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Outlook for World Cotton Supply and Use
DGs Consultative Framework Mechanism on Cotton
Geneva
29 June 2012
International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC)
Terry Townsend
Cotlook A Index
0
50
100
150
200
2502010/11
U.S. cents/lb
2011/12
2009/10
-60%
-30%
0%
30%
60%
75/76 81/82 87/88 93/94 99/00 05/06 11/12
Season highest value
Season lowest value
Difference with respect to season average
Price Volatility by Season: Cotlook A Index
2011/12: 1 August – 17 April
WORLD FIBER PRODUCTION
0
10
20
30
40
50
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Cotton
Polyester
Million tons
Fiber Prices
40
80
120
160
200
240
Aug-06 Apr-08 Dec-09 Aug-11
U.S. Cents per Pound
Cotlook A Index
China Polyester
15
20
25
30
02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13
World Cotton Production & Mill UseMillion tons
Production
Mill Use
Production surplus
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
02468
10121416
02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13
World Ending Stocks
Million tons Stocks-to-Use Ratio in the World-less-China
Price Ratios at Planting Time – NorthHemisphere
Cotton relative to Competing Crops
0
5
10
15
20
Maize Soybeans Wheat Rice
07 08 09 10 11 12
Price ratio
6.45.4
3.7
2.11.6
1.1 0.9 0.7 0.6
0
2
4
6
82010/11 2011/12 2012/13
Cotton Production
Million Tons
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12
Share Production Million Tons
Cotton Production in Africa
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
90/91 93/94 96/97 99/00 02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12
Francophone Africa
Eastern & Southern Africa
North Africa
Africa: Cotton Production by RegionMillion tons
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
0
200
400
600
800
95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12
Yields Area Million Ha
Francophone Africa:Cotton Area and Yields
Kg/ha
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
90/91 93/94 96/97 99/00 02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12
World
Francophone Africa
Cotton YieldsKg/ha
0.71.9 1.4
4.22.3 2.5
1.52.4 2.6
5.0
2.8
5.8
5.3 5.9
5.4
5.9 6.0
5.1
5.5 5.1
4.1
4.8
0
2
4
6
8
10
02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13
China World less China
World Cotton Imports
Million tons
Purchases of Cotton for the Chinese National Reserve
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
28-Sep-11 27-Nov-11 26-Jan-12 26-Mar-12
PurchasesCumulative
Thousand Tons Million Tons
5.0
0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4
2.8
0.8 0.8 0.5 0.4
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
China Bangladesh Turkey Indonesia Vietnam
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
Cotton ImportsMillion tons
Share of Global Cotton Imports in 2011/12
55% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3%
2.5
1.9
1.0 1.0
0.6 0.5
00.5
11.5
22.5
33.5
US India Australia Brazil Franc. Africa Uzbek.
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
Cotton ExportsMillion tons
Share of Global Cotton Exports in 2011/12
28% 21% 11% 11% 6% 6%
COTLOOK A INDEX
020406080
100120140160180
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
US cents per pound
www.ICAC.org
International Cotton AdvisoryCommittee
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