nsta web seminar: the heat is on! climate change and coral reef ecosystems ocean acidification

NSTA Web Seminar:

The Heat is On! Climate Change and Coral Reef Ecosystems

Ocean Acidification

Presented by Dr. Dwight Gledhill, NOAA

LIVE INTERACTIVE LEARNING @ YOUR DESKTOP

Thursday, April 2, 2009

2

Ocean AcidificationWhat it is and what it means…

NSTA Elluminate Web Seminar 2009

Presented by:Dr. Dwight Gledhill

Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory

Assisted on the chat by:Dr. Mark Eakin (Coral Reef Watch)Tyler Christensen (Coral Reef Watch)Paulo Maurin (Coral Reef Conservation Prog.)Bruce Moravchik (NOAA)

PART IMaking the case for a

Balanced Budget Amendment

3

The Growing Challenge of Population & Energy

4

http://www.history.com/earth/images/over_population2.jpg

http://www.raisethehammer.org/images/world_population_growth.jpg

5

Global “Weirding”

Slide provided by John Dunne (GFDL)

420

470

6

Global “Weirding”

Slide provided by John Dunne (GFDL)

7

Keeping a Balanced Budget

1 Gt = 1,000,000,000 tons

UNESCO (2006) Updated from Sabine et al (2004), SCOPE 62

Slide provided by John Dunne (GFDL)

8

Keeping a Balanced Budget

Slide provided by John Dunne (GFDL)

UNESCO (2006) Updated from Sabine et al (2004), SCOPE 62

1 Gt = 1,000,000,000 tons

9

Let’s Pause for Two Questions.

PART IIOcean Acidification

That “Other” CO2 Problem

10

The Basic Chemistry

≈ 48% of anthropogenic

CO2 taken up by the ocean

CO2

The Basic Chemistry

≈ ≈ 48% of 48% of anthropogenic anthropogenic

COCO2 2 taken up by the taken up by the

oceanocean

CO2

The Basic Chemistry

≈ ≈ 48% of 48% of anthropogenic anthropogenic

COCO2 2 taken up by the taken up by the

oceanocean

CO2

Poll QuestionBased on the previous equation, if the CO2

concentration increases what will happen to the pH?

A) pH goes up (become more basic)

B) pH goes down (becomes more acidic)

C) pH stays the same due to buffering action

The Basic Chemistry

pH

CO32-

CO2(aq)

Wolf-Gladrow et al., 1999

The Basic Chemistry

pH

CO32-

CO2(aq)

Wolf-Gladrow et al., 1999

17

Derived surface (50 m) values obtained using on-line data available at http://hahana.soest.hawaii.edu/hot/hot-dogs/ and solved using the Lewis E. and Wallace D.W.R. (1998) Basic program for CO2 system in seawater. ORNL/CDIAC-105, Oak Ridge National Lab

NOAA CMDL CCGG CO2 data at Mauna Loa, HI

Plant/Animal/Mineral

18

Reef Community

Slide after of Joan Kleypas, NCAR

Poll Question

What is currently considered the primary threat posed to coral reefs by "Ocean Acidification"? A) corals will dissolve B) reef growth will be compromised C) corals will expel their zooxanthellae D) there will be fewer fish E) coral will  grow too quickly

A) corals will dissolve

B) reef growth will be compromised

C) corals will expel their zooxanthellae

D) there will be fewer fish

E) coral will  grow too quickly

21

Let’s Pause for Two Questions.

PART III

My Favorite Greek Letter

What it means and where it’s going…

22

23

Saturation State ()

W>1precipitation1dissolution

Ca2 CO32 CaCO3

phasesp

phase K

COCa

,

23

2

Saturation state describes the degree to which a solution is saturated with respect to a mineral phase

24

Important Benthic Calcifiers

NOAA SW Ross

Impacts of Increasing Ocean Acidification on Coral Reefs and Other Marine Calcifiers: A Guide for Future Research, 2006

25

Coccolithophores

T. Tyrrel

Forams

Important Planktonic Calcifiers

H. Spero

C. Farmer

Images courtesy of Joan Kleypas, NCAR

26

Carbonate Shells Provide Many Functions

D. Lea

P. Harrison

T Hughes

Slide courtesy of Joan Kleypas, NCAR

1. Protection

2. Buoyancy

3. Light modification

4. Reproduction

5. Anchoring to the substrate

6. Extension above the bottom

7. Competition for space

after Feely et al (in press) with Modeled Saturation Levels from Orr et al (2005)

Predictions of Ocean Acidification in the Global Oceans

Aragonite Saturation State

after Feely et al (in press) with Modeled Saturation Levels from Orr et al (2005)

Aragonite Saturation State

Predictions of Ocean Acidification in the Global Oceans

PART IV

30

31

Biosphere 2

Aquaria/Mesocosms

SHARQ

Measured responses of marine calcifying organisms to increased pCO2

Ocean Acidification: Impacts on Corals and Reefs

CalcificationBioerosion

Dissolution

Coral Reef “Growth” in the Balance

Coral Reef “Growth” in the Balance

Calcification

Bioerosion

Dissolution

35

Let’s Pause for Two Questions.

PART V

36

37

39

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.08.0 8.4

7.85 7.95

7.60 7.70

Frac

tion

Blea

ched

pH

380

ppm

520

– 70

0 pp

m

1000

– 1

300

ppm

40

41

The Eastern Tropical Pacific goes Global?

Should atmospheric CO2 levels achieve 550 ppm most tropical coral reefs will reside in waters akin to the Tropical East Pacific

42

Let’s Pause for Two Questions.

PART VITrouble comes in….

43

44

44

Deep-Water Coral Reef Ecosystems

Mapped distribution of known deep(cold)-water coral

Freiwald, A 2004; http://ec.europa.eu/fisheries/cfp/management_resources/ environment/destructive/problem_en.htm

45

“Living on the Edge”of the

Aragonite Saturation Horizon

45

www.co2.ulg.ac.be

Aragonite Saturation Horizon (ASH)

Deep-Water Coral Reef Ecosystems

46

www.co2.ulg.ac.be

46

1765

Guinotte et al., 2006

95% of deep-sea coral above ASH

surface

Aragonite Saturation Horizon (ASH)

Deep-Water Coral Reef Ecosystems

47

www.co2.ulg.ac.be

47

1995

Guinotte et al., 2006

surface

Aragonite Saturation Horizon (ASH)

Deep-Water Coral Reef Ecosystems

48

www.co2.ulg.ac.be

48

2060

Guinotte et al., 2006

surface

Aragonite Saturation Horizon (ASH)

Deep-Water Coral Reef Ecosystems

49

www.co2.ulg.ac.be

49

2099

Guinotte et al., 200625% of deep-sea coral above ASH

surface

Aragonite Saturation Horizon (ASH)

Deep-Water Coral Reef Ecosystems

50

Let’s Pause for Two Questions.

PART VII

What we don’t know …

51

52

53

The Big Questions Remain?

•Effects on Ocean Food Webs?

•Effect on Coral Reef Ecosystems?

•Species Adaptation?

•Climate Feedbacks?

•Increased Ocean Stratification?

•Terrestrial Input?

•Physiological Mechanisms?

•Carbonate chemistry on reefs?

54

Atlantic Ocean Acidification Test-bed: A nexus of monitoring a research OA activities in the Greater Caribbean uniting autonomous and discrete sampling platforms in concert with process and modeling studies. http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/coastal/LaParguera/La_Parguera_main.htm.

NOAA PMEL MAPCO2 (Jan, 2009)

USGSSHARQ Mesocosm(March, 2009)

NOAA AOML ICON (Jan, 2006)

Columbia Univ.boundary layer flux machine (Feb, 2009)

55

Atlantic Ocean Acidification Test-bed: A nexus of monitoring a research OA activities in the Greater Caribbean uniting autonomous and discrete sampling platforms in concert with process and modeling studies. http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/coastal/LaParguera/La_Parguera_main.htm.

NOAA PMEL MAPCO2 (Jan, 2009)

USGSSHARQ Mesocosm(March, 2009)

NOAA AOML ICON (Jan, 2006)

Columbia Univ.boundary layer flux machine (Feb, 2009)

56

NOAA PMEL MAPCO2 (Jan, 2009)

USGSSHARQ Mesocosm(March, 2009)

NOAA AOML ICON (Jan, 2006)

Columbia Univ.boundary layer flux machine (Feb, 2009)

Atlantic Ocean Acidification Test-bed: A nexus of monitoring a research OA activities in the Greater Caribbean uniting autonomous and discrete sampling platforms in concert with process and modeling studies. http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/coastal/LaParguera/La_Parguera_main.htm.

Res

pira

tion

Cal

cific

atio

n

CO2

57

NOAA PMEL MAPCO2 (Jan, 2009)

USGSSHARQ Mesocosm(March, 2009)

NOAA AOML ICON (Jan, 2006)

Columbia Univ.boundary layer flux machine (Feb, 2009)

Atlantic Ocean Acidification Test-bed: A nexus of monitoring a research OA activities in the Greater Caribbean uniting autonomous and discrete sampling platforms in concert with process and modeling studies. http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/coastal/LaParguera/La_Parguera_main.htm.

Photo

synth

esis

Disso

lutio

n

CO2

58

NOAA PMEL MAPCO2 (Jan, 2009)

USGSSHARQ Mesocosm(March, 2009)

NOAA AOML ICON (Jan, 2006)

Columbia Univ.boundary layer flux machine (Feb, 2009)

ar

g

Atlantic Ocean Acidification Test-bed: A nexus of monitoring a research OA activities in the Greater Caribbean uniting autonomous and discrete sampling platforms in concert with process and modeling studies. http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/coastal/LaParguera/La_Parguera_main.htm.

PART VIII

59

Some Final Thoughts

60

Trajectory of Global Fossil Fuel Emissions

Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS

Recent emissions

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

CO

2 E

mis

sion

s (G

tC y

-1)

5

6

7

8

9

10Actual emissions: CDIACActual emissions: EIA450ppm stabilisation650ppm stabilisationA1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100C

O2 E

mis

sion

s (G

tC y

-1)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30Actual emissions: CDIAC450ppm stabilisation650ppm stabilisationA1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2

Trajectory of Global Fossil Fuel Emissions

Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS

Recent emissions

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

CO

2 E

mis

sion

s (G

tC y

-1)

5

6

7

8

9

10Actual emissions: CDIACActual emissions: EIA450ppm stabilisation650ppm stabilisationA1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100C

O2 E

mis

sion

s (G

tC y

-1)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30Actual emissions: CDIAC450ppm stabilisation650ppm stabilisationA1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2

20062005

Raupach et al 2007, PNAS

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1980

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1980

World

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

F (emissions)P (population)g = G/Ph = F/G

Fact

or (r

elat

ive to

199

0)

EmissionsPopulation

Drivers of Anthropogenic Emissions

Concluding Remarks

• Ocean Acidification is a direct chemical response to rising atmospheric concentrations of CO2

• There is mounting evidence that such changes in surface ocean chemistry may challenge marine ecosystems this century.

• Coral reefs may prove particularly vulnerable through reduced accretion (growth) rages

• Balance your budget• Reduce, reuse, recycle, • Act on the best available intel

Special Thanks to for sponsoring this Web Seminar!

http://www.elluminate.com

http://learningcenter.nsta.org

NLC screenshot

National Science Teachers AssociationDr. Francis Q. Eberle, Executive Director

Zipporah Miller, Associate Executive Director Conferences and Programs

Al Byers, Assistant Executive Director e-Learning

NSTA Web SeminarsPaul Tingler, Director

Jeff Layman, Technical Coordinator