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Outlook for India’s Refining Landscape
Antony Francis
Reliance Industries Ltd
Singapore 9th March 2017
2
Disclaimer
Any statement, opinion, prediction, comment, or observation made in this
presentation/publication are those of the presenter/author only and in no condition
should be construed necessarily representing the policy and intent of Reliance
Industries Ltd. (RIL).
The information presented herein are of the presenter/author’s own and in no way RIL
attracts any liability for any inconsistency or irregularity in terms of the accuracy
completeness, veracity, or truth of the content of the presentation/publication. In
addition, RIL shall not be liable for any copyright infringement and misrepresentation for
the presented content as the content is presumed in good faith to be a creation of
presenter’s/author’s own mind.
The scope of this presentation/publication is strictly for knowledge sharing purposes and
not necessarily to provide any advice or recommendation to the audience/readers. Any
endorsement, recommendation, suggestion, or advice made by the presenter/author
shall be in his personal capacity and not in professional capacity as an employee of RIL.
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© Reliance Industries Ltd.
3 Higher volumes + superior quality- India’s refining outlook
Refining Outlook
● Growth
‒ High demand growth, driven by India’s GDP + population growth
‒ Divert products from export to domestic markets – short term
‒ Expand + upgrade + modernize existing refineries – short term
‒ Add new, complex + integrated refineries – long term
● Quality
‒ Upgrade gasoline + diesel to Euro 6, by skipping Euro 5
‒ Upgrade fuel oil to 0.5% S, as per IMO/MARPOL
● Integration
‒ Refinery + petrochemicals
‒ Oil + gas co-feeds
‒ Conventional + renewable co-products
● Automation
‒ Internet of Things (IoT)
‒ Advanced automation
‒ Artificial Intelligence (AI)
4
India’s refining: History
India’s refining transformation: Imports to exports
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
mmt/yr
Gasoline Diesel
• Reliance Jamnagar 1 = Usher in fuel self sufficiency in India
• Reliance Jamnagar 2 = Transform India into an export hub for refinery products
Source: PPAC
5
Growth: Refining capacity
Squeeze max product from a crude barrel to satisfy demand growth
• CAGR = 4%, for next 6 years
• No new refineries planned, after IndianOil Paradip, up to 2021
• Major debottlenecking + expansion of existing refineries for supply growth
• Continuous refining capacity increase by creep
Source: IHS
150
170
190
210
230
250
270
290
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
mmt/yr
6
Growth: Gasoline + diesel
GDP + population growth drive refinery fuel demand in India
• Gasoline CAGR = 6.1%, from 8.3%, up to 2025
• Diesel CAGR = 2.5%, from 4.6%, up to 2025
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
mmt/yr
Gasoline DieselSource: IHS
7 Leap-frog fuel quality in India
Quality: Gasoline + diesel
Diesel Euro 6
Density, kg/m3 Max 845
Sulphur, wt ppm Max 10
T95, 0C Max 360
Cetane number Min 51
Gasoline Euro 6
Sulphur, wt ppm Max 10
FBP, 0C Max 210
RON Min 95
Aromatics, vol% Max 35
Olefins, vol% Max 18
Benzene, vol% Max 1
• Reduce S from existing 50 – 350 ppm to 10 ppm or Euro 6
• Improve air quality, with clean fuels
• Skip Euro 5 or 50ppm S to harmonize with global standards.
• Target a common,10 ppm ultra-low S fuel quality, throughout India.
• With 2020, only 3 years available for quality changeover
• Require major refinery revamps for quality upgrade
8 Revolutionize bottom-of-the barrel processing
Quality: Marine bunker
■ Fuel Oil (FO) for marine bunker
• New IMO/MARPOL regulations for FO in 2020
• Reduce FO from existing 3.5% to 0.5% S by 2020
• Require either on – board scrubbers or FO quality upgrade
• FO quality upgrade shall transform future refining
■ Processing impact
• FO outlet blocked for blending high S refinery streams
• Process heavies or perish
– Blend kero / diesel into FO
– Hydro-treat FO to 0.5%S
– Hydrocrack VGO, with unconverted to FO
– Hydrocrack resid to distillates, with unconverted to FO
■ Refinery impact
• Transform FO from –ve to +ve crack margin
• Boost jet / diesel margins driven by FO blending
• Implement bottom-of-the-barrel upgrading in refineries:
– Resid hydrocracking = Ebullating or slurry
– Need low cost H2 or gas integration for hydrocracking
– Unconverted hydrocracker bottoms = Future 0.5% S FO blend-stock
9 Refining must drive India’s petrochemicals growth
Integration: Petrochemicals
• Demand
– Petrochemicals >> fuel demand growth in India
– Major imports of chemicals ~ 30% and growing
– Transform India’s refining into petrochemical supply hubs
• Integration
– Heavy naphtha to aromatics, via CCR reforming
– Lt naphtha / hydrocracker btms to olefins, via steam cracking
– VGO to olefins, via max - conversion FCC
– Refinery off-gas to olefins, via steam cracking
– Syngas to chemicals, via C1 chemistry
– C3 + C4 to propylene + butadiene, via de-hydrogenation
– Deepen petrochemicals integration with refinery
10 Integrate oil + gas as co-feeds in refining
Integration: Gas
■ LNG imports
• Co-gen fuel for power + steam
• Feed to H2 for clean fuels
• Fuel additives via methanol
■ Syngas alternative
• Gasify pet-coke + resid to syngas
• Substitute LNG with syngas
• Syngas as a fountainhead for chemicals:
– Acetic acid + acetyl derivatives
– Methanol + methanol derivatives
– Oxo alcohols + ester derivatives
– MDI + isocyanate derivatives
– MEG + polyester derivatives
– MMA
11 Integrate renewable fuels in refining
Integration: Renewable
• COP 21
– Reaffirm India’s commitment to COP 21 – Paris accord
– Reduce C intensity by 33%
– Generate 40% electricity from renewable resources
• Renewables in refining
– Integrate renewable fuels in refining
– Target agricultural waste as biomass feed
– Convert biomass to pyro fuel for internal fuel
– Upgrade biomass to 2G ethanol, for gasoline blending
– Future fuels = Conventional plus renewables
– Stretch crude to fuels with renewables
12 Data is the new oil for 21st century refining
Automation
• Internet of Things (IoT)
– Embed instrument + control systems, with self communication capability
– Upload big data from refineries to the cloud
– Analyze big data for intelligent refining
• Advanced automation
– Measure + monitor + evaluate, 24 x 7, with cloud - connected sensors
– Global view, from integrated + streaming data, via cloud computing
– Pattern recognition + machine learning, via refinery big data analysis
– Enhanced mobility + support for refinery field operators
– Advanced 3D visualization for troubleshooting
• Artificial intelligence(AI)
– Abnormal event detection to prevent loss time incident
– Augmented reality to support refinery maintenance + inspection
– Preserve refinery knowledge base, via AI driven search engines
13 Innovate for sustainable refining
Conclusion
• Transform refineries
– Max fuels from crude barrel
– Clean fuels for ecology
– Bottom-of-the-barrel processing for marine transport
• Integrate refineries
– Fountainhead for petrochemicals, with deep integration
– Co-process oil + gas for hydrocarbon optimization
– Augment fuel volumes, with renewables
• Automate refineries
– Implement IoT, + advanced automation + AI in refining
– Ultimate in safety + flexibility + reliability for refining
– Transform processing into smart + intelligent refining
Thank You Thank You
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