non-res lighting savings forecast project timelines
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September 6th
Non-Res Lighting Savings Forecast
Project Timelines
Hot Water
ETHAN MANTHEY
JESSICA AIONA
NON-RESIDENTIAL LIGHTING
MOMENTUM SAVINGS FORECAST
MODEL STRUCTURE AND SCOPE
3
Sectors
14
Applications
3
Purchase
Triggers
16
Technologies
CALCULATING MARKET SAVINGS
Baseline Stock
Consumption
Actual Stock
Consumption
Baseline = Frozen Baseline = Sales Mix Frozen at 2015 Efficiency
Market Savings
RAPID CHANGE EXPECTED
24% DECREASE IN
CONSUMPTION
372 aMW
MARKET SAVINGS
LED Sales Dominate in 2020
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
TLED
T5SO
T5HO
T12
Pin CFL
Metal Halide
Mercury Vapor
LED Luminaire
LED Lamp
Inc
High PressureSodiumHal
CFL
32W T8
28W T8
25W T8
57% LED Sales by 2020
Technology 2015 2020
25W T8 1.4% 0.5% 28W T8 6.3% 3.3% 32W T8 40.5% 21.5% CFL 3.5% 1.0% Hal 3.6% 1.9% High Pressure Sodium 0.7% 0.4% Inc 7.0% 1.7% LED Lamp 6.7% 12.9% LED Luminaire 4.8% 16.7% Mercury Vapor 0.0% 0.0% Metal Halide 2.1% 0.5% Pin CFL 8.1% 5.1% T12 6.5% 2.2% T5HO 4.6% 3.8% T5SO 1.3% 0.7% TLED 3.0% 27.8%
LED Stock Grows Quickly
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2,015 2,016 2,017 2,018 2,019 2,020
TLEDT5SOT5HOT12Pin CFLMetal HalideMercury VaporLED LuminaireLED LampIncHigh Pressure SodiumHalCFL32W T828W T825W T8
43% LED Stock by 2020
Technology 2015 2020
25W T8 2.2% 1.1% 28W T8 6.0% 5.2% 32W T8 47.4% 33.9% CFL 4.2% 0.8% Hal 1.1% 0.4% High Pressure Sodium 1.4% 0.5% Inc 1.8% 0.3% LED Lamp 6.3% 12.7% LED Luminaire 2.3% 13.6% Mercury Vapor 0.1% 0.0% Metal Halide 3.3% 1.0% Pin CFL 6.5% 4.1% T12 8.7% 3.4% T5HO 5.2% 5.0% T5SO 2.3% 1.4% TLED 1.1% 16.5%
JESSICA AIONA
BONNIE WATSON
ETHAN MANTHEY
16
TIMELINES
17
Lighting
Outdoor Lighting Stock Assessment (Planning Phase)
Kicked Off June 29
Data Collection Protocols Dec.-Jan. ’18 RTF Market Analysis Subcommittee Mar. ‘18 Outline of Research Approach Apr. ‘18
18
Lighting
Distributor Sales Data
In Contracting Kick Off in October
Engage Distributors Jan. - Apr. ’18 Data by July ’18
Res Lighting Model RBSA
Calibration and Capacity Integration
Scoping Fall-Jan. '18 Updating model Jan.-May/June '18 Complete June '18
19
HVAC
HVAC Market Intelligence Study
Kicked Off August 1 Technology Guide Nov. ’17 Expert Interviews Sept.–Oct. ‘17 AHR HVAC Trade Show Mar. ’18 NEEA Distributor Sales Data
Kicked Off Engaging with distributors Oct.-Nov. ’17 Sales Data Results Q1, ‘18
20
HVAC
Res HVAC Model Development
Planned to Kick Off in in October Model Method – Nov. ‘17 RTF Subcommittee – TBD Model Sprints – Dec. ‘17- Ongoing
Res HVAC Baseline Study Planning
Contract This Fall Research Plan – Early ‘18 Field Data Collection Protocol – Early ‘18
21
Data Centers
Market Intelligence and Scoping
Study Kick Off September 8 Review Existing Sources Sept. - Oct. ’18 Expert Interviews Dec. - Jan. ‘18 Model Scope & Method Apr. ‘18
Hot Water
Model Scoping
Kicked Off August 16
Model Inputs Research – Sept. ‘17 Methodology Working Session – Oct. ’17 RTF Subcommittee – Nov. ‘17 Model Method – Jan. ’18
Model Development
Contract this Fall
BONNIE WATSON
Deep Dive:
Hot Water Model
Scoping
WHY WE CARE
market shifts
high energy
use
savings potential
THE ULTIMATE GOAL
Understand how
total energy consumption
for residential hot water
is changing over time, and
estimate momentum savings
for the 7th Power Plan.
HOW WE GET THERE
1. Begin exploration of building a full-market
residential consumption model for the 7th
Power Plan time period
2. Figure out what data is available to us now
3. Assess data gaps
4. Develop plan for moving forward
THE TASKS Task 1. Model Inputs Research (September)
Review existing sources • 7th Power Plan, RTF workbooks, BPA and regional
program data, RBSA, others
Determine magnitude of potential momentum savings over the 7th Plan period
THE TASKS Task 2. Working Session (October)
Explore options to answer the questions in BPA’s four-question framework: • Question 1: What is the market? • Question 2: How big is the market? • Question 3: What are the total market savings? • Question 4: What are the program savings? Essentially – how do we think we are going to determine momentum savings for this market?
THE TASKS Task 3. RTF Market Analysis Subcommittee
(November)
We want input, review, and guidance • High level approach • Methodological questions
We very much value stakeholder SME review and feedback
THE TASKS Task 4. Model Scope and Method (January)
Builds off previous tasks, roadmap of where we are going. Documents the approach and calls out next steps (e.g., filling data gaps) Deliverable: written memo
NEXT PHASE
The next phase is to begin building out a hot water full market consumption model (Beginning in January)
THX!
See you October 4th!
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