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June 9th 2011
Some comments about the analytical approachPasquale Cirillo pasquale.cirillo@stat.unibe.ch
PPPs
27%
16%37%
5%13%
3%
EAP ECALAC MNASAR SSA
PPP
inve
stm
ents
in
rene
wab
le-b
ased
ene
rgy
Points of strength
✤ Interesting data set.
✤ Useful descriptive analysis.
✤ Correct choice of methodologies.
✤ In particular, the probit model is a nice tool to study the impact of different facts (and variables) on the probability of a given event to manifest itself (here PPP).
✤ Fundamental support for more qualitative studies, to which this analysis provides strong additional evidence.
Weaknesses
✤ No particular weakness at this stage.
✤ For the final version of the report, some additional test on the GLM parameters could be performed.
Possible Extensions
✤ Hierarchical modeling.
✤ Cointegration to study investments co-movements (?).
June 9th 2011
Some comments about the analytical approachPasquale Cirillo pasquale.cirillo@stat.unibe.ch
0
22,5
45
67,5
90
Residential AccessEnergy sold p.e.
TariffEmission Index
Vertical Unbundling Vertical Integration
Market Structure
Points of strength
✤ Interesting panel data set, correct data treatment.
✤ Clear choice of variables & correct specification of the alternative models (FE vs RE).
✤ Statistically sound results to develop policy recommendations.
✤ Identification of non-trivial relations among the variables.
✤ Analysis of common features and average patterns.
✤ Quantitative indicators.
Weaknesses
✤ This type of analysis gives strong evidence on averages, but it may neglect idiosyncratic shocks and country specific qualitative components (history, political peculiarities, etc.).
✤ Integration with other tools such as Case Studies is needed to have a “vue d’ensemble”.
Possible Extensions
✤ Additional tests for comparing groups.
✤ Hierarchical modeling.
✤ Cluster analysis to look for hidden affinities.
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