oxford farming conference report

Key findings

Power in AgricultureReport looks at where the

economic, political and natural resource power lies in world agriculture

Asks what does this mean for UK farmers?

Commissioned by Oxford Farming Conference for 2012

Carried out by SAC’s Rural Policy Centre

Summary of conclusions UK relatively small player in ag markets but

punches above weight in global power

The most powerful countries for agriculture: 1) United States 2) EU27 3=) China 3=) Russia 4) UK 5) Japan 6) Australasia

Farmers in UK face significant pressures and position as an agricultural player depends on its ability to become significantly more productive

Regional Power Index for Agriculture

Economic power

Economically the big power players are the United States and the EU-27

Major trading nations plus bases of transnational corporations in supply of ag products

Economic power cont...Top 20 countries account for 78% of

global exports and 70% of global imports

Four companies account for 75% and 90% of global grain trade

Seven companies control virtually all fertiliser supply

Top 20 importers

Top exporters

Yearly wheat imports of world’s top importers

Yearly wheat export of world’s top exporters

Yearly imports of beef and veal

Yearly exports of beef and veal

Where are key corporations?

Global wheat export predictions

Economic power – the futurePower currently concentrated in North

America and Europe

Trade projections indicate unlikely to change up to 2020

China and Brazil have clear advantages in some commodity markets, but corporate power is lagging

Export capabilities of the EU-27 predicted to decline in next 10 years unless policy changes to increase productivity growth

Political powerPolitical power relevant to agriculture

concentrated in hands of United States, major EU countries and some others within G7

But EU will have to confront difficulties and competition for market access from emerging economies like China, India and Brazil

Natural resources UK relatively poorly endowed in global terms in

critical natural resources used in agriculture

Emerging economies better placed in terms of water and energy endowments ie Brazil, China, Russia

Water-intensive, fertiliser-intensive and energy-intensive agricultural practices of European countries are unlikely to be sustainable in long-term

Phosphate reserves

Conclusions for UK farmersThe UK punches above its weight in terms of

trade, corporate and political power, but it is behind Russia and China in terms of overall power thanks to its low natural resources

While Europe is expected to avoid the worst effects of climate change, the UK in particular faces challenges in terms of land, water and non-renewable energy

More conclusions... Increasingly tight supplies mean European

production has to become more efficient if current production is to be sustained. If the EU lost its economic and political powers, the situation for European agriculture could be even worse in future

Government policy needs to look more carefully at improving research and development to help farmers increase production, while export capabilities could be hit unless trade rules are altered

And finally...While emerging economies such as China

and Brazil have advantages in certain commodity markets, their corporate power in agriculture is still not on a par with the USA and the EU, especially UK, France and Germany. However, a major challenge is to balance corporate power with consumer and farmer power domestically