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presented byEvis C. Couppis, PhD, P.E.
Planning in a Carbon- Constrained World
R. W. Beck, Inc.
IPED COAL POWER CONFERENCE
January 18-19, 2007 St. Petersburg, FL
Agenda
Characterize CO2 emissions
Identify possible CO2 capture/sequestration options
Review CO2 capture/sequestration costs
Review possible CO2 allowance pricing
Identify planning options going forward
Will We Get CO2 Legislation?
In 2004, 60% of utilities surveyed believed we will get legislation
In 2006, 93% of utilities surveyed believed we will get legislation
We already have legislation in California and other programs such as RGGI in Northeast
The real issue isn’t whether it will happen but when it will happen
2006 U.S. CO2 Emissions
Sector MMetric Tons
TOTAL 5941
Power 2357
Transportation 1962
Industrial 1050
Residential 351
Commercial 221
EIA (2006)
U.S. CO2 Emissions by Sector
Power39%
Transportation33%
Industrial18%
Commercial4%
Residential6%
EIA (2006)
U.S. CO2 Emissions by Fuel Type
Petroleum 43%
Natural Gas20%
Coal37%
Other 0%
EIA (2006)
U.S. CO2 Emissions From Power Generation
Coal82%
Petroleum3%
Other 1%
Gas14%
EIA (2006)
U.S. Electricity Sector by Fuel Type, Qbtu
Coal53%
Gas15%
Nuclear20%
Renewables10%
Imports0%
Petroleum2%
EIA (2006)
CO2 Emissions by Technology/Fuel Type
PC 0.95
Gas Combined Cycle 0.41
IGCC 0.88
Technology/Fuel TypeEmissions, Tons/Mwhr
Carbon Capture Options
Amine scrubbing Amine-based solid sorbent Selexol process Rectisol process Aqueous ammonia scrubbing Aqueous ammonia multi-pollutant capture PC oxy-fuel combustion, cryogenic ASU PC oxy-fuel combustion, oxygen-selective membrane ASU Co-sequestration of CO2/SO2/NOx
Carbon Sequestration Options
Injection into oil/gas reservoirs Injection into deep, unmineable coal seams Injection into saline aquifers Injection into deep oceans Indirect sequestration (trees)
Cost Impacts of CO2
Capture/Sequestration
What are impacts if new plants were equipped with CO2 capture/sequestration?
Under stringent regulations – approximately 90% removal Under a cap and trade system, these capture/sequestration
costs may not represent the most cost effective option The costs presented are order of magnitude at best The costs of CO2 control under a cap and trade would depend
on all available options to generate credits/reductions/offsets Costs would be dependent on the stringency of the regulations
Heat Rate Impacts
NETL(2006), MPR Associates (June 2005), Bechtel (November 2002)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Perc
ent I
ncre
ase
Technology Type
PC
PCSC
IGCC
NGCC
Capital Cost Impacts
NETL(2006), MPR Associates (June 2005), Bechtel (November 2002)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Perc
ent I
ncre
ase
Technology Type
PCPCSC
IGCC
NGCC
Cost of Electricity Impacts
NETL(2006), MPR Associates (June 2005), Bechtel (November 2002)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Perc
ent I
ncre
ase
Technology Type
PCPCSC
IGCC NGCC
CO2 Avoided Costs
Cost of CO2 avoided=
($/Mwhr)capture – ($/Mwhr)reference ∕
(tCO2/Mwhr)reference – (tCO2/Mwhr)capture
Note: Mwhr based on net power
Possible Allowance Pricing
In Europe, 5-30 Euros/ton with an average approximately 15 Euros (2005-2006)
Southern Company Report (May 2005) estimates, high of $7 in 2010-$20/ton in 2030 (2004$); medium of $6-$7/ton
National Energy Commission recommended $7/ton in 2010 escalating 5%/year
ICF (January 2006) estimates, high of $10 in 2010-$20/ton in 2025 (2003$); expected $5-$15/ton
Will CO2 Costs be Fully Recoverable?
Depends on your generation mix
Depends on regulated vs. unregulated market
Depends on whether gas or coal is on margin
Gas will likely be impacted more than coal
Utility Planning Steps
Quantify present emissions Take advantage of easy efficiency
improvements (pick low hanging fruit)
Consider CO2 regulations/legislation in planning (particularly in technology selection)
Conduct risk analysis (level of regulation, timing, etc.)
Questions
Evis C. Couppis, PhD, P.E.R. W. Beck, Inc.
ecouppis@rwbeck.com(303) 299-5230
IPED COAL POWER CONFERENCE
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