presentation to the eilat-eilot green...

Presentation to the

Eilat-Eilot Green Energy6th International Conference & Exhibition

Eilat, Israel Dr. James A. Walker

9 December 2014 Princeton Energy Group

The Water Energy NexusIn a Climate Driven Society:

Can California Cope?

Dr. James WalkerPrinceton Energy Group

The Water Energy NexusEilat-Eilot Green Energy

Outline• The Drivers

• The Energy Front

• The Water Front

• The Nexus

Disclaimer: All views expressed herein are the

personal opinions of James A. Walker and not official

policy of any company, agency or other organization

The Water Energy NexusEilat-Eilot Green Energy Rebranding Needed Here

Global Temperature Increasing

• The Water Front

• The Nexus

Milestones in California Energy Policy

• 1972 – Santa Barbara Oil Spill/RAND Corporation Energy Futures Study

• 1975 -1984 – Jerry Brown is youngest Governor of CA

• 1975 – California Energy Commission established – Joins CPUC and CARB as key agencies

• 1977 – Last nuclear plant proposed in CA cancelled – the “soft path” taken

• 1979-1986 – CA builds 10,000 MW of Alternative generation – 25% of load

• 1987-1999 – CA forgets about renewables

• 2000-2001 – CA tries electric sector deregulation – Enron wins, everyone else loses; Brown’s former Chief of Staff replaced by the Governator

• 2006 – AB 32 enacted – Requires GHG emissions 80% below 1990 by 2050; upheld by 62/34% majority in 2010 referendum

• 2010-2018 – Jerry Brown is oldest Governor of California

• 2011 – Bill enacted requiring 33% renewable generation by 2020.

• 2013 – Obama Climate Action Plan announced

1972 – Utility Forecasts Imply Need for a 1200 MW plant every 7 miles along the CA Coast by

year 2000

California Per Capita Electricity Use Constant Since 1975

Efficiency Works!

CA Will Have 33% Renewable Energy in Electric Generation by 2020

Hydro over 30 MW not included

DeCarbonizing the Whole System by 2050

• The Water Front

• The Nexus

Milestones in California Water Policy

• 1848 – Gold Rush – leads to system of Appropriated Water Rights (“Use it or Lose it”)

• 1902-1928 – CA Water Wars - LA Aqueduct

• 1904 – Construction accident creates Salton Sea (350 sq. mi.)

• 1924 – Worst draught in precipitation terms (not damages)

• 1930s – High Lift turbine pumps developed to tap deep ground water

• 1933 – Federal Central Valley Project to bring NoCal water to Central Valley farms and cities

• 1936 – Hoover Dam completed on Colorado River

• 1959-67 - Pat Brown Governor - State Aqueduct project

• 1975-2014 – Ongoing debate over canal/tunnel in Northern CA Delta

• 2014 - Drought most damaging in CA history

• 2014 - $7.5B Water Bond approved by voters

Hydraulic Mining for Gold(It seemed like progress at the time)

Precipitation vs. Population

Feast or Famine

Major Water

Projects

Federal – Central Valley

Project (CVP)

State – State Water

Project (SWP)

Local – Many other

projects throughout state,

including Colorado River

system, Hetch Hetchy,

EBMUD, Owens ValleySource: Water Environment Foundation

California Drought 2014

Current Snapshot

Drought Monitor

Local Emergencies Declared

• 23 Counties

• 13 Cities

• 08 Tribal Reservations

• 11 Special Districts

County & Tribal Drought

Task Force

• 30 Counties

• 02 Tribes

Official State of Emergency Declared in California on January 17, 2014

Jan 18, 2013 Jan 18, 2014

Selected impacts• 430,000+ acres fallowed

• Diminished yield on others

• 17,000+ out of work

• Communities running out of drinking water

• Fish and wildlife impacts

• Increased wildfires=$$, ecological devastation, air, land, and water impacts

Solution set—now and future• Every region different, not one answer, but suite of answers• Integrated Water Management at all levels; more regional water

security• Conservation/Recycling/Stormwater/Desalination• Storage and Conveyance• Dealing with the Delta• Accelerating groundwater contamination

prevention/treatment/use• Upper watershed connection/management• Multiple benefit thinking across departments and disciplines;

rewarding and promoting voluntary solutions; moving beyond comfortable rhetoric to action

• “All of the above” not “either/or”

Comment: Need to add Markets and Pricing

Voters OK $7.5 B CA Water Bond• Water Storage

• Watershed/Restoration

• Groundwater

• Regional reliability

• Recycling

• Clean Drinking Water

• Flood Management

• $2,700 million

• $1,405 million

• $ 900 million

• $ 810 million

• $ 735 million

• $ 520 million

• $ 395 million

• The Water Front

• The Nexus

Energy Technologies Arrived “Just in Time”

If Deployed at Scale & Costs Fairly Shared

Wind and Solar Can Scale Rapidly

61GW & 47,000 Wind Turbines in US

See interactive map of every turbine at: http://eerscmap.usgs.gov/windfarm/

What Gets Rewarded Gets Done

•Federal Tax Incentives, power contracts and financing based on production not investment

•Drives long term productivity in site selection, turbine performance and reliability, environmental mitigation, local benefits

•US wind plants 2 times as productive as China per MW

Wall Street Declares Efficiency, Wind & Solar the Low Cost Winners (with or without subsidies)

Efficiency $0/MWH Wind $37/MWH $60/MWH

The PV Pimple

“Duck Curve” Caused by High Levels of PV

Reference Duck

13,000 MW ramp in 2 hrs

www.lowcarbongrid2030.org

The IPP Answer

Creating New Energy Markets is Crucial• Wholesale power now paid on $/kWH basis with

some time of day pricing

– Some “Resource Adequacy” value for solar’s predictability

• “Behind the Meter” solar growing rapidly – gets retail price but payment for grid services open issue

• “Energy Imbalance Market” recently established by California system operator to allow utilities outside the system to meet needs on a 5 minute basis

• Tariffs and markets needed for future “ancillary services” including storage, ramping, voltage support, etc.

Innovation in WaterCategories of Technology

• Supply Enhancement– Desalination

– Recycling and reclamation

• Demand Management– Smart meters

– Irrigation controllers

– Drip irrigation

• Governance Improvement– Advanced data collection

– Leak detection

Types of Innovation

• Smart Water

• Efficiency and Conservation

• Purification

• Alternative sources

• Storage

• Groundwater

Investment in Innovation in US Clean Energy and Water Sectors 2000-2013

Do not laugh at biomimicry: the battery was invented by Alessandro Volt in

1700 trying to reproduce the structure of the electric eel. (NYT 8 Dec 2014)

Creating Water Markets is Crucial• Historical solutions no longer viable:

– More diversions, more dams and reservoirs, using more groundwater

– Few incentives for water conservation or reuse

• “Shopping for Water”* Proposals:

– Reform rules that discourage trading

– Create market institutions to facilitate trading

– Use risk mitigation to enhance reliability

– Protect groundwater resources

– Need for Federal and State leadership*”Shopping for Water: How the Market Can Mitigate Water Shortages in the American

West” Culp, Glennan, Libecap, The Hamilton Project ,Discussion Paper 2014-06,

October 2014

Policy Principles• Leadership really matters

• What gets rewarded gets done

• You cannot manage what you are not measuring

• Markets are a useful tool, not a panacea or a religion

– Proper pricing is the best policy

– Pricing structures almost impossible to change – that’s how the vested interests bought their vests

• Enlightened regulation is rare but not an oxymoron

– One Stop Siting for Desalination as for Power Plants

• The challenges ahead are global and intergenerational – but so was the Cold War

Can California Cope?

Of course!

(with some help from its friends)

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