ns4301 summer term 2015 predicting expropriation
Post on 04-Jan-2016
220 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
NS4301Summer Term 2015
Predicting Expropriation
Overview
• Randal Jones, “A Model for Predicting Expropriation in Latin America: Applied to Jamaica,” Colombia Journal of World Business, 2001
• Illustration of several statistical techniques
• Data Reduction – Factor Analysis
• Profiling – Discriminant Analysis
• Quantum Change -- Threshold Analysis
• Problems
• Large data set
• Little in way of theory
• Not clear data set captures relevant factors underlying expropriation
2
Data Set I
3
Data Set II
4
Data Set III
5
Data Set IV
6
Data Set V
7
Factor Analysis: Data Reduction
8
Grouping/Discriminate Analysis
9
Discriminate Scores: Probabilities of Correct Placement
10
Correct Group Placement
11
Model Applied to Jamaica
• Jamaica expropriates in 1974
• How well did the model do in prediction?
12
top related