optimizing hybrid vehicles via route prediction jon froehlich & john krumm hci intern talk july...

Optimizing Hybrid Vehicles via Route

Prediction

jon froehlich & john krumm

HCI Intern TalkJuly 26th, 2007

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U.S. Department of Energy, 2007http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/gas1.html

u.s. gas prices

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global gas prices

U.S. Department of Energy, 2007http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/gas1.html

Italy

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United Kingdom

Canada

Germany

Japan

India

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European Union

China

United States

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CO2 emissions (2003)

2003 United Nations Statistics Divisionhttp://www.un.org/

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050

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Industrial

Residential and commercial

Electric utilities

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u.s. oil demand by sector

U.S. Department of Transportation, 2005http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_04_03.html

International Energy Agencyhttp://www.iea.org/

why hybrids?

U.S. Department of Energy, 2001http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/tech/TechSnapPrius1_5_01b.pdf

how hybrids work

series

CombustionEngine

parallel

CombustionEngine

at low speeds

http://www.toyota.com/vehicles/2007/prius

highway cruising

http://www.toyota.com/vehicles/2007/prius

heavy acceleration

http://www.toyota.com/vehicles/2007/prius

engine idling

http://www.toyota.com/vehicles/2007/prius

regenerative braking

http://www.toyota.com/vehicles/2007/prius

what if we could predict a driver’s route?

road grade road curvature traffic conditions

HEV Charge/Discharge Control System Based onNavigation Information

Convergence Transportation Electronics Association 2004Nissan Motor Company

road grade traffic conditions

Predestination:Inferring Destinations from Partial Trajectories Ubiquitous Computing 2006

John Krumm and Eric Horvitz

Trip starts, uniform destination probability

4 squares south, half of region eliminated

More squares in trip, ¾ of region eliminated

msmls dataset

As of today 251 subjects 2,131,440 data points

UbiComp 2006 189 subjects 1,351,669 points 73,903 miles 9414 trips

predestinationfor routes?

gps massagingroute segmentationroute comparisonroute periodicity (recurrence)route prediction

gps massaging

Breaking the sound barrier (and all other sorts of physical feats) on the way to work

GPS can be noisy

route recurrence

And they often have a temporal pattern: 8 of the 9 trips along this route occurred between 8:00 & 9:30AM

Yes, people do drive the exact same routes over and over again

route profiles

37:42.040:47.044:34.047:35.050:36.018:36.031:08.034:17.038:20.00

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Elevation Gain

Elev

ation

(fee

t)

evaluation

stage 1Mine the MSMLS datasetCheck our route prediction algorithmCheck our deceleration prediction algorithms

stage 2Create (or purchase) hybrid simulatorDynamically shift power train policiesCompare with baselineEvaluate based on better electrical motor utilization, state of charge, and fuel economy

contributions

Predicting speed, acceleration (and deceleration), and elevation along route

Automatic route prediction

Studying effect of route prediction and dynamic power train policies through simulation

questions?comments?

other ideas?