photo: r. hancock sea levels affecting marshes model using slamm to conserve rhode island coastal...

Photo: R. Hancock

Sea Levels Affecting Marshes ModelUsing SLAMM to Conserve

Rhode Island Coastal Wetlands

Coastal Resources Management CouncilCoastal Education Series

May 27, 2014

James Boyd, CRMC Coastal Policy Analyst

Rhode Island has lost 53% of its historic salt marshes over the last two centuries* due to man-made alterations (ditching and filling) resulting in a loss of about 4000 acres statewide

* Bromberg and Bertness, 2005

2010

2004

STB’s 10 years of restoration monitoring has shown that conditions can change rapidly in tidally restricted marshes

Recently, similar degraded conditions have been observed in marshes with no tidal restrictions

2010Source: Save The Bay

Marsh Migration

Source: W. Ferguson, Save The Bay

Marsh Migration

Source: J. Boyd 05/15/14

HEIGHT NOW

Adapted from: http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/

sltrends_station.shtml?stnid=8452660%20Newport,%20RIBoothroyd 2013

Rate of Rise 1930-201310.8 +/- .7 inch/100 yr

USACE and NOAA SLR Curves

http://corpsclimate.us/ccaceslcurves.cfm

Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM)North Kingstown Pilot Project (2011)

http://seagrant.gso.uri.edu/climate/habitat.html

All 21 Coastal Communities Completed

Region 1

Region 2

Region 3

SLAMM Project Goals1. Develop marsh migration modeling results (maps)

2. Identify existing vulnerable wetlands

3. Identify impacted upland parcels – opportunities and challenges

4. Develop new CRMC coastal program adaptive strategies, policies and standards (Beach SAMP)

5. Increase local capacity to proactively incorporate sea level rise for wetlands (e.g., comprehensive plans, zoning codes, conservation, etc.)

Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM)

Simulates the dominant processes involved in wetland conversions during long term

sea level rise

Applied and improved since 1985

Used throughout the world

http://www.warrenpinnacle.com/prof/SLAMM/

Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model

Topography is the basis for Model

Modeling – Current Conditions

Model Results – 1’ SLR

Model Results – 3’ SLR

Model Results – 5’ SLR

Model Results – 5’ SLR

SLAMM Predicted Statewide Salt Marsh Changes due to Sea Level Rise

SLR 1 Ft. 3 Ft. 5 Ft.

Loss (Acres) 450 1895 3189

Gain (Acres) 1057 1148 2151

Net Change (Acres)

607 -747 -1038

½ of Current Salt Marshes

http://seagrant.gso.uri.edu/climate/habitat.html www.beachsamp.org

SLAMM Project is part of the Beach SAMP