peak oil earth summit dialogue

Peak oil will change our world

Brendan F.D. BarrettUnited Nations University

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38

75

113

150

1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

The era of cheap oil is over!

Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook 2011

US$

Nominal Oil Price Real oil price (inflation adjusted)

What happens when oil prices spike?

US$80: United States economy goes into recession.

US$100: Inefficient airlines loose money and go bust.

US$150: Food prices rise causing riots in many developing countries.

US$200: Oil Crunch occurs with severe macro economic impacts.

The mechanics of oil prices are complex.

But one variable we cannot ignore is peak oil.

Peak oil is not a theory.

It is a physical reality.

In 1956 M. King Hubbert forecast that crude oil production in the United States would peak between 1965 and 1970.

It is generally accepted that he was correct!

There is no consensus on the timing of global peak oil.

In October 2009, UK Energy Research Centre compared 500 global oil production forecasts and identified why they are different.

Download report from: http://www.ukerc.ac.uk

Concluded that there is a significant risk of global oil production peak before 2020.

Why aren’t we more concerned about the reality of peak oil?

For many years, it was just retired geologists, like Dr. Colin Campbell, warning about peak oil.

But now global business leaders, like Richard Branson, are very worried.

Peak oil could force him out of business.

So Virgin joined the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil & Energy Security.

Their 2010 report predicts....

See: http://peakoiltaskforce.net/

“...oil crunch will happen in the next

five years...”

Robert Gates, US Secretary of State for Defense, is also worried.

He has a nation to defend and a world to police.

He warns that...“every time the price of oil goes up by 1 dollar per barrel it costs us about 130 million dollars.”

US Joint Forces Command states that by 2015...

“the shortfall in [oil] output could reach nearly 10 mbd [million barrels a day].”

... this will cause major tensions in the world.

The US military will...

- Introduce 4,000 electric vehicles by 2013.

- Power a naval fleet and half of all aviation with biofuels by 2016.

Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency, says conventional oil production peaked in 2006.

Until 2008, the IEA tended to make optimistic projections about future oil production levels.

Now they warn that we have to find the equivalent of four Saudi Arabias by 2030 in order to keep pace

with oil demand.

Scenario presented in the World Energy Outlook 2008

Revised scenario in the Uppsala World Oil Outlook

Oil production levels will remain static or fall.

Oil consumption in OECD countries is also falling.

Oil demand in non-OCED countries, including China and India, will continue to grow rapidly.

Oil consumption in major countries

0

7500

15000

22500

30000

1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

United States

Japan

China

India

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010

(thousand barrels per day)

Shell warns that...

“we are entering an era of volatile transitions

...a zone of extraordinary opportunity or misery.”

So how will peak oil change your world?

Fond farewells:Goodbye cheap package holiday and business air travel.

Hello local holiday resort, hello video conferencing.

Fond farewells:Goodbye cheap energy and fuel.

Hello less energy waste, more rationing, greater efficiencies.

Fond farewells:Goodbye my car (takes 90 barrels of oil to make one car).

Hello electric car share, or public transport.

Fond farewells:Goodbye industrial food system (0.7 ltrs of oil to make cheese burger).

Hello local, mainly vegetarian, healthy eating.

Fond farewells:Goodbye global just-in-time manufacturing.

Hello local jobs.

If you own a business then read 2010 report by Lloyds and

Chatham House...

“Businesses that take advantage of the new energy reality will

prosper - failure to do so could be catastrophic.”

See: http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/files/16720_0610_froggatt_lahn.pdf

If you are a policy-maker, read the 2005 Hirsch Report for the US

Department of Energy

Argues that if we do not act until peak oil arrives then we will face

20 years of painful economic transition.

See: www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf

Everyone read the Transition Handbook by Rob Hopkins

See: http://transitionculture.org/

Every community needs an energy descent plan...and many already have one!

The big question is ...

can we break free from our oil addiction?

Can we make a new global

operating system (version 2.0) that does not run on

oil?

Four key scenarios

Revolutionary/Systemic Change

Adaptation

Mitigation

Do Nothing(prey for a miracle)

Revolutionary/Systemic Change

Who?: Mark Jacobson (Stanford University), Tetsunari Iida (ISEP), WWF

Where?: Sweden, Germany, California

Long-term, sustainable solution, but massive social change.

100% renewable by specific date (e.g., by 2030 or 2050), phase out fossil fuels/nuclear power.

Power down (e.g., reduce energy consumption by 50%) through greater efficiencies and savings (negawatts).

Introduce smart grid, electric vehicle fleet and off-peak power storage (e.g., hydrogen fuel, batteries).

Unclear how liquid fuels problem will be solved (unless redirect oil saved from electricity generation) or how stable renewable electricity supply will be.

Promote both renewable and nuclear energy, but reduce fossil fuel use.

Massive technological innovation (e.g., globally requires 1xGW nuclear plant to be built every week for 25 years, 100 m2 of solar cells every second, etc).

Solve climate and energy security challenges at the same time.

Maintain existing lifestyles, convenience and services while reducing overall energy use (i.e. to 1/3 of present levels for Japan, 1/6 of US current levels).

Promote equitable solution for developed and developing countries.

Ignores nuclear accident risks. Future generations have to solve radioactive waste problem.

Adaptation

Who?: Saul Griffith, Shuzo Nishioka, Low Carbon Society, 2000 Watt Society

Where?: Switzerland, China, India and maybe Japan

Too late to adapt and therefore need emergency measures.

Promote administrative measures such as carpooling, telecommuting and fuel rationing.

Promote physical measures like fuel-efficient transportation; EOR in existing oil fields; liquid fuels from tar sands, coal-to-liquid/gas-to-liquid operations.

Calculate these measures could save 30 million barrels per day.

Excludes nuclear and renewables because they only produce electricity, not liquid fuels, and biomass-to-liquids because they require heavy subsidies.

Ignores impact on environment and climate (i.e., Canadian tar sands destroying huge area).

Mitigation

Who?: Robert Hirsch, UK Industry Peak Oil Taskforce, International Energy Agency

Where?: US, UK, Canada

Holmgren’s Four Energy Futures

http://www.futurescenarios.org/content/view/16/31/

Energy and Resource UsePopulation

Pollution

Climax(Post-modern

cultural chaos)

Pre-industrial sustainable culture

Agriculture10,000 years BP

Industrial revolution

Future Time

Collapse

EnergyDescent

Techno-Stability

Techno-Explosion

IndustrialAscent

Historical Time

At the United Nations University we launched

the Our World 2.0 webzine in July 2008

to explore the transition to a low carbon, post oil

era .

ourworld.unu.edu

@ourworld20

/Our-World-20

/UNUChannel

Lets work together in promoting this shift.

Thank you