pfaa cmai glomo-may09
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Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009
Singapore Shanghai Houston New York London Dsseldorf Dubai
Petrochemical FeedstockPetrochemical FeedstockAssociation of the AmericasAssociation of the Americas
Houston !"Houston !"#a$ %& %''(#a$ %& %''(
Global Light Olefins Market Outlook
Impact Of A Global Recession
Chuck CarrDirector , Propylene StudiesCMAI !ouston, "#ccarr$c%aiglobal&co%
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Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009
Petroche%ical SupplyChain Dyna%ics
Petroche%icals'nergy Deri(ati(es
Con(ertersConsu%ers)etail
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Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009
Global Light Olefins Market Outlook
Current MarketConditions
I%pact of 'cono%ic *
'nergy +actorsalancing -e. Capacity
* Slo.ing De%andGro.th
Cycle"rough Conditions/nder.ay
0uestions * Ans.ers
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Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009
)urrent State of the *ndustr$
#arket
Fundamental Status +hat it is !elling ,s
De%and Slow reco-er$ from ./'0 Cautious consu%ers
Supply Aggressi-e 1ate )uts Li%ited Market /pside
Capacity Ample and 23panding Cyclic Do.nturn /nder.ay
#arkets ha-e entered a structurall$ long period withmuted demand growth more capacit$ still to come4
Cash Costs #o-ing with energ$ Short ter% %argin gains
Sector Prices Protecting min margins )esponding to slo. de%and
Chain Margins #ost at 5are #inimums !igh Cost eing Pushed Out
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Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009
/&S& )etail Sales
12&2
3&2
4&2
5&2
6&2
2&2
6&2
5&2
4&2
3&2
12&2
16&2
15&2
14&2
31 37 38 39 3: :1 :7 :8 :9 :: 21 27 28 29 2:
Percent ;ear?>ear Change
)ec
ession)ecession )ecession
)ecession
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Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009
/&S& GDP (s& Manufacturing ProductionPercent ;
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/&S& 'thylene Supply?De%and Outlook
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8/36Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009
"rade data through Dec23
!urricane I%pact
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Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009
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Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009
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Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009
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Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009
Current Market Conditions
I%pact of 'cono%ic *'nergy +actors
alancing -e. Capacity* Slo.ing De%andGro.th
Cycle"rough Conditions
/nder.ayOther Olefins
0uestions * Ans.ers
Global Light Olefins Market Outlook
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Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009
!he 5ad News!he 5ad News+orse global recession since &(60 7 no one remembers+orse global recession since &(60 7 no one remembers
)onsumer ad-erse to spending8 o-erl$ indebted alread$)onsumer ad-erse to spending8 o-erl$ indebted alread$Auto *ndustr$ li-ing on in-entor$ 7 focused on sur-i-alAuto *ndustr$ li-ing on in-entor$ 7 focused on sur-i-al
*nflation likel$ to become a significant issue near term*nflation likel$ to become a significant issue near term
)redit still somewhat restricted8 high debt load might be fatal)redit still somewhat restricted8 high debt load might be fatalDe-eloped economies in decline 7 rest barel$ growing if at allDe-eloped economies in decline 7 rest barel$ growing if at all
#an$ Factors Are )urrentl$ )reating Se-ere9olatilit$ *n the :lobal #arkets
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Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009
!he :ood News!he :ood News#uch lower energ$ prices ;releases< beneficial spending=#uch lower energ$ prices ;releases< beneficial spending=
)onsumers see prices falling for food and other commodities)onsumers see prices falling for food and other commodities
,nemplo$ment benefits e3tended > foreclosures dela$ed,nemplo$ment benefits e3tended > foreclosures dela$ed)onstruction costs declining8 interests rates at historic low)onstruction costs declining8 interests rates at historic low
Ser-ices remain strong 7 especiall$ health care and ;legal
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Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009
'cono%ic Gro.th Co%parison;Constant 6229 /&S& Dollars=
5&2
6&2
2&2
6&2
5&2
4&2
3&2
:2 :6 :5 :4 :3 22 26 25 24 23 12 16 15
Percent Change
Eorld -& A%erica S& A%erica E& 'urope S' Asia -' Asia
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Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009
asic Che%icals * Plastics".o>ear )olling A(erage De%and Gro.th
Million Metric "ons
Current Log& "rend ;Current=
".o>ears 'nding in2
8
12
18
62
68
72
78
:1 :7 :8 :9 :: 21 27 28 29 2: 11 17 18
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Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009
Global 'thylene De%and Gro.th
Ma@or Setback In 6223Ma@or Setback In 6223
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Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009
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Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009
6223 Global 'thylene Cash Cost Cur(e
MD'
E'P
-'A
S'A
-AM
SAM
Dollars Per "on
82
682
582
482
382
1282
1682
1582
1482
1382
Cu%ulati(e 'thylene Capacity ;Million "ons=
2 62 52 42 32 122 162 152 142 132
/&S& Gulf Coast -atural Gas F 3&::?MM turent Crude Oil F :9&81?bl ;17&14?MM tu=
Alberta C'' per metric tonad-antage in %''0
Ad(antageB Middle 'astAd(antageB Middle 'ast
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Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009
6223 "otal Production69 Million Metric "ons
Propane
19ears In Global
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Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009
ision Of "he -et +i(e >ears In Global'thylene * Deri(ati(es Markets
Global de%and gro.th suffers foranother year or %ore
-ear ter%, ne. capacity slightlydelayed but i%pact on %arkets is
una(oidable-orth A%erica retains so%e Jeport
opportunitiesK but finished goodsi%ports .ill continue to accelerate
Consolidations and closures occurreco(ery signs appear by 6216N
otto%ofcycle profitability likely topersist for 67 years
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Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009Petrochemical Feedstock Association of the Americas - May 2009
HoustonHouston
LondonLondon
SingaporeSingapore
DubaiDubai
New YorkNew York
ShanghaiShanghai
DuesseldorfDuesseldorf
!HAN YE, )ontact an$ )#A* location to assist in $our
petrochemicals market anal$sis
Contact Infor%ation A(ailable at )#A*:LE5AL=)E#
C!'MICAL MA)'" ASSOCIA"'S, I-C&
/ S Propylene Supply?De%and Outlook
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P t h i l F d t k A i ti f th A i M 2009P t h i l F d t k A i ti f th A i M 2009
/&S& Propylene Supply?De%and Outlook
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