mpr 2008:1 080213
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MPR 2008:1080213
Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bandsPer cent, quarterly averages
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
790%75%50%Repo rate
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 2. GDP with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
690%75%50%GDP
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 3. CPI with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11
-1
0
1
2
3
4
590%75%50%CPI
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 4. CPIX with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11
-1
0
1
2
3
4
590%75%50%CPIX
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 5. Fluctuations in government bond rates
Per cent
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
Euro area (Germany)
Sweden
USA
Source: Reuters EcoWinNote: Calculated as 30-day rolling standard deviation for 2-year rates.
Figure 6. GDP in the USA and the Euro area
Quarterly change in per cent, in annualised terms, seasonally adjusted data
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8USA
Euro area
P
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and the Riksbank
Figure 7. Consensus and the Riksbank’s forecasts for GDP growth in the United States in 2008 at
different points in timeAnnual percentage change
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
The Riksbank
Consensus
Sources: Consensus Economics Inc. and The Riksbank
2007 2008
Figure 8. GDP in Sweden and the worldAnnual percentage change
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6SwedenThe world
Sources: IMF, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 9. Total Swedish exports and export market index for goods
Annual percentage change
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
81 86 91 96 01 06 11
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20Swedish exportExport market index for goods
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 10. Real exchange rate and current account
TCW index, 18 November 1992 = 100 and percentage of GDP
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9Real exchange rate SEK/TCW (left scale)
Current account (right scale)
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 11. TCW exchange rateIndex, 18 November 1992 = 100
120
122
124
126
128
130
132
134
136
138
140
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
120
122
124
126
128
130
132
134
136
138
140OutcomeMPR 2007:3MPR 2008:1
Source: The RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 12. GDPQuarterly change in per cent, in annualised terms,
seasonally adjusted data
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7MPR 2008:1MPR 2007:3Forecast, MPU December 2007
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 13. Households’ disposable incomes, consumption and saving ratio
Annual percentage change, fixed prices and percentage of disposable income
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14Consumption (left scale)Disposable income (left scale)Saving ratio (right scale)
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 14. Labour force and number employed
Thousands, seasonally adjusted data
3800
4000
4200
4400
4600
4800
5000
80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15
3800
4000
4200
4400
4600
4800
5000Labour force 16-64 year oldsLabour foce (EU-definition)Number employedNumber employed (EU-definition)
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 15. Percentage of open unemployed 16-64 years-old and percentage of unemployed 15-74
years according to the new EU ordinancePercentage of the labour force, seasonally adjusted data
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15
0
2
4
6
8
10
12Open unemployment, 16-64 year-olds
Unemployment, 15-74 year-olds (EU definition)
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 16. Actual an trend labour productivity for the economy as a wholeAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5MPR 2007:3
MPR 2008:1
HP-trend
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 17. Unit labour costs for the economy as a whole
Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8Unit labour costsHourly labour costProductivity
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 18. CPI and CPIXAnnual percentage change
-1
0
1
2
3
4
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
-1
0
1
2
3
4CPI
CPIX
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 19. Oil price, Brent crudeUSD per barrel
Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Oil price, outcome
Forwards, average up to 15 October 2007
Forwards, average up to 7 December 2007
Forwards, average up to 30 January 2008
Figure 20. CPIX excluding energyAnnual percentage change
0
1
2
3
4
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
0
1
2
3
4MPR 2008:1
MPR 2007:3
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 21. Repo rate forecasts on different occasions
Per cent, quarterly averages
1
2
3
4
5
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
1
2
3
4
5MPR 2007:3
MPU December 2007
MPR 2008:1
Source: The RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 22. CPIX forecasts on different occasions
Annual percentage change
-1
0
1
2
3
4
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
-1
0
1
2
3
4MPR 2008:1
MPU December 2007
MPR 2007:3
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 23. Employment forecasts on different occasions
Thousands, seasonally adjusted data
4100
4200
4300
4400
4500
4600
4700
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
4100
4200
4300
4400
4500
4600
4700Employed (EU-definition)
MPR 2008:1
MPU December 2007
MPR 2007:3
Employed 16-64 year-olds
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Table 1. Inflation, annual average Annual percentage change
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 CPI 1.4 2.2 (2.2) 3.4 (3.6) 2.5 (2.4) 2.3 (2.2) CPIX 1.2 1.2 (1.2) 2.5 (2.7) 2.2 (2.1) 2.1 (2.0) KPIX excl. energy 0.6 1.5 (1.4) 2.2 (2.3) 2.2 (2.2) 2.2 (2.2)
Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update In December 2007 is stated in parentheses.
Table 2. Inflation, 12-month rate Annual percentage change
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update In December 2007 is stated in parentheses.
Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11
CPI 1.9 3.4 (3.6) 2.6 (2.6) 2.4 (2.3) 2.2
CPIX 1.2 2.3 (2.6) 2.2 (2.2) 2.1 (2.0) 2.0
CPIX excl. energy 1.2 2.2 (2.2) 2.2 (2.2) 2.3 (2.3) 2.2
Table 3. Key figures Annual percentage change, unless otherwise stated
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
*New weights from the World bank have been used for the aggregate world growth for the previous forecast, too. These values thus do not correspond to those published in the Monetary Policy Update in December 2007.
Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update In December 2007 is stated in parentheses.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
GDP, the world* 4.9 4.8 (5.0) 4.1 (4.5) 4.2 (4.4) 4.3 (4.4) Crude oil price, Brent USD/barrel, annual average 65 73 (73) 89 (89) 87 (86) 86 (85) Exchagnge rate, TCW index annual average 127.4 125.2 (125.2) 123.5 (122.5) 123.0 (121.5) 122.9 (121.1) Repo rate, per cent annual average 2.2 3.5 (3.5) 4.3 (4.2) 4.3 (4.3) 4.3 (4.3) General government net lending, percentage of GDP 2.2 3.1 (2.7) 2.3 (2.6) 1.7 (2.2) 1.6 (1.8) GDP, calender adjusted 4.1 2.5 (2.6) 2.4 (2.4) 2.0 (2.1) 2.8 (2.8) Numbers employed (EU-defintion) 1.9 2.5 (2.5) 1.1 (1.4) 0.2 (0.2) 0.1 (0.1) Unemployment (EU-definition)* 7.0 6.1 (6.1) 5.9 (5.9) 5.9 (5.8) 5.8 (5.8) Hourly wage in economy as a whole 3.1 3.6 (3.8) 4.2 (4.4) 4.0 (4.1) 3.8 (3.8)
Table 4. Repo rate forecastPer cent, quarterly average
Source: The RiksbankNote. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update In December 2007 is stated in parentheses.
Q 1 2008 Q 2 2008 Q 3 2008 Q 4 2008 Q 1 2009 Q 1 2010 Q 1 2011
Repo rate 4.1 (4.1) 4.3 (4.2) 4.3 (4.3) 4.3 (4.3) 4.4 (4.4) 4.3 (4.3) 4.3
Figure 24. Repo rate assumptionsPer cent, quarterly averages
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
0
1
2
3
4
5
6Main scenario
Lower interest rate
Higher interest rate
Source: The RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 25. CPIXAnnual percentage change
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0Lower interest rate
Higher interest rate
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 26. GDPAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0Lower interest rateHigher interest rateMain scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 27. Output gaps (GDP)Percentage deviation from the HP trend
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3Lower interest rate
Higher interest rate
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 28. Labour market gapsPercentage deviation from the HP trend
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3Lower interest rate
Higher interest rate
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 29. Number of hours workedAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0Lower interest rate
Higher interest rate
Main Scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 30. Employment ratePer cent, seasonally adjusted data
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
Main scenario
Lower interest rate
Higher interest rate
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 31. Open unemployment according to the ILO definition
Percentage of the labour force, seasonally adjusted data
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11Lower interest rate
Higher interest rate
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 32. GDP, scenario wiith greater financial turmoil
Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0Greater financial turmoil
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 33. CPIX, scenario with greater financial turmoil
Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0Greater financial turmoilMain scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 34. Repo rate, scenario with greater financial turmoil
Per cent, quarterly averages
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0Greater financial turmoil
Main scenario
Source: The RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 35. GDP, scenario with higher international inflation
Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0Higher international inflation
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 36. CPIX, scenario with higher international inflationPer cent, quarterly averages
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0Higher international inflation
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 37. Repo rate, scenario with higher international inflationPer cent, quarterly averages
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0Higher international inflation
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 38. Oil price, scenario with higher oil priceUSD/barrel
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130Main scenario
Higher oil price
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 39. The difference between interbank rates and government bond
ratesBasis points
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08
0
50
100
150
200
250Euro area (Germany)SwedenUSAUK
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 40. Interbank rates in SwedenPer cent
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.0
Aug 07 Sep 07 Oct 07 Nov 07 Dec 07 Jan 08 Feb 08
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.0STIBOR T/NRepo rateSTIBOR, 1 monthSTIBOR, 3 months
Source: The RiksbankNote. STIBOR T/N refers to overnight right from tomorrow until the day after.
Figure 41. Spread between interbank rates and expected monetary policy
Basis points
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08
0
20
40
60
80
100
120Euro area
USA
UK
Sweden
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 42. Interest rates in SwedenPer cent
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
jan/07 mar/07 maj/07 jul/07 sep/07 nov/07 jan/08 mar/08
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Interbank rate
Repo rate
Mortgages
Source: SBAB and the Riksbank
Figure 43. GDPAnnual percentage change
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
0
1
2
3
4
5
6USAOECDEuro area
Sources: Eurostat, OECD and the US Department of Commerce
Figure 44. Employment and private consumption in the United States
Annual percentage change
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6Private consumption
Employment
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Department of Commerce
Figure 45. Confidence indicators in the euro area.
Balance, deviations from averages 1995-2007
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30Manufacturing industry
Construction sector
Service sectors
Source: European Commission
Figure 46. Confidence indicators for households and for manufacturing companies in the United KingdomBalance, deviations from averages 1990-2007
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Manufacturing industry
Consumers
Source: European CommissionNote. Broken lines are averages of the respective curves from 1990.
Figure 47. HICP in the euro areaAnnual percentage change
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Excluding energy, foods, alcohol, tobacco
Total
Excluding energy
Source: Eurostat
Figure 48. Monetary policy expectations in the Euro area and the United States
Per cent
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0RefiRefi , 31 January 2008Refi , 18 December 2007Fed fundsFed funds, 31 January 2008Fed funds, 18 December 2007
Source: The Riksbank
Diagram 49 Monetary policy expectations in Sweden
Per cent
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Repo rate
Based on bank securities(STINA &FRA) 18December 2007Based on bank securities(STINA &FRA)31 January2008Survey average (Prospera), 5 December 2007
Survey average (Prospera), 16 January 2008
Sources: Prospera Research AB and the Riksbank
Figure 50. Long-term interest ratesPer cent
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
jan/04 jul/04 jan/05 jul/05 jan/06 jul/06 jan/07 jul/07 jan/08
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5Germany
USA
Sweden
Source: Reuters EcoWinNote. Government bonds with approximately 10 years left to maturity.
Figure 51. Exchange rate movementsSEK/EUR and SEK/USD
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
jan/06 jul/06 jan/07 jul/07 jan/08
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0SEK/EUR
SEK/USD
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 52. TCW exchange rateIndex, 18 November 1992 = 100
Source: The Riksbank
120
122
124
126
128
130
132
134
136
138
jan-04 jul-04 jan-05 jul-05 jan-06 jul-06 jan-07 jul-07 jan-08
120
122
124
126
128
130
132
134
136
138Outcome for the fourth quarter 2007 and forecast for the first quarter 2008 in MPR 2008:1
Forecast for the fourth quarter 2007 and the first quarter 2008 in MPR 2007:3
Figure 53. Stock market movementsIndex, 1 January 1999 = 100
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220OMX 30, SwedenS&P 500, USADAX 30, Germany
Source: Reuters Ecowin
Figure 54. The money supplyAnnual percentage change
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
24M0M2M3
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 55. House prices and total lending to Swedish households
Annual percentage change
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Lending to householdsProperty prices
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 56. GDPQuarterly change in per cent, in annualised terms,
seasonally adjusted data
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7MPR 2008:1
MPR 2007:3
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 57. Confidence indicators for major industries
Seasonally adjusted balance
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Manufacturing industry
Retail trade
Private service industries
Construction
Figure 58. Gross fixed capital formationAnnual percentage change
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
94 96 98 00 02 04 06
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Housing
Business sector excluding housing
Public authorities
Source: Statistics Sweden and The Riksbank
Figure 59. Foreign trade with goods at fixed prices
Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15ImportExport
Source: Statistics Sweden and The RiksbankNote. Three month moving average
Figure 60. Retail sales and household consumption
Annual percentage change
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
94 96 98 00 02 04 06
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Total household consumptionHousehold consumption of retail goodsRetail sales
Sources: The National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden
Figure 61. Household expectations of the futureBalance
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80Confidence indicator
Unemployment
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 62. New and unfilled vacant jobs and redundancy notices.
Thousands, seasonally adjusted data
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24Redundancy notices (right scale)Unfilled vacancies (left scale)New vacancies (left scales)
Source: Swedish Public Employment ServiceNote. Three month moving average.
Figure 63. Vacancies and redundancy notices
Thousands, seasonally adjusted data
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
01 02 03 04 05 06 07
0
10
20
30
40
50
60Redundancy notices
Vacancies
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 64. Hiring plans and number of employed in the business sector
Balance and annual percentage change
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6Hiring plans according to NIER’s quarterly businesstendency survey (left scale)
Number of employed according to NationalAccounts (right scale)
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden
Figure 65. Labour productivity for the economy as a whole
Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5MPR 2007:3
MPR 2008:1
HP-trend
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 66. Estimated HP gapsPercentage deviation from HP trend
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5Hours workedEmploymentGDP
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 67. Capacity utilisation in industry Per cent, seasonally adjusted data
75
80
85
90
95
80 85 90 95 00 05 10
75
80
85
90
95Statistics Sweden, actual capacity utilisation in industry
NIER, current capacity utilisation in the manufacturing industry
Sources: The National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden
Figure 68. Proportion of firms reporting a shortage of labour
Per cent, seasonally adjusted data
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80Manufacturing industryConstruction sectorBusiness sectorRetail tradePrivate service sector
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
Figure 69. Employment rateProportion of the population aged 16-64 in the labour
force
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
Employment rate 16-64 year-olds
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Pre-1993 data has been spliced by the Riksbank.
Figure 70. Wages in the construction, service and manufacturing sectors
Annual percentage change
1
2
3
4
5
6
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
1
2
3
4
5
6IndustryConstruction sectorService sectors
Sources: National Mediation OfficeNote. Three month moving average.
Figure 71. Unit labour costs for the economy as a whole
Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
94 96 98 00 02 04 06
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8Unit labour costHourly labour costProductivity
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 72. Wage shareLabour costs' share of the added value
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
Wage share
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Four-quarter moving average.
Figure 73. Actual inflation (CPI) and households’ and companies’ expectations
of inflation one year aheadAnnual percentage change
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden
-1
0
1
2
3
4
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
-1
0
1
2
3
4
CPIHouseholds, Statistics SwedenHouseholds, National Institute of Economic ResearchCompanies, National Institute of Economic Research
Figure 74. Different agents’ expectations of inflation two years ahead
Annual percentage change
0
1
2
3
4
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
0
1
2
3
4Purchasing managersSocial partners
Money market agents
Source: Prospera Research AB
Figure 75. The difference between nominal and inflation-linked five-year rates (break-
even inflation)Percentage points
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Break-even inflation
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 76. CPI, CPIX and CPIX excluding energy
Annual percentage change
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0CPIX excluding energyCPIXCPI
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 77. CPIX excluding energy, broken down into goods, services and food
Annual percentage change
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6Goods excluding food and energy (27%)
Services (45%)
Food (18%)
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 78. Producer pricesAnnual percentage change
Source: Statistics Sweden
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15Price index for domestic assets, consumption goods
Price index for domestic assets, intermediate goods
Figure 79. Commodity pricesUDS, annual percentage change
Source: The Economist
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100FoodOther agricultural productsMetalsTotal
Figure 80. Different measures of underlying inflationAnnual percentage change
-1
0
1
2
3
4
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
-1
0
1
2
3
4CPIXTRIM85CPIX excluding energyUND24
Sources: Statistics Sweden The Riksbank
Table 5. Indicators for GDP in the short term
Indicator Most recent outcome Tendency
Exports of goods Dec-07 +/- Imports of goods Dec-07 - Retail trade Dec-07 - Industrial production Nov-07 - NIER s Research’s Business Tendency Survey Jan-08 +/- Consumer Tendency survey Jan-08 - Purchasing Managers Index Jan-08 +/-
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure B1. Energy prices in the CPI adjusted for the effects of changes in
indirect taxes Annual percentage change
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
95 97 99 01 03 05 07
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30Oil productsElectricityEnergy, total
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure B2. CPIX inflation and direct and indirect effects of changes in energy prices during the
period 2002-2007 Annual percentage change and percentage points
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
02 03 04 05 06 07
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Direct effectsIndirect effectsCPIX
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure B3. The Economists commodity price index for food
USD, annual percentage change
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
95 97 99 01 03 05 07
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50Food
Source: The Economist
Figure B4. Consumer and producer food prices
Annual percentage change
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
95 97 99 01 03 05 07
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9Food in CPIXFood in ITPI
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure B5. Food price in the CPI in some countries
Annual percentage change
-5
0
5
10
15
20
00 02 04 06
-5
0
5
10
15
20USAUnited KingdomEuro areaChinaSweden
Sources: The respective countries’ statistical agencies
Table A1. Inflation, 12-month rate Annual percentage change
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Mar -07 Mar -08 Mar -09 Mar -10 Mar -11
CPI 1.9 3.4 (2.8) 2.6 (2.5) 2.4 (2.3) 2.2
CPIX 1.2 2.3 (1.8) 2.2 (2.1) 2.1 (2.0) 2.0
CPIX excl. energy 1.2 2.2 (1.9) 2.2 (2.1) 2.3 (2.2) 2.2
Table A2. Change in CPI compared to
change in CPIX Annual percentage change and percentage points
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 CPIX excl. energy 0.6 1.5 (1.4) 2.2 (2.0) 2.2 (2.2) 2.2 (2.2) CPIX 1.2 1.2 (1.1) 2.5 (2.0) 2.2 (2.0) 2.1 (2.0) Changes in mortgage interest expenditure* 0.1 0.9 (0.8) 0.8 (0.8) 0.4 (0.4) 0.3 (0.3) Changes in indirect taxes and subsidies* 0.1 0.1 (0.1) 0.1 (0.2) 0.0 (0.0) 0.0 (0.0) CPI 1.4 2.2 (2.1) 3.4 (2.9) 2.5 (2.4) 2.3 (2.2)
* Contribution to CPI-inflation, per cent
Table A3. Interest rates, exchange rates and public finances
Per cent, annual average
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Repo rate 2.2 3.5 (3.5) 4.3 (4.3) 4.3 (4.4) 4.3 (4.3) 10-year rate 3.7 4.2 (4.2) 4.5 (4.6) 4.8 (4.9) 5.0 (5.1) Exchange rate, TCW-index, 1992-11-19=100 127.4 125.2 (124.9) 124.1 (122.4) 123.1 (121.5) 122.9 (121.1) General government net lending 2.2 3.1 (2.6) 2.3 (2.6) 1.7 (2.2) 1.6 (1.8)
Table A4. International conditions Annual percentage change
Sources: IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, OECD, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
GDP 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
USA 2.9 2.2 (2.0) 1.7 (2.0) 2.5 (2.8) 3.0 (3.3) Japan 2.2 1.9 (1.9) 1.5 (1.7) 1.6 (1.6) 1.5 (1.5) Euro area 2.8 2.7 (2.5) 1.7 (1.9) 2.0 (2.1) 2.1 (2.0) OECD 3.0 2.7 (2.5) 2.1 (2.3) 2.5 (2.6) 2.7 (2.7) TCW-Weighted 3.1 2.8 (2.7) 1.9 (2.1) 2.1 (2.2) 2.3 (2.3) World* 4.9 4.8 (4.8) 4.1 (4.5) 4.2 (4.3) 4.3 (4.4)
CPI 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
USA 3.2 2.9 (2.8) 2.6 (2.2) 1.8 (2.1) 2.2 (2.4) Japan 0.2 -0.1 (-0.1) 0.2 (0.2) 0.4 (0.6) 0.5 (0.6)
Euro area (HICP) 2.2 2.1 (2.0) 2.5 (2.0) 2.1 (1.9) 1.9 (1.9)
OECD 2.6 2.4 (2.3) 2.4 (2.1) 2.0 (2.1) 2.1 (2.2)
TCW-Weighted 2.1 2.0 (1.9) 2.3 (1.9) 1.9 (1.8) 1.9 (1.9)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Crude oil price, USD/barrel, annual average 65 73 (70) 89 (77) 87 (75) 86 (74) Swedish export market growth 9.4 4.3 (4.1) 5.8 (6.3) 6.2 (6.3) 6.4 (6.3)
*New weights from the World bank have been used for the aggregate world growth for the previous forecast, too. These values thus do not correspond to those published in the Monetary Policy Update in December 2007.
Table A5. GDP and GDP by expenditure
Annual percentage change
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Private consumption 2.5 3.1 (2.8) 2.7 (3.4) 2.9 (3.1) 3.2 (3.2) Public consumption 1.5 0.3 (1.5) 1.0 (1.2) 0.4 (0.8) 1.1 (1.0) Gross fixed capital formation 7.7 8.0 (9.3) 4.4 (4.7) 1.9 (2.5) 2.4 (2.5) Inventory investments* 0.2 0.9 (0.3) -0.1 (0.0) 0.0 (0.1) 0.1 (0.1) Export 8.9 5.0 (5.3) 5.5 (5.9) 4.8 (5.4) 5.9 (5.9) Import 8.2 9.0 (7.5) 6.2 (7.0) 5.1 (6.2) 5.9 (6.3) GDP 4.1 2.5 (3.1) 2.4 (2.8) 2.0 (2.3) 2.8 (2.6) GDP, calendar-adjusted 4.4 2.8 (3.3) 2.1 (2.7) 2.2 (2.3) 2.5 (2.4)
* Contribution to GDP growth, percentage points
Table A6. Output, employment and unemployment
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise else indicated
Sources: National Labour market Board, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
* Percentage of the labour force
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Population, aged 16-64 1,0 0,9 (0,9) 0,4 (0,6) 0,5 (0,3) 0,1 (0,1) GDP, Calendar-adjusted 4,4 2,8 (3,3) 2,1 (2,7) 2,2 (2,3) 2,5 (2,4) Number of hours worked 2,0 3,2 (3,2) 1,0 (1,2) 0,1 (0,2) 0,1 (0,0) Number of employed (EU definition) 1,9 2,5 (2,7) 1,1 (1,5) 0,2 (0,2) 0,1 (0,0) Labour force (EU definition) 1,1 1,5 (1,7) 0,8 (1,1) 0,1 (0,1) 0,1 (0,0)
Unemployment (EU definition)* 7,0 6,1 (6,1) 5,9 (5,8) 5,9 (5,7) 5,8 (5,8) Labour market programmes* 2,9 1,8 (1,9) 1,8 (1,8) 1,9 (1,9) 1,8 (1,8)
Table A7. Wages, productivity and labour costs for the economy as a
whole Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data
Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Hourly wage, NMO 3.1 3.6 (3.9) 4.2 (4.5) 4.0 (4.2) 3.8 (3.8) Hourly wage, NA 3.4 3.8 (4.3) 4.5 (4.7) 4.3 (4.5) 4.1 (4.1) Employer contributions -0.2 -0.1 (0.6) 0.0 (-0.1) 0.0 (-0.2) 0.1 (0.1)
Hourly labour costs, NA 3.2 3.8 (4.9) 4.5 (4.6) 4.3 (4.3) 4.1 (4.2)
Productivity 2.4 -0.4 (0.1) 1.1 (1.5) 2.1 (2.1) 2.4 (2.3)
Unit labour cost 0.8 4.2 (4.8) 3.3 (3.1) 2.2 (2.2) 1.6 (1.8)
Table A8. Repo rate Per cent, annual average
Source: The Riksbank
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Main scenario 2.2 3.5 4.3 4.3 4.3 Lower interest rate 2.2 3.5 3.7 3.3 3.6 Higher interest rate 2.2 3.5 4.8 5.4 5.0
Table A9. CPIX Annual percentage change
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Main scenario 1.2 1.2 2.5 2.2 2.1 Lower interest rate 1.2 1.2 2.7 3.2 3.3 Higher interest rate 1.2 1.2 2.3 1.2 0.9
Table A10. GDP Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data
Source: The Riksbank
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Main scenario 4.4 2.8 2.1 2.2 2.5 Lower interest rate 4.4 2.8 2.4 2.9 2.8 Higher interest rate 4.4 2.8 1.9 1.5 2.3
Table A11. Hours worked Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Main scenario 2.0 3.2 1.0 0.1 0.1 Lower interest rate 2.0 3.2 1.2 0.9 0.3 Higher interest rate 2.0 3.2 0.7 -0.7 -0.1
Table A12. Percentage of unemployed 16-64 year-olds, according to ILO definition
Per cent of labour force, calendar-adjusted data
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Main scenario 7.0 6.2 6.0 5.9 5.9 Lower interest rate 7.0 6.2 5.8 5.2 5.1 Higher interest rate 7.0 6.2 6.2 6.7 6.8
Table A13. Scenario with greater financial turmoil
Annual percentage change unless otherwise specified
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
* Per cent, annual average
Note. Main scenario forecast in brackets.
2007 2008 2009 2010
GDP 2.8 (2.8) 2.0 (2.1) 2.1 (2.2) 2.3 (2.5) CPIX 1.2 (1.2) 2.4 (2.5) 1.9 (2.2) 1.5 (2.1) Repo rate* 3.5 (3.5) 4.1 (4.3) 3.7 (4.3) 3.2 (4.3) TCW-weighted GDP 2.8 (2.8) 1.9 (1.9) 1.7 (2.1) 1.6 (2.3) TCW- weighted CPI 2.0 (2.0) 2.3 (2.3) 1.6 (1.9) 1.1 (1.9) TCW- weighted short-term rates* 4.3 (4.3) 3.7 (3.8) 2.8 (3.5) 2.9 (4.1)
Table A14. Scenario with higher international inflation
Annual percentage change unless otherwise specified
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
* Per cent, annual average
Note. Main scenario forecast in brackets.
2007 2008 2009 2010 GDP 2.8 (2.8) 2.1 (2.1) 2.2 (2.2) 2.5 (2.5)
CPIX 1.2 (1.2) 2.6 (2.5) 2.4 (2.2) 2.1 (2.1) Repo rate* 3.5 (3.5) 4.6 (4.3) 4.7 (4.3) 4.5 (4.3) TCW-weighted GDP 2.8 (2.8) 1.9 (1.9) 2.1 (2.1) 2.2 (2.3) TCW- weighted CPI 2.0 (2.0) 2.9 (2.3) 2.7 (1.9) 2.4 (1.9) TCW- weighted short-term rates* 4.3 (4.3) 4.1 (3.8) 4.1 (3.5) 4.7 (4.1)
Table A15. Scenario with higher oil price Annual percentage change unless otherwise specified
Sources: Intercontinental Exchange, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
* Per cent, annual average
Note. Main scenario forecast in brackets.
2007 2008 2009 2010
Crude oil price, USD/barrel 73 (73) 117 (89) 122 (87) 119 (86)
GDP 2.8 (2.8) 2.1 (2.1) 1.8 (2.2) 2.2 (2.5)
CPIX 1.2 (1.2) 2.7 (2.5) 2.8 (2.2) 2.3 (2.1) Repo rate* 3.5 (3.5) 4.8 (4.3) 5.0 (4.3) 4.7 (4.3) TCW-weighted GDP 2.8 (2.8) 1.9 (1.9) 2.0 (2.1) 2.1 (2.3) TCW- weighted CPI 2.0 (2.0) 2.6 (2.3) 2.2 (1.9) 1.9 (1.9) TCW- weighted short-term rates* 4.3 (4.3) 4.2 (3.8) 3.9 (3.5) 4.4 (4.1)
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