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8/3/2019 Presentation Graedel
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Industrial Ecology,Resource Decoupling, and
the “Master Equation”
Thomas E. Graedel
Yale University
Center for Industrial EcologyYale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies
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1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
Year
Global Zinc Use, 1700-2000
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Global per Capita Metals Use in the 20th Century
0.1
1.0
10.0
100.0
1000.0
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
M i n e P r o d u c t i o n P e r C a p i t a R e l a t i v e t o 1 9 0 0
Al
Cr
Ni
Cu
WZnFe
AuPbAg
Sn
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Histories of Australian Ore Grades, 1845-2007Source: G.M. Mudd, Sustainability of Mining in Australia, Research Report No. RR5, Monash Univ.,
2007.
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Is this a recipe for trouble?
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Defining Decoupling
economic activity(GDP)
resource use
resource use
TIME
relative
decoupling
absolute
decoupling
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1 9 9 3
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2 0 0 2
t h o u
s a n d y
e n / m e t r
i c t o n
Japanese Resource Decoupling
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Overall Environmental/Sustainability Impact =
Pop. x GDP x resource use x envt./sust. impact
person GDP unit of resource use
The “Master Equation”
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Source: www.faculty.fairfield.edu/.../Oct16/Part4.html
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Copper Stock per capita
137 kg Cu 35 kg Cu
New Haven Beijing
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Copper Stock and Copper Need
137 kg Cu 137 kg Cu
New Haven Beijing
Global need in 2040
1.3 Pg Cu
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Limits to Materials:Copper Stock and Copper Supply
137 kg Cu 137 kg Cu
New Haven Beijing
Global need in 2040 Global resource
1.3 Pg Cu 1.6 Pg Cu
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http://www.allaboardwashington.org/cms/images/uploads/Trains_Crop2.jpg
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A Typical Water Treatment System
http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://civil.engr.siu.edu/Ray_H2ODsn/images/WTPAerial1.jpg&imgrefurl=http://civil.engr.siu.edu/Ray_H2ODsn/Default.asp&usg=__WrYw0oEkKBTB3yzEETk4P87ga3w=&h=438&w=500&sz=97&hl=en&start=5&tbnid=fsIDd54infh_bM:&tbnh=114&tbnw=130&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dwater%2Btreatment%2Bplant%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DX
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Copper Use as a Function of Wealth
0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0
G D P p e r c a p i ta , P P P (c u rre n t in t e rn a t io n a l $ )
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4
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1 2
C o p p e r p e r C a p i t a E n t e r i n
g U s e ( k g / y r )
S o u th K o re aM a l a y si a
N o r w a y
U S A
I s r a e lJ a p a n
G e r m a n y
K a z a k h s t a n
U z b e k i s t a n
S a u d i A r a b i a
d a t a se t w i t h o u t H o n g K o n g & S i n g a p o re
F r a n c e
A r g e n t i n a
b ( 1 )
N e w Z e a l a n d
U A E
I n d i a
A u s t r i a
0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0
G D P p e r c a p i ta , P P P (c u rre n t in t e rn a t io n a l $ )
0
4
8
1 2
C o p p e r p e r C a p i t a E n t e r i n
g U s e ( k g / y r )
S o u th K o re aM a l a y si a
N o r w a y
U S A
I s r a e lJ a p a n
G e r m a n y
K a z a k h s t a n
U z b e k i s t a n
S a u d i A r a b i a
d a t a se t w i t h o u t H o n g K o n g & S i n g a p o re
F r a n c e
A r g e n t i n a
b ( 1 )
N e w Z e a l a n d
U A E
I n d i a
A u s t r i a
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The Master Equation
2050
/2010 1.5 3 2 ??
Overall Environmental Impact =
Population x GDP x resource use x environmental impactperson GDP unit of resource use
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Environmental Improvement
in The Netherlands
100
GDP
CO2 emissions
Wastegeneration
Time1980 2010
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20 24 29
68 7095
130 142160 164
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L e a d
C o l d r o l l e d s t e e
l
G a l v a n i z e d s t e e
l
H D - P E
P P
A B S
N y l o n 6
C h r o m e s t e e
l
M a g n e s i u m
N y l o n 6 . 6
A l u m i n u m s h e e t
T i t a n i u m
20 24 29
68 7095
130 142160 164
225
263
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100
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300
L e a d
C o l d r o l l e d s t e e
l
G a l v a n i z e d s t e e
l
H D - P E
P P
A B S
N y l o n 6
C h r o m e s t e e
l
M a g n e s i u m
N y l o n 6 . 6
A l u m i n u m s h e e t
T i t a n i u m P
r i m a r y E n e r g
y C o n s u m p t i o
n ( M J / k g )
Embedded Energy for Different Industrial Materials
Source: M. Schukert et al., 3 rd Intl. Conf. Ecomaterials., Tokyo, 1997
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Highland Valley Canada Copper Mine Empoundment
Source: swittersb.wordpress.com/2008/08/
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Implications for Policy of
Resource Supply and Use• Virgin resources are being used at increasing rates
• We demand resources without a good idea of theultimate quantities available for extraction
• The master equation demonstrates that absolutedecoupling will be a product of addressing the technical
and societal relationships that link personal wealth,development, and consumption
• New recycling technology and design for recycling willhelp, but major cultural changes to “dematerialize” wantsand needs are probably the most effective way to insurelong term sustainability
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The Challenge of Decoupling Needs and Wantsfrom Their Realization
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