presentation

(C) Ören - 2004-09-15 - Modeling and simulation: a tour d'horizon

Growing Importance of Modelling and Simulation: Professional and Ethical

Implications

École Polytechnique Universitaire de MarseilleDépartement de Génie Industriel et Informatique

Université de Provence – Aix-Marseille I September 15, 2004 - Marseille, France

Tuncer ÖrenM&SNet (McLeod Modeling and Simulation Network) : OC-MISS (Ottawa Center of the MISS)University of Ottawa Ottawa, ON, Canada http://www.site.uottawa.ca/~oren

“The greater a man the larger his horizon”John McLeod

“We often fail to realize how little we know about a thing until we attempt to simulate it on a computer”

Donald Knuth, 1968

1. Terminology

2. Types of usages

3. Some advancement areas

4. Professionalism

5. Importance and responsibilities

6. Ethical implications

Experimentation

is one of the key concepts in scientific thinking since Francis Bacon (1561-1626) who advocated it in 1620 in his Novum Organum. (New Instrument)

Bacon’s work was a categorical departure from and reaction to “Organon” (the Instrument) which was the title of logical works of Aristotle (384-322 B.C.) which itself had an “unparalleled influence on the history of Western thought.”

Two meanings of “simulation”:

“Not real, imitation, feign”

A nontechnical term

(simulated pearl, simulated leather)

“All but war is simulation” STRICOM (this view is already changed)

[live simulation]

A technical term

Two meanings of “simulation”:

“Not real, imitation, feign”

A nontechnical term

(simulated pearl, simulated leather)

“All but war is simulation” STRICOM

[live simulation] system model

Goal-directed experimentation with dynamic models.

A technical term

Experimental conditions

experimentation simulation

Simulation

is goal-directed experimentation with dynamic models, i.e., models with time-dependent behavior.

Modeling and Simulation Terminology:

A joint project to develop a Multilingual dictionary of modeling and simulation:

English, French, Spanish, Turkish

With the collaboration of the following member organizations of M&SNet:

(http://www.site.uottawa.ca/~oren/SCS_MSNet/MSNet-excom.htm)OC-MISS (Canada), LSIS (France), MSDS (Spain)

1. Terminology

2. Types of usages

4. Professionalism

Simulation and the real system are used together:

purpose:

Types of usages of “simulation”:

2. On-line usage of simulation

(Integrated use of simulation)

purpose:

1. Stand-alone usage of simulation

Decision making

Prediction: (behavior prediction or performance prediction) of the system of interest within the constraints inherent in the simulation model (e.g., model granularity) Test of hypothesesEvaluation of alternative models, parameters, experimental and/or operating conditions on model behavior or performanceSensitivity analysisEngineering designPrototypingPlanningAcquisitionProof of concept

Purpose:- Teaching / enhancing ability of business leaders, warfighters (business gaming, war gaming)

– single simulation, interoperability of federates)- Teaching / enhancing ability of peace builders / peace keepers (peace keeping simulation, crisis management simulation)

Stand-alone usage of simulation To enhance (training) decision making skills:(constructive simulation)

Model and experimental conditions are used to enhance decision making skills (training) (Simulation games)

Purpose:- Teaching / enhancing ability to drive a vehicle (aircraft simulator, tank simulator, submarine simulator, ...)- Teaching / enhancing ability to use a hardware (torpedo simulator)

Stand-alone usage of simulation To enhance (training) motor skills:(virtual simulation)

Model (i.e., a simulator) is used in emulation mode,

i.e., model is not used for experimentation but is used in lieu of the real system (i.e., model acts as a virtual equipment)

Usages of Simulation:

Stand-alone simulation activity: the simulation program runs independently from the system of interest.

Five categories of purpose:

1. Decision making

2. Training to enhance decision skills (gaming simulation) constructive simulation

3. Training to enhance motor skills (simulators) virtual simulation

4. Understanding and education

5 Entertainment (simulation games, animation of dynamic systems)

Simulation and the real system are used together:

purpose:

Types of usages of “simulation”:

2. On-line usage of simulation(Integrated use of simulation)

purpose:

1. Stand-alone usage of simulation

2.2 enrich

Real system and simulation operate

alternately simultaneously

real system operation2.1 support

Purpose: To support operation of the real system by providing 1. predictive displays 2. On-line diagnosis abilities

2. On-line (integrated) usage of simulation 2.1 to support real-system:

- gets the time-varying information about the environment of the system, directly through sensors and A/D convertors,

- gets the values of the control variables, from the system through transducers, and

- displays the predicted state (trajectory) of the system.

During the operation of a real system, a simulator of the system,

By using a predictive display,

Decision maker/operator can base his/her decision(s) on:- system characteristics (as represented in the model) and - facts as generated by the simulator;Instead of using an undocumented mental model.

On-line diagnosis abilities can be provided by comparing the outputs of the real system and the simulator working under same conditions.

A discrepency may indicate a misfunction of the system.

Purpose:During the operation of the real system, real and virtual entities - humans, avatars, - equipment, and - environment can co-exist.Hence, enhanced reality / augmented reality operations.

2. On-line usage of simulation 2.2 to enrich/augment real-system:

Relationship of operator/equipment in augmented reality simulation:

Real operator uses real equipment with [real and] virtual weapon

(live simulation)

Real operator uses virtual (simulated) equipment (i.e.,

simulator) (virtual simulation)

Virtual operator uses real equipment (automated

(virtual) pilot)

Virtual operator uses virtual equipment (real operators can

interact via HMD; e.g., AI airplane in dogfight)

equipment

real virtual (simulated)

Usages of Simulation:

Integrated simulation activity: (An emerging area) simulation program operates together with the system of interest.

Two main purposes: to support or to enrich real system operation

Support of real system operation: the system of interest and the simulation program operate alternately to provide predictive displays.

Enrichment of real system operation, the system of interest and the simulation program operate simultaneously.

Goals: - on-line diagnosis

- augmented reality (enhanced reality) operation.

1. Terminology

2. Types of usages

4. Professionalism

Some promising advancement areas for modelling and simulation in:

1. Science, methodology, and technology of M&S

2. Trustworthiness, reliability, and quality in M&S

3. Application areas

4. Consolidation and dissemination of M&S knowledge

5. M&S professionalism

1. Science, methodology, & technology of M&S

Event-based modelling (DEVS) & its synergies with other modelling formalisms Multimodels or multiaspect models (to

encapsulate a set of closely related modules of a model)

- Normally only one model module can be active at a given time.

- During simulation, transition conditions can be monitored for switching from a module to another one.

A type of multimodel: metamorphic model - (e.g., egg, larva, pupa, butterfly)

There is a predefined sequence for the alternate models.

Another type of multimodel: multiaspect model - (e.g., ice, water, vapor)Another type of multimodel: multiaspect model - (e.g., ice, water, vapor)

More than one alternate model can exist at the same time

with possible flows of entities (e.g., mass) between submodels

Multimodel Formalism: Background Multimodel Formalism: Background

• A multimodel is a modular model that subsumes multiple submodels that together represent the behavior of the model.

• Original formulation of multimodeling concept (Ören 1991) inspired the development of

– combined simulation (Praehofer 1992) - integration of continuous and discrete simulations within the same system description.

– multimodel formalism for analyzing the qualitative dynamics of systems (Fishwick and Zeigler 1992).

• In existing formalisms submodels

– share the same address space, and they are updated based on programmatic switch statements; hence, they are not only inflexible (i.e., hardwired), but also lack applicability to truly distinct arbitrary models.

Taxonomy of Multimodels (Submodel Structure)

Taxonomy of Multimodels (Submodel Activation Behavior)Taxonomy of Multimodels (Submodel Activation Behavior)

A recent reference on a taxonomy of multimodels:

Yilmaz, L. and Ören, T.I. (2004). Dynamic Model Updating in Simulation with Multimodels: A Taxonomy and a Generic Agent-Based Architecture, Proceedings of SCSC 2004,Summer Computer Simulation Conference, July 25-29, 2004, San Jose, CA., pp. 3-8.

Variable structure models: (trajectory simulation & structural simulation)

to study the evolution of the structure of a system, e.g., crystal growth, growth of plants expressed as L-systems, cellular automata, variable-boundary system simulation, etc.- In adaptive system simulation, the system may need to change its structure (adopt itself) to satisfy its goal of existence. - Evolutionary system studies require mutations of the simulation models.

Multisimulation: to experiment with several aspects of reality

simultaneously. Under emerging conditions, one can add

emerging successor models to existing models to explore behavior of alternative system models.

Automation of design of experiments: Simulation environments can be enhanced by

having experimental design abilities. Then a shell can apply the experimental

design to activate the simulation with appropriate values of decision parameters and to observe the outcomes.

Later an analysis module can perform the statistical analysis to advise the user.

Holonic agent simulation:

A holonic system is composed of autonomous entities (called holons) that can deliberately reduce their autonomy, when need arise, to collectively achieve a goal.

A holonic agent is a multi-agent system where each agent (called a holon) acts with deliberately reduced autonomy to assure harmony in its cooperation, in order to collectively achieve a common goal.

Holonic agent simulation can be the basis for application areas involving cooperation, conflict management, and peace support operations.

Specification languages and environments for interoperability:

Interoperability is a very important and desirable feature to integrate several simulation studies –each called a federate– into a federation.

Maintaining specifications instead of the code would be much more cost effective; furthermore, it can also allow, symbolic processing of the specifications of models, experiments, and parameters to have computer-aided validation and verification.

2. Trustworthiness, reliability, & quality in M&S

Built-in reliability prior to validation and verification:

Ways to achieve reliability during the specification phase of modelling and simulation would be very beneficial.

Validation and verification based on specification of simulation studies can be more effective than validation and verification based on simulation programs.

Proper documentation of simulation studies:

Proper documentation of modelling and simulation studies, including clarification of several assumptions, may be helpful in validation and verification as well as for their proper use and reuse.

Reuse libraries: Establishment of reuse libraries can be beneficial for

organizations which use large number of simulations. They can benefit:

(1) by cutting cost, (2) by saving time (by not reimplementing modules

which already exist and by performing validation/verification studies only once), and

(3) by easing upgrading process (upgrade of a reused module can be shared with all installations using the same software module).

Taming and monitoring software agents: One of the characteristics of agents is autonomy.

However, full autonomy of agents may not assure their trustworthiness.

There are two challenges: First, built-in trustworthiness which requires the

limitation of the autonomy of agents while building them.

Second, defensive trustworthiness which requires, in an agent-based computation environment, monitoring and even licensing of agents.

Human behavior and societal systems:

Understanding human behavior is essential for several studies.

There are already several human behavior and societal system simulation studies.

However, many more are warranted.

Enhancement of decision making abilities for cooperation:

Competition: zero-sum games

Cooperation: non-zero sum games

Coopetition (mixture of competition and cooperation)

Simulation can be useful in teaching the value and practice of cooperation.

Enhancement of decision making abilities for conflict management:

Conflict management, including conflict avoidance and conflict resolution is an important ability.

It might be beneficial to increase use of simulation to enhance the decision making abilities for conflict management.

Enhancement of decision making abilities for peace support / peace assurance:

There is a plethora of war gaming simulations.

In addition to them, it would be highly desirable to have peace support / peace assurance simulations to be used for the enhancement of the relevant decision making abilities of the concerned.

Training systems with learning abilities:

It might be interesting to explore use of exploratory simulation in machine learning, to allow the agents to learn in a richer learning environment.

4. Consolidation & dissemination of M&S knowledge

Systematization of the body of knowledge: The need is already been expressed.A unified view will be useful

Dictionary of terms

An authoritative dictionary of modelling and simulation would be very desirable to provide crisp definitions.

Otherwise the following type of definitions may be used: “Simulation: An experiment that models a real-life situation.”

Electronic textbook:

Examples:The Electronic Statistics Textbook

The Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy

On-line mathematics textbooks

e-text(s) can display more knowledge then originally stored in them by exploring knowledge generation features of simulation models.

Dissemination of knowledge:

Electronic newsletters of SCS and SCS Europe fulfill very useful functions. Conferences page of EUROSIM is a rich list of conferences.

However, another electronic dissemination mechanism used for software engineering (SEWORLD) can be a model for dissemination of modelling and simulation events.

Graduate curriculum development:

An ACM style graduate curriculum in M&S would be very useful, for individual educational institutions as well as for their cooperation (student exchange and credit transfers can be much simpler).

Several academic institutions and centers of the McLeod Institute for Simulation Sciences (MISS) can use such a curriculum.

- Problem specification environments for simulation- Computer-aided VV&A (and built-in consistency and

acceptability checks during modelling)- Computer aided program generation (generative programming)- Interoperability- Re-usability (at specification level)- Artificial Intelligence applications: Knowledge-based

simulation, Rule-based systems, qualitative simulation, ... Soft computation and simulation

- Agent-directed simulation (agent simulation, agent-based simulation, agent-supported simulation)

Other points:

1. Terminology

2. Types of usages

4. Professionalism

http://www.site.uottawa.ca/~oren/links-MS.htm

Associations: - International (16)Associations – by Country: (23)Associations – by Region / Language (10)Organizations / Groups

Application Area(s)

Code of Professional Ethics

Tec hn o lo gy

3 Aspects of Professionalism in M&S:

M&S BoK

(body of knowledge)

Certification of Professionalism

Professional and Ethical Conduct

) Wealth G

eneration (P

roducts/Services):

(Industry)

Knowledge: To solve problems:- M&S BoK- Science - Technology- Application Area(s)How to solve them (behavior):- Code of Professional Ethics

Activities: - Knowledge Generation and Dissemination: (Academia, R&D)- Wealth Generation (Products/Services): (Industry)

Monitoring: - Professional and Ethical Conduct - Certification of Professıonalism

1. Terminology

2. Types of usages

4. Professionalism

Responsible:

Ability to fulfil one’s moral obligations;

it is an ideal of character, a virtue.

Only maturity may imply responsibility.

Accountable:

Being required to answer for one’s actions.

Position Statement:

• The growing importance and the scope of application areas of modelling and simulation oblige us to re-examine our field and reflect upon whether or not those who are involved in any aspect of it have any responsibility.

“The unexamined life is not worth living.” Socrates (469-399 BC)

And “life” may well cover professional societies and professions as well.

1. Terminology

2. Types of usages

4. Professionalism

Ethic is a set of principles of right conduct.

Ethics refers to the general nature of morals and the specific moral choices to be made by a person.

Professional ethics, i.e., the rules or standards governing the conduct of a person or the members of a profession. The terms medical ethics and business ethics are used similarly.

Ethics in simulation should be raised to a visible status.

(Or justifications should be given why while so many

other professions are subscribing to codes of ethics,

ethics is not mentioned in simulation studies.)

Ethics and simulation – A personal normative view:

If our activities have no (serious) implications to others, then

it does not matter whether or not we should feel responsible towards them or we should be held accountable.

If simulation has no (serious) implications to others, then

it does not matter whether or not simulationists should feel responsible towards them or should be held accountable.

“What you don’t want done to yourself, don’t do to others.” Confucius (551-479) BC)

The respect for the rights of others:

is the essence of right conduct. It is also a fundamental concept in civilized

societies, essential for the regulation of the social dynamics in order to sustain the civilization.

Also, from a pragmatic view:

No business, how lucrative it is, can be sustained if one looses the trust of the stakeholders.

The origins for the respect for the rights of others:

Respect for the rights of others

Self-initiated(genuine)

Imposed(emulated)

behavior

responsibility accountability

Origin:

-personal belief

-philosophical (e.g., Zen: altruism)

Origin: - state legislation - society customs, peer pressures, regulations, codes of conduct, ethical codes of conduct

Self-imposedrestriction

Origin:-religion

A site:http://www.site.uottawa.ca/~oren/SCS_Ethics/ethics.htm

And the associations which adopted Code of Professional Ethics for Simulationists

Simulation has thousands of applications; and, simulation studies/products can affect people as well as the environment in many ways.

Or, what we do can have important consequences! As mature members of a mature profession, we can act proactively to assuming our responsability and accountability.

Responsibilities of simulationists to:

simulationist

othersprofession

1. Personal development and the profession (7) 2. Professional competence (8)3. Trustworthiness (4)4. Property rights and due credit (4)5. Compliance with the code (4) ____

5 Areas of the Code:

simulationist

othersprofession

1. Personal development and the profession:

As a simulationist I will:

1.1 Acquire and maintain professional competence and attitude.

1.2 Treat fairly employees, clients, users, colleagues, and employers.

1.3 Encourage and support new entrants to the profession.

1. Personal development and the profession:

1.4 Support fellow practitioners and members of other professions who are engaged in modelling and simulation.

1.5 Assists colleagues to achieve reliable results.1.6 Promote the reliable and credible use of modelling and

simulation.1.7 Promote the modelling and simulation profession; e.g.,

advance public knowledge and appreciation of modelling and simulation and clarify and counter false or misleading statements.

2. Professional competence:

2.1 Assure product and/or service quality by the use of proper methodologies and technologies.

2.2 Seek, utilize, and provide critical professional review.

2.3 Recommend and stipulate proper and achievable goals for any project.

2.4 Document simulation studies and/or systems comprehensibly and accurately to authorized parties.

2. Professional competence:

As a simulationist I will: 2.5 Provide full disclosure of system design assumptions and

known limitations and problems to authorized parties.2.6 Be explicit and unequivocal about the conditions of

applicability of specific models and associated simulation results.

2.7 Caution against acceptance of modelling and simulation results when there is insufficient evidence of thorough validation and verification.

2.8 Assure thorough and unbiased interpretations and evaluations of the results of modelling and simulation studies.

3. Trustworthiness:

3.1 Be honest about any circumstances that might lead to conflict of interest.

3.2 Honor contracts, agreements, and assigned responsibilities and accountabilities.

3.3 Help develop an organizational environment that is supportive of ethical behavior.

3.4 Support studies which will not harm humans (current and

future generations) as well as environment.

4. Property rights and due credit:

4.1 Give full acknowledgement to the contributions of others.

4.2 Give proper credit for intellectual property.

4.3 Honor property rights including copyrights and patents.

4.4 Honor privacy rights of individuals and organizations as well as confidentiality of the relevant data and knowledge.

5. Compliance with the code:

5.1 Adhere to this code and encourage other simulationists to adhere to it.

5.2 Treat violations of this code as inconsistent with being a simulationist.

5.3 Seek advice from professional colleagues when faced with an ethical dilemma in modelling and simulation activities.

5.4 Advise any professional society which supports this code of desirable updates.

1. Terminology

2. Types of usages

4. Professionalism

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