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New York State Energy Planning Board

New York State Transmission and Distribution System Reliability Study

Patrick Curran, NYISO

Erin Hogan, NYSERDA

Michael Worden, DPS

June 4, 2012

2

Introduction and Overview

Transmission System Reliability

Distribution Reliability

Investment and Expenditures

Environmental Regulations

T&D Reliability Impacts from Policy

Future T&D Reliability Issues

Key Findings and Recommendations

T&D Reliability Study Highlights

2

Overview of The Electric System

4

Fundamental Reliability Principle

4

Generation

5

New York State Generation

5 Source: NYISO, 2012

6

New York State High Voltage Transmission

6 Source: NYISO, 2012

HVDC

7

New York Transmission Owner Service Areas

7 Source: DPS, 2012

8

Historical Load Growth By Aggregated Wholesale Energy Load Zone

8

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

MW

H

Zones A-E Zones F-I Zones J-K

Transmission System Reliability

10

Reliability Oversight

10

FERC

NYISO Market

Participants Transmission

Owners

NPCC

NYSRC PSC

NERC

11

NERC Interconnections

11 Source: NERC, 2012

12

Planning Metrics

– Resource Adequacy

• Loss of Load Expectation

• 1 in 10 years

– System Security Analysis or Operation Reliability

• N-1; N-1-1

Operations Metrics

– Uncontrolled Loss of Load Event

Transmission Reliability Metrics

12

13

Transmission System Planning

NYISO – Area Transmission Review

– Comprehensive System Planning Process • Local Transmission Planning Process

• Reliability Needs Assessment

• Comprehensive Reliability Plan

• Congestion Assessment and Resource Integration Study

Regional and Interregional – EIPC

– Northeast Coordinated Plan

– Eastern Interconnection Assessment Group

– NPCC Overall Transmission Assessment

– NERC 2011 Long-Term Reliability Assessment

14

Transmission System Operations

Seasonal Operating Studies – Assesses transfer limits on key interface

Day Ahead Operating Plan – Security Constrained Unit Commitment

Real Time Operations – Real Time Commitment and Dispatch

System Operating States – Normal

– Warning

– Alert

– Major Emergency

– Restoration

15

NERC

– 2011 Long-Term Reliability Assessment

– 2011 Risk Assessment of Reliability Performance Report

2010 Comprehensive Reliability Plan

– No reliability violations identified in base case

– Risks identified in sensitivities

State Transmission Assessment and Reliability Study

– Aging infrastructure

– Opportunities to increase transfer capacity

Reliability Issues Identified in Planning Studies

15

16

New York State Transmission Assessment and Reliability Study

16 Source: STARS, 2012

Distribution System Reliability

18

Annual Reliability Report

Reliability Improvements

Power Quality Issues

Electric Utility Emergency Plans

Storm Mitigation

Distribution Reliability

18

19

Distribution Reliability Metrics

19

Customer Average Interruption Duration Index

(CAIDI)

Number of Customer Hours/ Number of Customers Affected

System Average Interruption Frequency Index

(SAIFI)

Number of Customer Affected/Number of Customers Served

20

Distribution Performance

20

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

NYS CAIDI For Radial and Network

Radial With Storms Radial W/O Storms Network

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

NYS SAIFI For Radial and Network

Radial With Storms Radial W/O Storms Network

Draft Draft

Note: 2011 Values are draft, does not include LIPA outage data from Hurricane Irene

21

Causes of Distribution Interruptions

21

Tree 27%

Overload 3%

Error 0%

Equipment 40%

Accident 13%

Prearranged

14%

Cust Equip

1%

Lightning 5%

Unknown 8%

Radial Interruptions

Services 81%

Mains 7%

Equipment 7%

Accident 1%

Prearranged 0%

Cust Equip

4%

Network Interruptions

22

Number of Customer-Hour Interruptions

22

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

80,000,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Major Storm Related Outages Draft

Note: 2011 Values are draft, does not include LIPA outage data from Hurricane Irene

Investment and Expenditures

24

Utility Capital Expenditure ($000s)

24

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

Actual

Plan

25

Electric O&M Expenses ($000s)

25

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Trans

Dist

Environmental Regulations

27

Environmental Regulations

Existing Rules

– NOx RACT Rule

– Best Available Retrofit Technology (BART) Rule

– Utility MACT Rule

– Best Technology Available (BTA) Policy

New and Future Rules

– Cross-State Air Pollution Rule

– Cooling Water Intake Structures

– Coal Combustion Residuals

– CO2 Emission Allowance

Impacts to Reliability

29

Reliability Impacts From Policies

Load – Energy Efficiency

– Large Load Growth

– Other Load Varying Mechanisms

Generation – Renewable Portfolio Standard

– Distributed Generation

Transmission & Distribution – Bulk Electric System Definition

– Performance Rate Making, Multi-Year Rate Agreements, and other Departures from Traditional Regulatory Mechanisms

Regulatory – Corporate Reorganization of Electric Utilities

Generation

• Retirements •Environmental

Initiatives

•Nuclear Relicensing

•Market Conditions

• Results • Fuel Mix

Issues/Diversity of Supply

Load

• Variations

30

Possible Future Reliability Issues

30

• Smart Grid and Emerging Technologies

•Electric Vehicles

• Results •Transition for both

technology & process poses challenges

• Implemented correctly could optimize asset utilization & operational efficiency

External Forces

• Sources • Security Threats

•Geomagnetic Disturbances

•Aging Workforce

• Issues •Risks known and

estimated

•Mitigation measures developed

•Effectiveness unknown

T&D

• Aging Infrastructure •2,300 miles over next

10 yrs nearing design life

•1,200 additional miles in next 10-20 years

• Results • Increases maintenance

and downtime

• Increases risk from unavailability

31

Preliminary Findings and Recommendations

As assessed using existing metrics, the electric system generally appears to be reliable

Allow system planners and operators flexibility when developing policies

Support cost-effective replacement of aging infrastructure

Support diverse mix of electric generation fuel sources

Monitor gas/electric interdependence

Encourage workforce development

Support distributed generation technologies

Improve storm mitigation, restoration, and communication

Questions?