Super Delegates

A Democratic thing Republicans more predictable

Democrats = chaos

To summarize Party Conventions used to pick nominees

Voters in primaries / caucuses now pick

Primary / caucus rules matter what state goes first? how allocate delegates?

Iowa, 2012: RCP poll average Romney 22.8% Paul 21.5% Santorum 16.3% Gingrich 13.7% Perry 11.5% Bachman 6.8%

Iowa, 2012 Why so much attention?

2008 165 stories on CNN 2008 160 stories on ABC 2008 900 AP stories 2008 380 stories NYT 2012: 40+ NYT stories since Dec 24th

Iowa, 2012 What effects of tonight’s vote?

Who stays in race? Who drops out? Does any other state play this role? Why Iowa?

Iowa, 2012 Can any candidate remain viable if not in

the top 3 out of Iowa? Bachmann – done.

Iowa, 2012 Can any candidate remain viable if not in

the top 3 out of Iowa? Perry – done.

Iowa, 2012 Can any candidate remain viable if not in

the top 3 out of Iowa? Newt – walking dead?

Iowa, ‘predicted’ result: Romney 28% Paul 18% Santorum 15% Gingrich 15% Perry 9% Bachmann whatever…