operations analysis in bulgaria and nato

Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO

Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO

Klaus NiemeyerKlaus Niemeyer

Klaus Niemeyer - Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO

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VictoryVictory SuccessSuccess

ComparisonComparisonOperations Operations

AnalysisAnalysis

CalculationCalculation Model ApplicationModel Application(Simulation)(Simulation)

AssessmentAssessment ModelModel

MeasurementsMeasurements Mathematics, Physics, ...Mathematics, Physics, ...

GroundGround Perception of RealityPerception of Reality

ANCIENTANCIENT TODAYTODAY

Sun Tzu and Scientific SupportSun Tzu and Scientific SupportSun Tzu and Scientific SupportSun Tzu and Scientific Support

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Definition of Operations Definition of Operations ResearchResearch

Definition of Operations Definition of Operations ResearchResearch

"OR is a scientific method of providing executive administrators with a decisions regarding the operations under their control."

"OR is a scientific method of providing executive administrators with a quantitative basis for decisions regarding the operations under their control."

Morse, Kimball 1950Morse, Kimball 1950

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Reduction of Reduction of ComplexityComplexity

ResearchResearch

EngineeringEngineering

NoiseNoise

NoiseNoise

NoiseNoise

TestingTesting

TrainingTraining

RealityReality

CoreCore

ConstructConstruct

AnalysesAnalyses

SynthesesSyntheses

AddingAddingComplexityComplexity

ModelModel

ConstructConstruct

ConstructConstruct

Evolution of Modelling and SimulationEvolution of Modelling and Simulation

PrototypingPrototyping

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For given objectives:For given objectives:

of forces in order to optimizeof forces in order to optimize

resources?resources?

What is the best composition,What is the best composition,

and:and:

What is the best employmentWhat is the best employment

xxx x

xxIII

"To win without fighting is best."

Sun Tzu

Defense PlanningDefense Planning

Operational PlanningOperational Planning

The Operations Analysis The Operations Analysis ProblemProblem

The Operations Analysis The Operations Analysis ProblemProblem

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OA in NATOOA in NATOOA in NATOOA in NATONATO(NC3A, Military HQ, (RTO),..)USA (Rand, IDA, …)UKGermanyFranceCanadaThe NetherlandsNorwayDenmarkTurkey….

NATO(NC3A, Military HQ, (RTO),..)USA (Rand, IDA, …)UKGermanyFranceCanadaThe NetherlandsNorwayDenmarkTurkey….

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MilitaryMilitary PlannersPlannersScientistsScientists

ProblemProblem

OptionsOptions

ToolsTools SolutionSolution

Joint AnalysisJoint AnalysisJoint AnalysisJoint Analysis

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Wide Scope of ProcessesWide Scope of ProcessesWide Scope of ProcessesWide Scope of Processes

FORCE PREPARATION

DEFENSESTRUCTURE

DEPLOYMENT

PREPARATIONIN THEATRE

INFRASTRUCTUREPREPARATION

CONTINGENCYPLANNING

SUSTAINMENT

ENGAGEMENT

REDEPLOYMENTFORCEIDENTIFICATION

INTELLIGENCE

OPERATIONOPERATIONPEACEPEACE

TRAINING

TRANSITIONTRANSITION

Defense Defense PlanningPlanning OperationalOperational

PlanningPlanning

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Analysis of ObjectiveAnalysis of Objective

ObjectiveObjective

Development of OptionsDevelopment of Options

Assessment of OptionsAssessment of Options

DecisionDecisionPlanningPlanning

ExecutionExecution

Own ForcesOwn ForcesOpponent ForcesOpponent Forces-Capability?-Capability?-Intention?-Intention?

Force ComparisonForce Comparison

StatusStatus

PlanningPlanning““What, if’”What, if’”

MissionMissionMissionMission

SituationSituationAnalysesAnalysesSituationSituationAnalysesAnalyses

EnvironmentEnvironment-Terrain-Terrain-Weather-Weather-Population-Population

PerceptionPerception

AnticipationAnticipation

Decision CycleDecision CycleDecision CycleDecision Cycle

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Present IssuesPresent IssuesPresent IssuesPresent Issues

Operational SupportTraining: CAXCapability RequirementsConcept Development & ExperimentationNet Enabled Capabilities- C4ISR

Operational SupportTraining: CAXCapability RequirementsConcept Development & ExperimentationNet Enabled Capabilities- C4ISR

Logical Build up of ObjectivesLogical Build up of ObjectivesLogical Build up of ObjectivesLogical Build up of Objectives

AnalysesAnalyses

StartStart 1 2 EndEndYearYear

MethodologyMethodology

Centre of ExcellenceCentre of Excellence

Scientific Basis in BulgariaScientific Basis in Bulgaria

Project:

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Criteria of SuccessCriteria of SuccessCriteria of SuccessCriteria of Success

1.Objective: Centre of Excellence (25%) Accepted papers in international magazins Hired scientists in NC3A

2.Objective: Methodology (25%) Participants in OR conferences RTO-SAS/NMSG participation

3.Objective: Analyses (50%) Tasking organisations in Bulgaria Projects for NC3A

1.Objective: Centre of Excellence (25%) Accepted papers in international magazins Hired scientists in NC3A

2.Objective: Methodology (25%) Participants in OR conferences RTO-SAS/NMSG participation

3.Objective: Analyses (50%) Tasking organisations in Bulgaria Projects for NC3A

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TACOM Exercise TACOM Exercise General Structure General Structure TACOM Exercise TACOM Exercise General Structure General Structure

Control/Leadership Control/Leadership

ParticipantsParticipants

DialogueDialogue

Training/TeachingTraining/TeachingGeneration of KnowledgeGeneration of Knowledge

EnvironmentEnvironmentSimulationSimulation

(Script)(Script)

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TACOM: Standard SoftwareTACOM: Standard SoftwareTACOM: Standard SoftwareTACOM: Standard Software

MS-Data Access MS-Data Access ObjectsObjects

MS-Visual BasicMS-Visual Basic(Applications)(Applications)

Map Objects/ArcViewMap Objects/ArcView(Situation)(Situation)MS-AccessMS-Access

MS-WordMS-Word

MS-OutlookMS-Outlook(Macros)(Macros)

PowersimPowersim(Simulation)(Simulation) MS-ExcelMS-Excel

ScriptScript( Preparation)( Preparation)

Communication, Communication, Events, SituationEvents, SituationDocumentationDocumentation(Exercise)(Exercise)

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TACOM software architectureTACOM software architectureTACOM software architectureTACOM software architecture

Message Handling System

Display System

MessagesMessages

Simulation

StaticStatic

DynamicDynamicScript

Command&ControlCommand&Control ScenarioScenario

ParticipantsParticipants

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Defense Requirements Review Defense Requirements Review (Plan 2015)(Plan 2015)

Defense Requirements Review Defense Requirements Review (Plan 2015)(Plan 2015)

Planning Situations /Scenarios

Capability Requirements

Force Structure

Political Guidance

Security Environment

Risk Assessment

Constraints

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AttributesAttributesAttributesAttributes

Operations orientedStaff rotationHigh responsibilityHigh visibilityGovernment

Operations orientedStaff rotationHigh responsibilityHigh visibilityGovernment

CompetitionProfit orientedEffective-productiveHigh salariesAttractive

CompetitionProfit orientedEffective-productiveHigh salariesAttractive

Scientific standardsVerification/Falsification TransparencyThink tankNot for profitLow salariesNeutralContinuity

Scientific standardsVerification/Falsification TransparencyThink tankNot for profitLow salariesNeutralContinuity

Military:Military:

Science:Science:

Commercial:Commercial:

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Fundamental PrinciplesFundamental PrinciplesFundamental PrinciplesFundamental Principles

Neutrality („non for profit“, no mercantile accomplisments)Continuity (Corporate knowledge, long term employees,

reputation)Flexibility (Quick response, no bureaucratic constraints)Scientific State of Art (Link to scientific and industrial

communities)Customer Relationship (High integration, co-operation,

synergies)Management (Planning, Controlling, Motivation)

Neutrality („non for profit“, no mercantile accomplisments)Continuity (Corporate knowledge, long term employees,

reputation)Flexibility (Quick response, no bureaucratic constraints)Scientific State of Art (Link to scientific and industrial

communities)Customer Relationship (High integration, co-operation,

synergies)Management (Planning, Controlling, Motivation)

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The Optimum Organisational The Optimum Organisational StructureStructure

The Optimum Organisational The Optimum Organisational StructureStructure

Non for Profit

Basic Funding

Independent

Attractive Salaries

Integrated into Scientific Community

Close Relation to Customer

Non for Profit

Basic Funding

Independent

Attractive Salaries

Integrated into Scientific Community

Close Relation to Customer

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ConclusionsConclusionsConclusionsConclusions

Defense research organizations in Bulgaria do not have managementarrangements, appropriate for the conduct of or participation in researchprojects, and especially international research projects. It is difficult to find, motivate and keep involved young scientists in thecurrent environment in BAS.The culture of using OA / CAX requires considerable further promotion andimprovement among end-users in the security sector.Support from international experts and the integration into internationalprojects is essential for the continuity of the capability.The methodology of applied Operations Analysis, (not only the classicalmathematical Operations Research) Modeling, and Simulation should be a keyelement in academic curricula.The existence of the established capacity can only be sustained if a sufficientThe existence of the established capacity can only be sustained if a sufficientfunding and tasking by the end users is guarantied.funding and tasking by the end users is guarantied.The capacity of a “think tank” institution is a high value asset in nationalThe capacity of a “think tank” institution is a high value asset in nationalsecurity structures.security structures.The payoff for the investment in such an institution is very large in comparison to The payoff for the investment in such an institution is very large in comparison to

other defense assets or in relation to potentially wrong decisions in catastrophic other defense assets or in relation to potentially wrong decisions in catastrophic situations.situations.

Defense research organizations in Bulgaria do not have managementarrangements, appropriate for the conduct of or participation in researchprojects, and especially international research projects. It is difficult to find, motivate and keep involved young scientists in thecurrent environment in BAS.The culture of using OA / CAX requires considerable further promotion andimprovement among end-users in the security sector.Support from international experts and the integration into internationalprojects is essential for the continuity of the capability.The methodology of applied Operations Analysis, (not only the classicalmathematical Operations Research) Modeling, and Simulation should be a keyelement in academic curricula.The existence of the established capacity can only be sustained if a sufficientThe existence of the established capacity can only be sustained if a sufficientfunding and tasking by the end users is guarantied.funding and tasking by the end users is guarantied.The capacity of a “think tank” institution is a high value asset in nationalThe capacity of a “think tank” institution is a high value asset in nationalsecurity structures.security structures.The payoff for the investment in such an institution is very large in comparison to The payoff for the investment in such an institution is very large in comparison to

other defense assets or in relation to potentially wrong decisions in catastrophic other defense assets or in relation to potentially wrong decisions in catastrophic situations.situations.

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DeterrenceDeterrence

PersuasionPersuasion

Research Research and Developmentand Development

Virtual Virtual PotentialPotential

AquisitionAquisition

DemonstrationDemonstration

Projection of PowerProjection of Power

ForcesForces

Projection of Projection of CapabilitiesCapabilities

ResourcesResources

ResourcesResources

The Change of ParadigmThe Change of ParadigmThe Change of ParadigmThe Change of Paradigm