pearson etextbook reader
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PEARSON ETEXTBOOK READER
Ahmed TantawyBrian Guernsey
Josh LaumanPranav Dharwadkar
Tapan Kamdar
Hawk and Dove
Pearson & Market Background
Public K-12 Private K-12
Public University
Private University
Total
50
6
14
5
75
North American Educational Market
(Million Students ,2008)
• $6.4 Billion annual textbook industry
• 37% market share
Major Business Units
• $880.5 Million profit Education segment
• $605 Million profit N. America Edu.
Pearson’s strategic decision
Distribution
Content only
Reader +
Content
Segment
All content
Textbooks only
Hardware
Partner with
eReaders
Build through 3rd party
Physical vs. Digital Model
Author Editor Publisher Wholesaler
Educational
Institution
Physical Model
Author Editor Publisher
Educational
Institution
Digital Model
Author royalties = 7% on a book sale Rents captured by Publisher & Wholesaler
Partial book sale, subscription model Removes middle man (Wholesaler) Added value provided by publisher to educational institutes
$$ or Market Share - Protecting market share/ eroding profits in the emerging digital age
Class/yr
Books/Class Books
Cost/Book Annual Cost
Grade K-8 8 1 8 55 $440Grade 9-12 10 1 10 75 $750Undergraduate 8 2 16 55 $880Graduate 6 2 12 95 $1,140Average 10.4 60.8 $630
NPV (CF)Device Cost 37% 50% 75%
$99 1.59B 1.44B 1.17B$199 1.48B 1.34B 1.06B$299 1.34B 1.23B 0.95B
Market Share
2008 2011 2012 2013 2014UniversitiesPublic 13,972,000
Undergraduate 12,591,000 1.00% 2.50% 4.00%Graduate 1,381,000 1.00% 1.00%
Private 5,131,000 Undergraduate 3,775,000 1.00% 2.00% 4.00% 5.00%Graduate 1,356,000 1.00% 1.00%
Elementary / SecondaryPre-K - 8 39,179,000
Public 34,667,000 1.00% 2.00% 3.00%Private 4,512,000 1.00% 2.00%
Grade 9 - 12 16,321,000 Public 14,955,000 3.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00%Private 1,366,000 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00%
Mkt Size 527,380 1,200,920 2,197,205 3,128,370
Subscription per subject / year = $10 # of Books / year = 10.4- Free Device (one time) =
$299* Market Penetration- Cannibalization
*=
Recommendations
Partner to build eReader Interactive content for textbook market New subscription model for schools
V/S
APPENDIX
Porters Five Forces
Threat of Substitute
s•eContent
Providers:•Book
publishing houses
•Google online book
•Blogs/Wikipedia
•eBook Readers•Amazon
Kindle, Apple iPAD
•Computer•Texbooks
Threat of New Entrants• eContent Providers• Traditional content providers moving to
digital content• eBook Readers• Fujitsu, Sony, Google, Netbooks
Customers Bargaining Power • Schools/State Government: High. • Consumers: Moderate. In some ways
consumers are limited to what the school/state chooses. But consumers can potentially influence that choice through petitions, parent funding, etc
Suppliers Bargaining
Power•eContent
Providers: High•Volume of
content : Key differentiator amongst different ebook readers
•eBook Readers: Strong Bargaining power•Multi-
purpose devices have market penetration and network effects
Competitive
Rivalry
Modeling Parameters- Savings Schools $$ and penetrating additional segments
Overall School Savings
$10 54,529,537$ 178,701,123$ 405,885,640$ 729,349,873$ $15 81,794,305$ 268,051,685$ 608,828,461$ 1,094,024,809$ $20 109,059,073$ 357,402,246$ 811,771,281$ 1,458,699,745$
$55 22,193,521$ 50,537,836$ 92,464,099$ 131,649,943$ $60 24,211,114$ 55,132,184$ 100,869,926$ 143,618,119$ $75 30,263,893$ 68,915,230$ 126,087,407$ 179,522,649$
Digital $10 w/ Physical $60 30,318,422$ 123,568,939$ 305,015,715$ 585,731,754$ Current School costs 322,019,772$ 733,285,268$ 1,384,350,188$ 1,910,191,881$ School Savings 291,701,350$ 609,716,329$ 1,079,334,474$ 1,324,460,127$
Digital text book costs @ 37% Market Share
Cannibalization (Loss of Physical textbook revenue)
Financial Model- $10 digital replacing $60 textbook; retaining 37% market share
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Period 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Units Sold 0 527,380 1,200,920 2,197,205 3,128,370 3,159,654 3,191,250 3,223,163 3,255,394 3,287,948 3,320,828Unit Price $299 $293 $287 $281 $275 $269 $263 $257 $251 $245 $239Reader Revenue $0 -$3,153,732 -$14,363,003 -$39,417,858 -$74,830,610 -$94,473,646 -$114,502,059 -$134,921,592 -$155,738,067 -$176,957,378 -$198,585,502Content Revenue $30,318,422 $123,568,939 $305,015,715 $585,731,754 $591,589,071 $597,504,962 $603,480,011 $609,514,812 $615,609,960 $621,766,059Revenue $0 $27,164,690 $109,205,936 $265,597,857 $510,901,143 $497,115,425 $483,002,903 $468,558,419 $453,776,745 $438,652,582 $423,180,557R&D -$5,000,000 -$3,500,000 -$3,500,000 -$3,500,000 -$3,500,000 -$3,500,000 -$3,500,000 -$3,500,000 -$3,500,000 -$3,500,000 -$3,500,000E-Reader Unit Costs -157,686,620 -201,388,460 -297,889,215 -278,418,335 -9,353,826 -9,447,365 -9,541,838 -9,637,257 -9,733,629 -9,830,965 -9,929,275Labor/Distribution 0 -7,726,644 -17,235,604 -30,877,322 -43,027,601 -42,513,141 -41,984,088 -41,440,203 -40,881,242 -40,306,958 -39,717,100Marketing 0 -3,090,658 -6,894,242 -12,350,929 -17,211,040 -17,005,256 -16,793,635 -16,576,081 -16,352,497 -16,122,783 -15,886,840COGS (162,686,620)$ (215,705,762)$ (325,519,060)$ (325,146,586)$ (73,092,468)$ (72,465,761)$ (71,819,562)$ (71,153,541)$ (70,467,369)$ (69,760,707)$ (69,033,216)$ Depreciation 15,768,662 35,189,358 63,068,572 87,925,967 86,915,754 85,876,544 84,807,858 83,709,211 82,580,110 81,420,056 80,228,543EBIT -146,917,958 -153,351,714 -153,244,552 28,377,239 524,724,429 510,526,208 495,991,200 481,114,089 465,889,486 450,311,930 434,375,884EBIT*(1-tax) -105,780,930 -110,413,234 -110,336,078 20,431,612 377,801,589 367,578,870 357,113,664 346,402,144 335,440,430 324,224,590 312,750,637CF (90,012,268)$ (75,223,876)$ (47,267,505)$ 108,357,579$ 464,717,343$ 453,455,414$ 441,921,522$ 430,111,355$ 418,020,540$ 405,644,646$ 392,979,180$ NPV 1,337,853,377$
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