politics and the electoral system

Politics and the Electoral System

The Story of an Election Labour Party leader Tony Blair

transfers party leadership to Gordon Brown at a Labour Party conference in July 2007.

Brown becomes Prime Minister (PM) without having stood for new election as the leader of his party. This is normal. Party leaders are selected within the

political party itself. A party leader becomes PM because his

party is the majority party in parliament. Labour has the majority in Parliament in

2007, and Gordon Brown becomes PM. Brown’s prime-minister-ship is

formalized by the Queen

The Story of an Election

On April 6, 2010, Brown calls a new parliamentary election for May 6, 2010

The campaign lasts only one month.

The Story of an Election All Members of Parliament (MPs)

stand for election only in their own constituencies (districts). David Cameron (leader of the

Conservative Party) stands for election only in Whitney in Oxfordshire

Gordon Brown (leader of the Labour Party) stands for election only in Kirkcaldy-Caldenbeath in Fife.

Big-name politicians—like Cameron and Brown—also campaign in colleagues’ constituencies to boost their parties’ fortunes.

Whichever party can form a majority in parliament will put forward the next prime minister. Gordon Brown in Kirkcaldy

David Cameron in Whitney

5

Effect of Electoral Institutions

How does the electoral system work? Single-member-district electoral system First-past-the-post

(also called “winner-take-all”)

6

Effect of Electoral Institutions

Hypothetical 34% Labour33% Conservative33% Liberal-Democrat

Single-member/First-past-the-post Labour wins all parliamentary seats Parties w/ combined backing of 2/3’s of electorate win no seats at all

Multi-member/Proporational Representation Would be a three-party system w/ roughly equal representation

Disproportionality in the British Electoral System, 2010 Election

29

36.1

23

11.9

39.7

47.1

8.84.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

Labour Conservative Liberal-Democratic Other

%

Votes

Seats

8

35

55

3231

22

10 10

5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

%

Labour Conservative Liberal Democratic Other

Disproportionality in the British Electoral System, 2005 Election

Votes

Seats

9

41

63

32

25

18

8 9

4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

%

Labour Conservative Liberal Democratic Other

Disproportionality in the British Electoral System, 2001 Election

Votes

Seats

British Popular Vote by Party, 1945-2010

Look at declines in Labour (red line) popularity. Why?

12

Labour Party increasingly out of touch in 1970s & 1980s

Shift from manufacturing to services Fewer “blue collar” jobs Fewer union members

identify with “Old Labour” Less union membership

among “white collar” workers lower

Hurt “Old Labour”

13

Effect of Electoral Institutions on Political Outcomes If Labour was so out-of-touch for 2 decades, why

wasn’t it replaced by a third party? Not for lack of trying by 3rd Parties

Social Democratic Party (1981) Liberal Democrats (since 1988)

But remember “disproportionality” And Labour finally adapts to “post-industrial”

society

14

Tony Blair “reinvents” Labour Party

Look at Labour’s (red line) comeback

Look at Labour’s (red line) comeback until 2010

The Story of an Election Labour loses

29% of vote down from 35%

Gordon Brown un-popular Conservatives gain

36% up from 32% But lack a majority of seats

(47%) Liberal-Democrats about

same (22-23%) Join Conservatives in

coalition government!

Disproportionality in the British Electoral System, 2010 Election

29

36.1

23

11.9

39.7

47.1

8.84.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

Labour Conservative Liberal-Democratic Other

%

Votes

Seats

2010 Election: Conservative Party improves, but fails to win out-right majority—very unusual outcome

Why would Lib-Dems want PR?

Liberal Democrats pushed for 2011 Referendum on Electoral Reform Compromise

Not proportional representation (PR)

Alternate Vote (AV) also known as “instant run-off” voting

Lib-Dems get referendum on AV not PR! Mr Clegg said: "AV is a baby step in the

right direction – only because nothing can be worse than the status quo.

“If we want to change British politics once and for all, we have got to have a quite simple system in which everyone's votes count.”

Simulated outcome of proposed “AV” voting based on 2010 survey data