nationwide survey of 3,000 likely voters*: the … · nationwide survey of 3,000 likely voters,...

NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS*: The Standard Poll

MARCH 26-APRIL 1, 2016

*Likely Voters = Registered Voters with Biometrics and Sure to Vote in the May 2016 Elections

NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016

SAMPLE SIZES, ERROR MARGINS AND SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION

2

AREA SAMPLE SIZE

ERROR MARGINS

NO. OF PROVINCES

NO. OF HIGHLY

URBANIZED CITIES

NO. OF MUNICI

PALITIES/ CITIES

NO. OF BARANGAYS

PHILIPPINES 3000 ±1.8% 79 40 270 600NCR 300 ±6% 17 17 60NORTH/CENTRAL LUZON 700 ±4% 21 5 61 140

CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGIONS (CAR) 100 ±10% 6 1 10 20ILOCOS (REGION1) 200 ±7% 4 1 20 40

CAGAYAN VALLEY (REGION2) 100 ±10% 4 1 10 20

CENTRAL LUZON (REGION3) 300 ±6% 7 2 21 60

SOUTH LUZON/BICOL 700 ±4% 16 3 52 140CALABARZON (Region 4a) 400 ±5% 5 1 21 80MIMAROPA (Region 4b) 100 ±10% 5 1 11 20

BICOL (Region 5) 200 ±7% 6 1 20 40

VISAYAS 600 ±4% 16 7 70 120WESTERN VISAYAS (Region 6) 150 ±8% 5 1 15 30

NEGROS ISLAND REGION (NIR) 100 ±10% 2 1 14 20CENTRAL VISAYAS (Region 7) 200 ±7% 3 3 24 40

EASTERN VISAYAS (Region 8) 150 ±8% 6 2 17 30

MINDANAO 700 ±4% 26 8 70 140ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA (Region 9) 100 ±10% 3 2 10 20NORTHERN MINDANAO (Region 10) 150 ±8% 5 2 15 30

DAVAO REGION (Region 11) 150 ±8% 5 1 10 30

SOCCSKSARGEN (Region 12) 100 ±10% 4 2 15 20CARAGA (Region 13) 100 ±10% 4 1 10 20

AUTONOMOUS REGION OF MUSLIM MINDANAO (ARMM) 100 ±10% 5 0 10 20

NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016

VOTER PREFERENCE

FOR PRESIDENT

3

NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016

Voter Preference for President: Philippines

4

29%$26%$ 27%$

20%$

24%$

30%$

22%$ 23%$

18%$

22%$ 22%$ 21%$

2%$ 2%$ 2%$

4%$ 4%$2%$

0%#

5%#

10%#

15%#

20%#

25%#

30%#

35%#

40%#

45%#

50%#

Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#

Poe Duterte Binay Roxas Santiago Undecided

NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016

Voter Preference for President: Ranking

5

TOTAL PHILIPPINES RANK PH Vote Share

Lower Limit

Upper Limit

Margin of Error

3. DUTERTE, Rody (PDPLBN) 1-2 30% 28% 32% 1.64%

4. POE, Grace (IND) 1-2 27% 25% 29% 1.59%

5. ROXAS, Mar Daang Matuwid (LP) 3 21% 20% 23% 1.46%

1. BINAY, Jojo (UNA) 4 18% 17% 19% 1.37%

2. DEFENSOR-SANTIAGO, Miriam (PRP) 5 2% 2% 3% 0.50%

Population (N) = 54,363,844; 95% Confidence level (z-1.96); Sample size (n) =3000

NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016

Voter Preference for President: NCR

6

35%$

28%$ 30%$

22%$ 23%$

30%$

22%$

28%$

23%$

10%$12%$ 11%$

5%$ 4%$2%$

6%$ 4%$ 4%$

0%#

5%#

10%#

15%#

20%#

25%#

30%#

35%#

40%#

45%#

50%#

Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#

Poe Duterte Binay Roxas Santiago Undecided

NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016

Voter Preference for President: North & Central Luzon

7

37%$34%$ 34%$

7%$

11%$

18%$

31%$33%$

28%$

17%$ 16%$ 16%$

3%$ 3%$3%$4%$ 4%$

1%$0%#

5%#

10%#

15%#

20%#

25%#

30%#

35%#

40%#

45%#

50%#

Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#

Poe Duterte Binay Roxas Santiago Undecided

NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016

Voter Preference for President: North & Central Luzon Regions

Feb2016

Mar2016

Feb2016

Mar2016

Feb2016

Mar2016

Feb2016

Mar2016

Feb2016

Mar2016 1%

6%

4%

4%

2%

3%

1%

4%

3%

2%

1%

1%

4%

4%

8%

7%

3%

3%

20%

26%

50%

62%

29%

30%

28%

32%

28%

33%

18%

20%

11%

6%

15%

16%

16%

11%

16%

16%

36%

34%

25%

20%

38%

40%

31%

39%

34%

34%

23%

13%

13%

7%

11%

11%

15%

8%

18%

11%

Duterte Poe RoxasBinay Santiago Undecided

8

NORTH & CENTRAL LUZON

CORDILLERA ADMIN REGION (CAR)

ILOCOS (Region1)

CAGAYAN VALLEY (Region2)

CENTRAL LUZON (Region3)

NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016

Voter Preference for President: South Luzon & Bicol

9

38%$

32%$

39%$

12%$ 14%$

19%$

23%$

27%$

18%$

21%$ 21%$ 21%$

1%$ 2%$ 1%$

5%$ 4%$2%$

0%#

5%#

10%#

15%#

20%#

25%#

30%#

35%#

40%#

45%#

50%#

Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#

Poe Duterte Binay Roxas Santiago Undecided

NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016

Voter Preference for President: South Luzon & Bicol Regions

Feb2016

Mar2016

Feb2016

Mar2016

Feb2016

Mar2016

Feb2016

Mar2016 2%

8%

1%

3%

3%

2%

4%

2%

3%

1%

1%

3%

1%

2%

15%

18%

12%

18%

21%

33%

18%

27%

35%

34%

32%

21%

12%

15%

21%

21%

37%

31%

33%

31%

41%

33%

39%

32%

9%

7%

20%

28%

22%

13%

19%

14%

Duterte Poe RoxasBinay Santiago Undecided

10

SOUTH LUZON & BICOL

CALABARZON (Region 4a)

MIMAROPA (Region 4b)

BICOL (Region 5)

NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016

Voter Preference for President: Visayas

11

23%$

18%$ 18%$17%$

23%$

31%$

18%$ 17%$

13%$

35%$36%$

35%$

2%$ 2%$ 2%$

5%$ 4%$2%$

0%#

5%#

10%#

15%#

20%#

25%#

30%#

35%#

40%#

45%#

50%#

Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#

Poe Duterte Binay Roxas Santiago Undecided

NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016

Voter Preference for President: Visayas Regions

Feb2016

Mar2016

Feb2016

Mar2016

Feb2016

Mar2016

Feb2016

Mar2016

Feb2016

Mar2016

2%

2%

5%

6%

8%

1%

2%

4%

4%

1%

1%

3%

2%

4%

3%

2%

2%

33%

27%

4%

14%

7%

13%

9%

15%

13%

17%

14%

25%

27%

28%

42%

45%

60%

51%

35%

36%

18%

23%

10%

12%

31%

16%

15%

24%

18%

18%

35%

19%

55%

40%

17%

18%

4%

7%

31%

23%

Duterte Poe RoxasBinay Santiago Undecided

12

VISAYAS

WESTERN VISAYAS (Region 6)

NEGROS ISLAND REGION (NIR)

CENTRAL VISAYAS (Region 7)

EASTERN VISAYAS (Region 8)

NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016

Voter Preference for President: Mindanao

13

17%$ 17%$

13%$

44%$

49%$

53%$

16%$

11%$ 11%$

20%$ 20%$ 20%$

1%$ 1%$ 1%$0%$2%$ 3%$

0%#

10%#

20%#

30%#

40%#

50%#

60%#

Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#

Poe Duterte Binay Roxas Santiago Undecided

NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016

Voter Preference for President: Mindanao Regions

Feb2016

Mar2016

Feb2016

Mar2016

Feb2016

Mar2016

Feb2016

Mar2016

Feb2016

Mar2016

Feb2016

Mar2016

Feb2016

Mar2016 1%

4%

2%

10%

1%

1%

2%

3%

2%

1%

3%

2%

2%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

27%

16%

6%

8%

9%

17%

3%

2%

11%

9%

16%

20%

11%

11%

23%

15%

30%

19%

13%

21%

5%

11%

23%

29%

31%

23%

20%

20%

14%

20%

5%

27%

4%

13%

5%

6%

20%

16%

31%

25%

13%

17%

35%

45%

57%

43%

63%

47%

85%

79%

43%

43%

21%

30%

53%

49%

Duterte Poe RoxasBinay Santiago Undecided

14

MINDANAO

ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA (Region 9)

NORTHERN MINDANAO (Region 10)

DAVAO REGION (Region 11)

SOCCSKSARGEN (Region 12)

CARAGA (Region 13)

ARMM

NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016

Voter Preference for President: Urban

15

35%$

27%$ 29%$

21%$24%$

33%$

22%$

24%$

18%$

15%$

18%$

16%$

3%$ 4%$2%$

4%$ 3%$ 3%$

0%#

5%#

10%#

15%#

20%#

25%#

30%#

35%#

40%#

45%#

50%#

Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#

Poe Duterte Binay Roxas Santiago Undecided

NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016

Voter Preference for President: Rural

16

25%$ 24%$ 25%$

20%$

25%$28%$

22%$22%$

18%$

27%$ 25%$25%$

2%$ 3%$2%$

4%$

1%$ 2%$

0%#

5%#

10%#

15%#

20%#

25%#

30%#

35%#

40%#

45%#

50%#

Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#

Poe Duterte Binay Roxas Santiago Undecided

NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016

Voter Preference for President: Classes ABC

17

30%$

21%$21%$

27%$30%$

37%$

20%$

21%$21%$

15%$ 16%$ 19%$

2%$4%$

1%$

6%$8%$

3%$

0%#

5%#

10%#

15%#

20%#

25%#

30%#

35%#

40%#

45%#

50%#

Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#

Poe Duterte Binay Roxas Santiago Undecided

NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016

Voter Preference for President: Class D

18

30%$26%$ 26%$

18%$

24%$

30%$

22%$23%$

18%$

22%$22%$

22%$

3%$ 2%$ 2%$

4%$ 3%$ 2%$

0%#

5%#

10%#

15%#

20%#

25%#

30%#

35%#

40%#

45%#

50%#

Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#

Poe Duterte Binay Roxas Santiago Undecided

NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016

Voter Preference for President: Class E

19

27%$ 26%$29%$

22%$23%$

29%$

23%$22%$

18%$

23%$ 23%$

20%$

1%$ 1%$

3%$3%$4%$

1%$0%#

5%#

10%#

15%#

20%#

25%#

30%#

35%#

40%#

45%#

50%#

Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#

Poe Duterte Binay Roxas Santiago Undecided

NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016

Voter Preference for President: Males

20

27%$

22%$

24%$23%$

27%$

34%$

24%$ 24%$

18%$21%$

21%$20%$

2%$ 2%$ 1%$

4%$ 4%$2%$

0%#

5%#

10%#

15%#

20%#

25%#

30%#

35%#

40%#

45%#

50%#

Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#

Poe Duterte Binay Roxas Santiago Undecided

NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016

Voter Preference for President: Females

21

32%$29%$

29%$

18%$21%$

26%$

20%$

22%$

18%$

23%$ 22%$ 22%$

3%$ 2%$3%$

4%$ 3%$2%$

0%#

5%#

10%#

15%#

20%#

25%#

30%#

35%#

40%#

45%#

50%#

Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#

Poe Duterte Binay Roxas Santiago Undecided

NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016

Voter Preference for President: 18-34 years old

22

34%$

29%$ 30%$

20%$

28%$

34%$

22%$ 20%$

18%$18%$18%$

14%$

3%$ 3%$2%$

2%$ 3%$ 2%$

0%#

5%#

10%#

15%#

20%#

25%#

30%#

35%#

40%#

45%#

50%#

Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#

Poe Duterte Binay Roxas Santiago Undecided

NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016

Voter Preference for President: 35-54 years old

23

28%$24%$

25%$22%$

24%$

30%$

20%$23%$

18%$

24%$23%$

23%$

2%$ 2%$ 3%$

4%$ 4%$2%$

0%#

5%#

10%#

15%#

20%#

25%#

30%#

35%#

40%#

45%#

50%#

Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#

Poe Duterte Binay Roxas Santiago Undecided

NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016

Voter Preference for President: 55 years & older

24

25%$

23%$

25%$

18%$

20%$

25%$25%$ 26%$

18%$

24%$ 24%$

27%$

2%$ 2%$ 3%$

6%$ 5%$

2%$

0%#

5%#

10%#

15%#

20%#

25%#

30%#

35%#

40%#

45%#

50%#

Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#

Poe Duterte Binay Roxas Santiago Undecided

NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016

Voter Preference for President by Religious Affiliation

25

PH

Catholic

Iglesia ni Cristo

Born Again

Muslim

Aglipayan

Others 5%

13%

1%

5%

7%

2%

2%

3%

1%

1%

2%

2%

11%

8%

28%

20%

18%

18%

18%

19%

34%

26%

20%

13%

21%

21%

20%

33%

11%

24%

38%

27%

27%

42%

13%

33%

31%

24%

30%

30%

Duterte Poe RoxasBinay Santiago Undecided

NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016

Voter Preference for President by Ethnicity

26

PH

Tagalog

Cebuano

Ilocano

Ilonggo

Bicolano

Waray

Pangasinense

Kapampangan

Others 1%

2%

1%

3%

6%

3%

2%

2%

2%

1%

1%

1%

3%

3%

1%

3%

2%

23%

23%

23%

39%

19%

7%

32%

7%

20%

18%

23%

13%

14%

11%

29%

44%

14%

23%

14%

21%

17%

30%

49%

18%

38%

19%

32%

16%

36%

27%

35%

31%

12%

32%

11%

22%

15%

50%

25%

30%

Duterte Poe RoxasBinay Santiago Undecided