national association of state foresters & wildland fire weather by wayne mitchell california...

National Association of State Foresters & Wildland Fire Weather

by

Wayne MitchellCalifornia Department of Forestry & Fire Protection

1416 9th Street

Sacramento, CA 94244-2460

(916) 653-6031

wayne.mitchell@fire.ca.gov

Washington, D.C.January 25, 2006

NWS - 10/27/98

Objectives• Describe the State Foresters needs for the

National Fire Weather Program

• Describe Cooperative Wildland Fire Protection as it relates to Fire Weather

Local, State, National

NWS - 10/27/98

Plus many others. . .

Wildland Fire Community

NWS - 10/27/98

Wildland Fire Workload1990s Average Annual

• Number of Fires– Federal - 13,800

– State & Local - 52,400

• Acres Burned– Federal - 1,980,000

– State & Local - 874,000

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Wildland FireProgram Expenditures

$0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200

States -Preparedness & Ops

Federal -Preparedness & Ops

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Millions

* Estimated annual expenditures 1990s

*

Who Really Pays for Wildfires?

Initial Attack Major Disaster

Analysis of 1994 California fire activity

Jurisdiction and Agreementsfurther integrate responsibilities

For Example: San Diego County, CA

Public and Fire Fighter Safety Depend on Good Weather Forecasts

• Standard Fire Orders for Firefighter Safety2. “Initiate all actions based upon current and

expected fire behavior”

3. “Recognize current weather conditions and obtain forecasts”

Serving Our Public

• Anticipating of future conditions is critical – efficient resource use– public safety– fire fighter safety

• Knowledge of current and expected weather is the key to anticipating future conditions

Wildland Fire Command Structure

Area Coord.

ECC

Fire Fire Fire

ECC ECC

Area Coord. Area Coord.

N IFC

Strategic

Tactical

Who

Decisions

Where

Decisions

Remote Automatic Weather Stations

Satellite Data Delivery

An Interagency RAWS Network

National Weather Information Management System (WIMS)

Use of Fire WeatherProducts and Services

• Planning

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WIMS provides daily fire danger information

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Current Products & Services

• Alpha/Numeric Forecasts

• Graphical Products

Use of Fire WeatherProducts and Services

• Planning

• Preparedness

NWS - 10/27/98

• Alpha/Numeric Forecasts

Current Products & Services

- Fire Wx Narrative Fcsts

- Fire Wx Zone Fcsts

- Fire Danger Rating Index Fcsts

- Fire Wx Watches & Red Flag Warnings

- Transport & Stability Fcsts

- Site Specific (Spot) FcstsNWS - 10/27/98

---------------------------------------------------------------------------SOUTHEAST IDAHO AND WESTERN WYOMING(ZONES 411-417) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER...Scattered clouds this evening..then clear and cold. LAL...........1 TEMPERATURE...Lows in the teens and 20s. HUMIDITY......Good recovery valleys..moderate ridges. Max 75-95 pct valleys..and 40-60 pct ridges. WIND - 20 FT.. VALLEYS...Northeast to southeast 3-8 mph or less by dark. RIDGES....Northeast to southeast 10-20 mph. HAINES INDEX..3 Very low SMOKE DISPERSAL: MIXING HEIGHT....Lowering to 500 ft agl. TRANSPORT WIND...Northeast to southeast 5 mph. . . . .

ZCZC LAXFWFLAXTTAA00 KUCR 162211GEOGRAPHICAL AREA COMMAND CENTEROPERATIONS AND COORDINATION CENTERINTERAGENCY FIRE FORECAST AND WARNING UNITRIVERSIDE, CALIFORNIAFIRE WEATHER FORECAST1530 PDT FRIDAY OCTOBER 16, 1998

INYO/MONO

SYNOPSIS...A DEEP TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST DURING THE NEXT DAY ORSO. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN, PRODUCING A DRY NORTHERLY FLOWACROSS THE DISTRICT. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WITHDIMINISHING WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXTWEEK.*****************************************************************************NOTE: ALL WINDS ARE 20-FOOT WINDS UNLESS SPECIFIED OTHERWISE.************************** NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ********************************ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FT FROM BIG PINE NORTH TO VICINITY OF MONO LAKE. TONIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO UPPER 20S. MAXIMUM HUMIDITY 60-75%. RIDGETOP WINDS, NORTH TO NORTHEAST 10 TO15 MPH. ALONG THE SLOPES, DOWNSLOPE/DOWN CANYON 7 TO 15 MPH. SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S. MINIMUM HUMIDITY 15-25%. RIDGETOP WINDS, NORTH TO NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH. ALONGTHE SLOPES, UPSLOPE/UPCANYON 6 TO 12 MPH.LAL 1.************************ SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS *********************************ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FT FROM BIG PINE SOUTH. TONIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S. MAXIMUM HUMIDITY 60-75%. RIDGETOP WINDS, NORTH TO NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH.ALONG THE SLOPES, DOWNSLOPE/DOWNCANYON 7 TO 15 MPH. SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. MINIMUM HUMIDITY 15-25%. RIDGETOP WINDS, NORTH TO NORTHEAST 10 TO 20MPH. ALONG THE SLOPES, UPSLOPE/UPCANYON 6 TO 12MPH.LAL 1.************************* NORTHERN VALLEYS**********************************OWENS VALLEY JUST NORTH OF BISHOP, INCLUDING BENTON, HAMMIL AND CHALFANT VALLEYS. TONIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE 30S. MAXIMUM HUMIDITY 35-55%. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST 8 TO 15 MPH.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 60S. MINIMUM HUMIDITY 12-25%. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH. LAL 1.************************** SOUTHERN VALLEY *********************************OWENS VALLEY FROM BISHOP SOUTH TO NEAR LITTLE LAKE. TONIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. MAXIMUM HUMIDITY 30-45%. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST 8 TO 15 MPH.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. MINIMUM HUMIDITY 12-25%. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH.LAL 1.****************************************************************************THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S MOUNTAINS, AND IN THE 60S AND 70S IN THE VALLEYS. WINDS NORTHEAST TOSOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE VALLEYS.**************************************************************************THE OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES BUT A LITTLE MORE HUMID. WINDS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST 10TO 15 MPH OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE VALLEYS.*****************************************************************************THE EXTENDED WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY OCT 22ND THRU MONDAY OCT 26TH...TEMPERATURES.........NEAR NORMAL.PRECIPITATION........NONE.**************************************************************************** WINDS ALOFT FORECAST FOR BISHOP VALID AT 1600 PST TODAY.24,000 FEET 330/88 KTS 39,000 FEET 320/81 KTS 53,000 FEET 290/42 KTSEND/ROLINSKI

Fire Danger Pocket Card

Use of Fire WeatherProducts and Services

• Planning

• Preparedness

• Operations

NWS - 10/27/98

Photo courtesy of: Larry Haftl, Wildland Firefighter Magazine

NWS Mission

• The NWS is the sole OFFICIAL voice for issuing warnings in life threatening weather situations– The wildland fire agencies believe this is

critical, and puts the NWS squarely behind the fire weather forecasting program!!!

• Critical information and forecasts are provided to emergency managers and local decision makers to support evacuations and other safety measures in response to toxic spills, wildfires, and technological hazards.

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Incident Command SystemA Team Approach

Strike Team sSingle Resources

Divisions

Branches

Operations

Resources

Fire Behavior Analyst

IMET

Situation

Plans Logistics Finance

Incident Com m ander

• Alpha/Numeric Forecasts

• Graphical Products

• Briefings

Current Products & Services

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• Alpha/Numeric Forecasts

• Graphical Products

• Briefings

• Consultation

Current Products & Services

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• Alpha/Numeric Forecasts• Graphical Products• Briefings• Consultation• Incident Meteorologists

Current Products & Services

NWS - 10/27/98

• Alpha/Numeric Forecasts

• Graphical Products

• Briefings

• Consultation

• Incident Meteorologists

• High Resolution - High Frequency Data

Current Products & Services

NWS - 10/27/98

Change in Wildland Fire

• Workforce reductions• Interagency• Hazardous fuels• Higher suppression costs• Larger fires• Greater resource damage• Higher risk to firefighters

• People moving into the wildlands - Interface

• Increase reliance on non-fire personnel

• T & E species

• Significant organizational change

• Contractor resources

NWS - 10/27/98

Future Needs• Broad spectrum products

– Text & graphical to frequent high resolution data

• Large spatial variation– Site specific to Regional/National scale

• Forecasts - probability & confidence

• Expertise improving the science of fire weather and complex terrain meteorology– Operational research - Locally & Nationally

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Future Needs• Technical advice, briefings & consultation

• On-site fire weather expertise

• Weather station data monitoring

• Smoke management - air quality support

• Service to all wildland fire agencies including State Agencies

• Mid to long range forecasts

• Training cadreNWS - 10/27/98

What About Air Quality?

• Air Quality standards, driven by EPA, are getting more restrictive.

• Prescribed fire is a service increasingly demanded of Federal, State, and Local Fire agencies.

• Weather is a KEY component of smoke management plans.

• The NWS has limited authority to provide smoke management forecasts.

Thank you for listening

NWS - 10/27/98

Questions

NWS - 10/27/98