ncampo meeting may 2012. 2 smz’s- 2577 mpo areas-aggregated zones rpo areas-census blocks

NC Statewide ModelDevelopment

NCSTMUpdate

NCAMPO MeetingMay 2012

2

Statewide Model Zones(SMZs)

SMZ’s- 2577

MPO Areas-Aggregated ZonesRPO Areas-Census Blocks

3

National Model Zones (NMZs)

317 NMZs

Total of 2894 NCSTM Zones

NCSTM Networks

Links162K Total102K in NC

Centroid Connectors-10,000

Household Data

5

PopulationHousehold Population

HouseholdsGroup QuartersAve HH Income

WorkersMilitary Group Quarters

2010 Census DataWoods & Poole Adjustments

6

NCSTM Employment

  % of Employment

Industrial 14.22%

High Industrial 9.33%

Retail 13.04%

High Retail 10.83%

Service 22.68%

Office 13.88%

Gov't 6.93%

Education 7.11%

Hospital 1.97%

Sources• INFOUSA • Woods & Poole• Employment Security Commission

7

Model Overview

National ModelStatewide Model

Socio-Economic Data

Trip Generation

Destination Choice

Mode Choice

Trip Generation

Trip Distribution

Multi-class Assignment

Disaggregation

TrucksTrips

Person Trips

Flow Extraction

EI/IE/EE trips

EI/IE/EE trips

II trips II trips

Trip Extraction

NHTS Long-Distance

NHTS Add-on Sample NC

Triangle truck survey FAF3

Disaggregation

TRIP GENERATION

8

Trip Generation DesignClassification• Four Household Sizes – 1,2,3,4+• Five Income Classifications

< $20,000$20,000-$35,000$35,000-$55,000$55,000-$80,000>$80,000

• Three Area Types- – Urban, Suburban, Rural

• Three North Carolina Regions

9

NCSTM Regions

Trip PurposesFive Trip Purposes Defined

– Home-Based Work (by five income classes)

– Home-Based Other– Home-Based Shop– Non-Home Based (places other than

work)– Non-Home Based Work (from Work sites)

11

Productions & Attractions

12

% Productions of Total - all purposes

Estimated Observed

HBO 39% 40%HBS 15% 14%HBW 17% 17%NHB 17% 17%

NHBW 12% 11%Estimate/Observed  HBWTotal HBO HBS NHBAW NHB SUM

1 1.37 0.94 0.94 1.49 0.77 1.002 1.09 1.13 0.97 1.19 1.00 1.083 1.17 1.32 1.21 1.56 1.85 1.374 1.19 1.01 0.95 1.16 0.90 1.025 1.62 0.92 1.11 1.24 1.13 1.106 2.48 1.52 0.97 1.58 0.79 1.317 2.43 0.63 0.87 0.47 0.10 0.408 1.61 1.03 0.83 1.55 0.52 0.949 0.70 1.69 1.74 2.70 2.04 1.45

10 0.71 1.24 1.41 0.77 1.02 1.0111 1.40 0.79 0.85 1.60 0.53 0.8612 1.78 0.77 1.10 2.65 0.96 1.0413 1.15 1.14 0.95 2.19 0.94 1.1414 1.21 1.12 1.39 1.62 0.57 1.0715 0.67 1.05 0.78 1.05 0.70 0.8516 1.28 1.10 0.89 1.17 0.88 1.0617 0.79 1.13 1.14 0.79 0.97 0.9718 1.11 1.39 1.19 2.21 1.09 1.2919 1.17 1.28 1.38 1.29 1.17 1.2620 1.46 1.09 0.87 1.05 0.75 1.0121 0.86 1.20 1.00 1.38 1.15 1.09

Sum 1.24 1.08 1.07 1.34 0.91 1.10

MPO Comparison

13

NCSTM Productions and Attractions by MPO    

Actual Urban Model Values  

NCSTM vs Urban Model  

MPO Productions HHs P's /HH Productions P's/HH Prod % Diff

Asheville                     1,541,546  183624 8.4 1,577,418 8.6 -35,872 -2.27%

Fayetteville                     1,216,837  131461 9.3 1,066,200 8.1 150,637 14.13%

Goldsboro                         292,643  35523 8.2 259,087 7.3 33,556 12.95%

Greenville                         480,704  56196 8.6 494,047 8.8 -13,343 -2.70%

Hickory                     1,045,698  118837 8.8     NA

Jacksonville                         427,436  41010 10.4 320,079 7.8 107,357 33.54%

Metrolina                     7,063,424  723684 9.8 7,496,296 10.4 -432,872 -5.77%

Rocky Mount                         298,935  34640 8.6 310,755 9.0 -11,819 -3.80%

Triad                     4,151,305  453265 9.2 4,020,902 8.9 130,402 3.24%

Triangle                     6,002,469  616515 9.7 6,003,424 9.7 -956 -0.02%

Wilmington                         897,722  101430 8.9 758,061 7.5 139,660 18.42%

Trip Generation

Region   HBW HBO HBS NHBAW NHB SUM1 Eastern 1.15 1.10 0.98 1.34 0.60 0.992 Piedmont 1.40 1.11 1.19 1.41 1.20 1.213 Mountains 0.96 0.95 0.91 1.15 0.81 0.94

TRIP DISTRIBUTION(DESTINATION CHOICE)

hbw1 = (1*[Retail Employees]+1.292*[High Retail Employees]+0.541*[Office Employees]+0.888*[Service Employees]+0.425*[Government Employees]+0.678*[Education Employees]+0.415*[Hospital Employees]+0.425*[Military Employees]+0.685*[Industrial Employees]+0.599*[High Industrial Employees]) * exp(0.8+0.081*GeneralizedCost+-0.1*Distance+0.001*Distance2))+DistanceK

17

Model Results - HBW

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08HBW Location Choice TLFD

Survey - HBW Model - HBWDistance

Norm

alized F

requency

Survey Avg Distance

Model Avg Distance

Coincidence Index

12.49 11.40 .83

18

Model Results - HBO

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

HBO Location Choice TLFD

Survey - HBO Model - HBODistance

Norm

alized F

requency

Survey Avg Distance

Model Avg Distance

Coincidence Index

7.34 7.23 .86

LONG DISTANCE AUTO

20

Person Long-Distance Travel

EI

IE

II EE

Regional Hospitals

Data collected by IEM

Number of Hotel Rooms

Daily visitors to parks

LONG DISTANCE TRUCKS

Concept of National Truck Model

Freight flows between 3,241 counties

FAF3 data

County Employment

Freight flows NCSTM Zones

NC Zonal Employment

Payload factors

Truck trip O/D matrix

25

Empty-Truck Rate

Truck trip O/D matrix with empty trucks

Distribution Centers

26

Distribution CenterTruck

Intermodal FacilityAir/Rail/Water

Distribution Centers & Intermodal Facilities

27Data collected by IEM

Port of Morehead City

Port of Wilmington

RDUGSO

CLT

SHORT DISTANCE TRUCKS

Trip Production Rate Comparison

2/1/2012

NCSTM-TRC Meeting

29

TRUCKCLASS EMPLOYMENT TYPE GTR TRIP RATE QRFM TRIP RATE DIFFERENCEAUTO Gov 0.143 (474) 0.437 -67%

High Industrial 0.381 (423) 0.938 -59% Industrial 0.105 (114) 0.938 -89% Office 0.168 (396) 0.437 -62% Retail 0.143 (757) 0.888 -84% Service 0.486 (998) 0.437 11%

SUT Gov 0.105 (325) 0.068 54%  High Industrial 0.272 (304) 0.242 12%  Industrial 0.158 (148) 0.242 -35%  Office 0.477 (187) 0.068 601%  Retail 0.112 (559) 0.253 -56%  Service 0.379 (780) 0.068 457%

MUT Industrial 0.272 (320) 0.104 162% Service 0.411 (266) 0.009 4467%

Model vs Count Validation Comparison (cont.)

GTR Total Trucks QRFM Total Trucks

Average Trip Length

MULTI-UNIT TRUCK (V-TYPE 8-13)

SINGLE-UNIT TRUCK (VTYPE 5-7)

Modeled 11.0807179924259 9.60096005856897

Count 11.0844686648501 9.7111111111111

8.75

9.25

9.75

10.25

10.75

11.25

Average Trip Length

Miles

MODE CHOICE

Mode Choice Modeling in NCSTM

• In urban regions, transit share is based on MPO/Regional models. Activity density is used to allocate transit share to NCSTM zones

• Between urban areas, r3logit models mode choice explicitly.

MPO/Regional Model Transit Share

Fayetteville

Raleigh

Charlotte

Winston-Salem

Greensboro

Nested Model Structure of r3logit

Person Trip

Auto Transit

Drive-Alone

HOV2 HOV3 HOV4+ Bus Rail Air

r3logit Model Concept• Model applied for long-distance trips

> 50 miles• Transit access is assumed to be

drive-access only (Who walks to the airport?)

• Variables that drive r3logit:Auto Transit

Auto travel time Auto access travel timeAuto egress travel time

Auto travel distanceBoarding time (incl. security check)

Transit fare

Auto operating costs Transit travel time

Auto egress time Number of transfers

Parking cost (currently set to 0)

Deboarding time (incl. baggage claim)

INITIAL RESULTS

Screenlines# TOTAL AUTO MUT SUT1 Wilmington 0.47 0.44 1.08 0.402 Fay North 1.06 1.05 1.29 0.943 Morehead City 0.83 0.79 1.37 0.664 Raleigh East 0.80 0.77 1.49 0.765 95 Upper 1.19 1.23 0.95 1.546 95 Lower 1.38 1.49 0.96 0.967 Outer Banks 1.01 1.05 0.82 0.32

8Central EW

Upper 1.22 1.21 1.46 1.019 Triad West 1.35 1.36 1.28 1.2510 Asheville East 0.96 0.90 1.53 1.0611 Charlotte North 1.00 1.02 1.04 0.5812 NC Upper 77/52 0.99 0.98 1.04 1.0113 Triad North 1.00 1.05 0.78 0.4214 Charlotte South 1.22 1.26 1.00 0.4615 Triad South 1.92 2.22 0.64 0.57

5/3/2012

Total Screenlines

1 Wilmington2 Fay North3 Morehead City4 Raleigh East5 95 Upper6 95 Lower7 Outer Banks8 Central EW Upper9 Triad West

10 Asheville East11 Charlotte North12 NC Upper 77/5213 Triad North14 Charlotte South15 Triad South

40

Absolute Screenlines

1 Wilmington2 Fay North3 Morehead City4 Raleigh East5 95 Upper6 95 Lower7 Outer Banks8 Central EW Upper9 Triad West

10 Asheville East11 Charlotte North12 NC Upper 77/5213 Triad North14 Charlotte South15 Triad South

Auto Screenlines

6 ModelsOhio

OregonMaryland

Other Statewide Models

Districts

Example District

45

Schedule

• Calibration Adjustments• Mid-June

• Future Year Coding • End of summer

MODEL INTERFACE

NCSTM Interface Status

472/1/2012

• Can Run All Steps, Stages (groups of steps), or Individual Steps

NCSTM Interface Status

482/1/2012

• “Reports” button for each step provides results from each step – such as district-district trips or VMT by County

Report Examples

492/1/2012

District-District Home-Based Shopping Trips

Productions and Attractions summed to MPO Model Areas

Report Examples

502/1/2012

Vehicle-Miles Traveled, Vehicle-Hours Traveled, and other information by Selected

Summary Levels

COUNTY FAC_TYPE VMT VHT Ave V/C

001 12,105,50

7 64,173 1.02001 3 351,499 18,027 0.81

001 41,558,16

7 50,573 1.07001 5 779,069 23,377 0.87001 6 35,888 899 0.79001 7 11,132 267 0.44001 51 118,173 2,835 1.15001 54 118 3 0.09001 98 760,779 20,160 0.09003 4 899,210 35,471 1.31003 5 195,471 10,837 1.78003 54 1,485 31 0.65003 98 309,647 7,319 0.09005 4 223,689 8,835 0.88005 5 660,536 25,068 0.83005 98 98,180 2,590 0.03007 3 694,467 30,671 0.73007 4 309,461 10,629 1.17

007 51,021,81

3 30,976 1.08007 7 5,393 166 0.93007 98 198,911 4,846 0.03009 4 338,289 11,823 0.91

009 51,024,50

6 48,941 0.81009 7 380 17 0.66009 98 310,937 6,892 0.05

Scenario Manager

512/1/2012