noaa’s storm surge roadmap: a coordinated approach for transitioning research to operations j....
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NOAA’s Storm Surge Roadmap: a Coordinated Approach for Transitioning Research to
Operations
J. Feyen, M. Erickson, J. Rhome, M. Weaks and A. Taylor
with NOAA’s Storm Surge Action and Planning Team
64th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference 1
Overview
• Why a NOAA Roadmap for Storm Surge?
• Purpose of the Roadmap
• Overview of the Roadmap
• Coordinating with our partners– Interagency Working Group
The Imperative
• Increasing Risks– Increasing coastal populations and sea level
rise require more deliberate planning
• Increasing Demand– Decision makers require fine-scale local
information that communicates risk clearly
• Improving Science & Technology – Surge modeling, the social science of
decision making, information technology
• NOAA Must Collaborate– Partner to organize and lead state of the art
research and development while making best use of resources
Vision for NOAA’s Storm Surge Enterprise
• Highly accurate, relevant and timely storm induced coastal inundation information, clearly communicated, which results in significant reductions in loss of life and ensures all coastal communities are optimally resistant and resilient to inundation impacts
– Drive community planning to reduce risk to life and property– Train and educate population to respond to threats appropriately– Infuse state of the art science and technology to refine risk
assessment and reduce unnecessary evacuations– Communicate street level impacts that result in appropriate
personal and community response before, during and after the events
The Bottom Line
Customers Ask:• How much water?• Where will it go? How close
to my house?• When will it arrive, and how
fast? When will it recede?• What is the impact on
structures & ecosystem?• How often will it occur?• How should I respond?
NOAA Must Provide:• Total Water Level (TWL)• Inundation depth
products at street level• Actionable information to
promote resilient and resistant risk-wise behavior
Goals of the Roadmap
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• Total Water Level: Produce water level analyses, forecasts, observations, and products that include:– pre-storm forerunner, surge, tides, waves, fresh water
inflow, speed, impact
• Inundation: Provide information about the water depth over the land (inundation) to street level resolution
• Communication Actionable Information: Deliver information that people act on – understandable, consistent information available in multiple
formats– uncertainty, supports risk assessments, provides impact
information, includes scenarios
Purpose of the Roadmap
• Shows us our starting point and where we want to arrive
• Effective approach to long-range planning; shows a path to the future
• Effective for communicating and engaging across the agency, and with our partners
• Bottom line: first-ever comprehensive effort to holistically address rapidly expanding problem and establish a community approach
Roadmap Structure
Program/Portfolio Manager NOAA PM for Storm Surge
Storm Surge Action and Planning TeamPM, Office representatives
NWS: Field, OCWWS, OH, NCEP, OST
NOS: OCS, CSC, CO-OPS, IOOS, OCRM; OAR - NSSL
Inte
r-ag
ency
, Nati
onal
Coa
stal
Com
mun
ity
Org
aniz
ation
s
Executive Steering Team Office Directors from NOS, NWS
(D. Berchoff, M. Davidson, Z. Willis)
3 Phase Approach
9
Phase II (3-5 yrs)Research and develop new approaches; evaluate for
transition to operations
Phase I (0-2 yrs)Consensus building and quick wins to improve our
products today; lay groundwork for longer term
Phase III (6-10 yrs)Implementation of new products and services
within operations
Co
ntin
ual
Refin
emen
t
Phase 1 Implementation Plan Summary
• What do we deliver in Phase 1?– Move closer to TWL and improve operations
• SLOSH with tides, extratropical ADCIRC (surge+tides), test ensembling
– Improve access for customers • central website, social science studies, recovery best
practices
– Leverage community • grid catalogue, SDP NetCDF support, super-regional test
bed
– Prepare for future• NWS Surge Team, next gen modeling framework,
forecast validation method
Coordinating at the Federal Level
• Interagency Working Group (IWG)– under the auspices of the President’s National Science
and Technology Council/Committee of Environment and Natural Resources/Subcommittee on Disaster Reduction (SDR)
• Why SDR?– Facilitates U.S. Government and private/academic
activities to reduce vulnerability to natural hazards
– SDR already developed priority science and technology interagency actions for coastal inundation
• Who?– NOAA, USACE, FEMA, USGS, DOT, DOE, NSF, EPA
IWG Purpose
• Evaluate agencies’ coastal inundation research, data, and plans (underway)
• Establish clear interagency roles and set priorities
• Coordinate agency priorities, planning, and budget processes
• Serve as the primary channel for communicating collective expertise and fostering sound policy
• Bottom line: highly-visible/influential group tasked with advancing storm surge
12
Roadmap Summary
• Intra-agency planning and coordination tool• Goals
– Total Water Level
– Inundation products
– Communication of actionable information
• Coordinates with partners on research and development– Federal alignment within IWG
• You can inform us about users’ requirements; provide feedback, ideas, and support
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