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Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET)
World Food Program (WFP)
U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)
Pre-Harvest Assessment Findings
May 15, 2013, USAID Mission to Afghanistan
Kabul, Afghanistan
1
Rainfed wheat, Khawja Ghar District, Takhar
Province, Northeastern, April 21, 2013
Source: FEWS NET Afghanistan
2
Outline
Seasonal context
Area coverage of joint assessment
Regional crop performance, economic variables, and
shocks
Remote sensing data—strengths and weaknesses this
season
Food security implications
Key messages
3
Seasonal Context
Source: FEWS NET
4
Samangan Province, RFE2 cumulative rainfall in millimeters (mm)
Precipitation started in November, picked up in late
January, catching up to near average
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)/FEWS NET
5
Faryab Province, RFE2 rainfall in mm per 10 day period (dekad)
Despite total rainfall being less than ideal, very
steady rainfall since February
Source: USGS/FEWS NET
6
2013 Pre-Harvest Assessment: Covered Areas
Source: World Food Program I(WFP)
7
Eastern: Laghman, Nangarhar, and Kunar Provinces
Source: WFP
8
Eastern: Cropping conditions
Area planted:
Irrigated winter wheat
Above average
Area planted:
Rainfed spring wheat
Normal
Area planted:
Other spring crops
Normal
Condition:
Irrigated winter wheat
Better than 2012
Condition:
Rainfed spring wheat
Better than 2012
Condition:
Other spring crops
Vegetables better than 2012
9
Eastern: Economic conditions
Labor wages Above 2012
Labor opportunities Above 2012
Livestock prices Above 2012
Livestock conditions Better than 2012
Food aid Similar to 2012
~11,000 MT of food in-kind
Other food security and
agricultural assistance
MAIL offering cash for work (CFW)
for 4,000 people in Kunar
10
Eastern: Shocks and groups to monitor
Observed shocks Wheat stem rust
Some flooding
Potential Shocks Strong winds
Acutely food insecure groups 6,000 households (HH) returnees
1,650 HH flood-affected
150 HH earthquake-affected
Overall, agricultural and livestock production conditions are
seasonally normal. Seasonal improvements are expected
over the next several months, and the wheat harvest is
likely to be above average.
11
Irrigated wheat, Kunar Valley, Kunar Province, Eastern,
April 16
Source: FEWS NET Afghanistan
12
Irrigated wheat, Kama District, Nangarhar Province,
Eastern, April 17
Source: FEWS NET Afghanistan
13
Central-Eastern: Parwan, Kapisa, and Panjsher
Provinces
Source: WFP
14
Central-Eastern: Cropping conditions
Area planted:
Irrigated winter wheat
Same as 2012
Area planted:
Rainfed spring wheat
Same as 2012
Area planted:
Other spring crops
Same as 2012
Condition:
Irrigated winter wheat
Better than 2012
Condition:
Rainfed spring wheat
Better than 2012
Condition:
Other spring crops
Same as 2012
15
Central-Eastern: Economic conditions
Labor wages Above 2012
Labor opportunities Above 2012
Livestock prices Above 2012
Livestock conditions Better than 2012
Food aid Same as 2012
Other food security and
agricultural assistance
Same as 2012
16
Central-Eastern: Shocks and groups to monitor
Observed shocks None
Potential Shocks None currently anticipated
Acutely food insecure groups IDPs in Nawabad village ~500 HH
Overall, agricultural and livestock production conditions are
above normal. Additional seasonal improvements are
expected over the next several months, and the wheat
harvest is likely to be above average.
17
Irrigated wheat, Sayed Khil, Parwan Province, Central-
Eastern, May 4
Source: FEWS NET Afghanistan
18
Wheat, Panjshir Province, Central-Eastern, May 2
Source: FEWS NET Afghanistan
19
Northeastern: Baghlan, Kundoz, Takhar, and
Badakhshan Provinces
Source: WFP
20
Northeastern: Cropping conditions
Area planted:
Irrigated winter wheat
More than 2012
Area planted:
Rainfed spring wheat
Much higher than 2012
Area planted:
Other spring crops
Same as 2012
Condition:
Irrigated winter wheat
Better than 2012
Condition:
Rainfed spring wheat
Better than 2012
Condition:
Other spring crops
Better than 2012
21
Northeastern: Economic conditions
Labor wages Above 2012
Labor opportunities Above 2012
Livestock prices Above 2012
Livestock conditions Better than 2012
Food aid Same as 2012
Other food security and
agricultural assistance
Same as 2012, concentrated
livestock feed distribution,
improved wheat seed distribution
by FAO
22
Northeastern: Shocks and groups to monitor
Observed shocks Worms, though have been
reduced by cooler
temperatures
Snow in Wakhan Corridor has
cut off the road
Potential Shocks Poor or no rain in early May would
likely reduce rainfed wheat yields
Acutely food insecure groups IDPs
Overall, agricultural and livestock production conditions are
much better than last year. Additional seasonal
improvements in food security are expected over the next
several months if there are no additional shocks.
23
Rainfed wheat, Takhar Province, Northeastern, April 21
Source: FEWS NET Afghanistan
24
Irrigated wheat, Taloqan, Takhar Province, Northeastern,
April 21
Source: FEWS NET Afghanistan
25
Northwestern: Samangan, Balkh, Jawzjan, Saripul,
and Faryab Provinces
26
Northwestern: Cropping conditions
Area planted:
Irrigated winter wheat
Near average
Area planted:
Rainfed spring wheat
Above last year
Area planted:
Other spring crops
Above last year
Condition:
Irrigated winter wheat
Better than 2012
Condition:
Rainfed spring wheat
Generally, better than 2012
Eastern Jawzjan and Saripul doing
slightly less well than last year
Condition:
Other spring crops
Frost damage to almond trees in
Samangan Province
27
Northwestern: Economic conditions
Labor wages Similar to 2012
Labor opportunities Slightly less than 2012
Livestock prices Above 2012
Livestock conditions Better than 2012
Food aid Less than 2012 due to reduction in
EMOP
Other food security and
agricultural assistance
Jawzjan NSP increased
SC nutrition program ended
28
Northwestern: Shocks and groups to monitor
Observed shocks Frost on almond trees, though
still likely to produce some
income
Some flooding
Potential Shocks No additional rain in May would
reduce yields
Acutely food insecure groups IDPs
flood-affected HHs
HHs affected by erosion of Amu
River
Overall, agricultural and livestock production conditions are
much better than last year. Additional seasonal
improvements are expected over the next several months,
and the wheat harvest is likely to be well above average.
29
Irrigated wheat, Balkh District, Balkh Province ,
Northwestern, April 28
Source: FEWS NET Afghanistan
30
Rainfed wheat, Suzma Qala, Saripul Province ,
Northwestern, April 27
Source: FEWS NET Afghanistan
31
Central-Highlands: Bamyan, Ghor, and
Daikundi Provinces
Source: WFP
32
Central-Highlands: Cropping conditions
Area planted:
Irrigated winter wheat
Same as 2012 for Bamyan and less as
2012 for Ghor and Daikundi
Area planted:
Rainfed spring wheat
Same as 2012 for Bamyan and Daikundi
and less in Ghor
Area planted:
Other spring crops
Same as 2012
Condition:
Irrigated winter wheat
Better than 2012 for Bamyan,
very early in other areas
Condition:
Rainfed spring wheat
Better than 2012 for Bamyan,
very early in other areas
33
Central-Highlands: Economic conditions
Labor wages Above 2012 in Bamyan, slightly less/the
same Ghor and Daikondi
Labor opportunities Above 2012 in Bamyan,
same/less in Daikundi and Ghor
Livestock prices Above 2012 in Bamyan,
same/less Daikundi and Ghor
Livestock conditions Better than 2012 in Bamyan,
poor in Ghor and Daikundi
Food aid Same as 2012
Other food security and
agricultural assistance
Improved wheat seed in Ghor and Bamayn
for spring 2013 by FAO
34
Central-Highlands: Shocks and groups to monitor
Observed shocks Some flooding, less snowpack
than usual, lack of work
opportunities, cold weather
and winter losses of wheat
crop
Potential Shocks Additional flooding, plant diseases,
wheat rust, unusual cold weather
Acutely food insecure groups Close monitoring is required for
crops in Ghor, Panjab, Yakawlang,
Waras, and Saighan Districts in
Bamyan, and Khidir, Sangtakht,
Ashterlay, and Miramor Districts in
Daikundi
35
Central-Highland: Summary
Seasonal improvements are expected with the harvest in
September, and the wheat harvest looks likely to be
average if seasonally normal conditions continue.
Both Ghor and Daikundi require close monitoring as the
crops are in an earlier stage of development and a number
of potential shocks are possible between now and
September.
36
Wheat, Taiwara District, Ghor Province,
Central Highlands, April 21, 2013
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
37
Western: Hirat, Badghis, Farah, and
Nimroz Provinces
Source: WFP
38
Western: Cropping conditions
Area planted:
Irrigated winter wheat
Above 2012
Area planted:
Rain-fed wheat
Slightly above 2012
Area planted:
Other spring crops
Normal
Condition:
Irrigated winter wheat
Better than 2012
Condition:
Rain-fed wheat
Better than 2012
Condition:
Other spring crops
Better than 2012
39
Western: Economic conditions
Labor wages Slightly above 2012
Labor opportunities The same as 2012
Livestock prices Lower than 2012
Livestock conditions Better than 2012
Food aid Less than 2012
8,237 MT of food in-kind
Other food security and
agricultural assistance
MAIL distributed 3,500 MT
improved wheat seed,
Saffron and soybean seed also
distributed,
WVI expanded in Badghis
40
Western: Shocks and groups to monitor
Observed shocks Localized flooding
Some frost
Potential Shocks Additional flooding
Plant diseases (Rust, smut)
Locusts and other pests
High winds during the harvest in
Nimroz
Acutely food insecure groups 10,889 Natural disaster-affected
HHs,
25,500 IDP HHs and Returnees
•With continued seasonally normal conditions, food security
will likely seasonally improve with the harvest unless there are
further shocks. A high number of IDPs require close monitoring.
41
South-Western: Kandahar, Helmand, Uruzgan, and
Zabul Provinces
Source: WFP
42
South-Western: Cropping conditions
Area planted:
Irrigated winter wheat
Above 2012
Area planted:
Rainfed spring wheat
Above 2012
Area planted:
Other spring crops
Better than 2012
Condition:
Irrigated winter wheat
Better than 2012
Condition:
Rainfed spring wheat
Better than 2012
Condition:
Other spring crops
Better 2012
43
South-Western: Economic conditions
Labor wages Slightly Above 2012
Labor opportunities Slightly Above 2012
Livestock prices Above 2012
Livestock conditions Better than 2012
Food aid Same as 2012
Other food security and
agricultural assistance
Same as 2012
44
South-Western: Shocks and groups to monitor
Observed shocks None
Potential Shocks Flood & Wind
Acute Food insecure groups 8,601 flood and other natural
disaster affected HH
26,100 IDP HHs & Returnees
•With continued seasonally normal conditions, food security
will likely seasonally improve with the harvest unless there are
further shocks. The high number of IDPs both from conflict and
natural disasters require close monitoring.
45
South-Eastern: Paktya, Paktika, and Khost Provinces
Source: WFP
46
South-Eastern: Cropping conditions
Area planted:
Irrigated winter wheat
Above 2012
Area planted:
Rainfed spring wheat
Higher than 2012
Area planted:
Other spring crops
Better than 2012
Condition:
Irrigated winter wheat
Normal
Condition:
Rainfed spring wheat
Normal
Condition:
Other spring crops
Better than 2012
47
South-Eastern: Economic conditions
Labor wages Above 2012
Labor opportunities Above 2012
Livestock prices Above 2012
Livestock conditions Better than 2012
Food aid Same as 2012
Other food security and
agricultural assistance
Same as 2012
48
South-Eastern: Shocks and groups to monitor
Observed shocks Wheat rust in Khost Province
Potential Shocks Hail storms
High winds during the harvest
wheat rust
Acutely food insecure groups 2,061 IDP HHs
and Returnees
•With continued seasonally normal conditions, food security
will likely seasonally improve with the harvest unless there are
further shocks.
49
South-Central: Kabul, Logar, Wardak, and
Ghazni Provinces
Source: WFP
50
South-Central: Cropping conditions
Area planted:
Irrigated winter wheat
Slightly above 2012
Area planted:
Rainfed spring wheat
Slightly above 2012
Area planted:
Other spring crops
Above last year
Condition:
Irrigated winter wheat
Normal
Condition:
Rain-fed wheat
Normal in all provinces,
Except poorer in Ghazni
Condition:
Other spring crops
Better than 2012
51
South-Central: Economic conditions
Labor wages Similar to 2012
Labor opportunities Slightly less than 2012
Livestock prices Above 2012
Livestock conditions Better than 2012
Food aid Same as 2012
Other food security and
agricultural assistance
Same as 2012
52
South-Central: Shocks and groups to monitor
Observed shocks No significant shock
Potential Shocks Wheat rust infestation
Acutely food insecure groups 2,003 Earthquake and natural
disaster affected HHs
8,580 IDP HHs and returnees
•With continued seasonally normal conditions, food security
will likely seasonally improve with the harvest unless there are
further shocks.
53
eMODIS NDVI anomaly, April 26 – May 5, 2013
NDVI generally was reflecting crop conditions
Source: USGS/FEWS NET
54
October 1, 2012-April 30, 2013 accumulated precipitation
Total wet season precipitation was a less relevant
indicator due to uneven temporal distribution
Source: USGS/FEWS NET
55
Food Security Implications
Wheat availability both at household and market levels will
likely increase more than usual with the May to September
harvest.
Economic access to food has already seasonally increased, and
it is likely to be further bolstered by increasing income
associated with a well above average wheat harvest.
Well above average national wheat production will reduce the
demand for wheat and wheat flour imports, which will help
reduce the impact of international markets on domestic staple
food prices.
56
Key Messages
For the second year in a row, total, national, grain production in Afghanistan is likely to be well above average. The harvest from May to September should increase the availability of wheat, the primary staple food, at both household and market levels.
The well above average harvest will likely increase access to food from markets above seasonally typical levels from now to September by increasing labor wages, providing more labor opportunities than usual, and helping maintain above average livestock prices.
Too much or not enough rain in the rest of May, additional flooding, and the spread of plant diseases or pests could increase acute food insecurity between now and September.
57
For More Information
www.wfp.org
www.fao.org
www.fews.net/Afghanistan
Karim Najimi
afghanistan@fews.net
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