monitoring a changing climate: an overview for state wildlife planners jonathan mawdsley the heinz...

Monitoring a changing climate: An overview for State Wildlife Planners

Jonathan MawdsleyThe Heinz Center

Why Monitor Climate Change?• Tells you what is happening on the ground• Provides data for testing model projections• Provides data for additional modeling• Provides feedback on effectiveness of your

conservation actions• Allows course corrections to your

management activities

Questions Monitoring Can Answer

• How is the climate actually changing?• How is climate change affecting the

biophysical environment?• How is climate change affecting species and

ecosystems?• How effective are our climate-change

mitigation and adaptation activities?

Monitoring Climate Change

Elements of a monitoring program:• Direct measures of climate change• Secondary effects of climate change• Ecological effects of climate change• Effectiveness monitoring of mitigation and

adaptation activities

Good News!• Many existing monitoring programs• Much data already available• Synthetic studies of data published– Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change– U. S. Global Change Research Program– National Climate Assessment

• Translational products available on Web, some even user-friendly!

Direct MeasuresMeteorological measures– Temperature, precipitation, weather events, storm

frequency…

Records maintained and synthesized by:– National Climatic Data Center (NOAA)

• www.ncdc.noaa.gov

– Regional Climate CentersRecommend working with local meteorologists (local

university) to obtain and interpret data

Secondary Effects of Climate Change• Sea Level Rise

– NOAA Tides and Currents, Sea Level Rise Viewer• Fire frequency, intensity

– Forest Service Remote Sensing Applications CenterLANDFIRE

• Floods– USGS Floods and Droughts– FEMA National Flood Hazard Layer

• Droughts– USGS Floods and Droughts– National Drought Monitor (USDA, NOAA)

• Extreme Storm Events – National Climatic Data Center

Ecological Effects• Changes in phenology– USA National Phenology Network, Nature’s Notebook– Extensive literature on phenological shifts

• Changes in distribution– 2012 analysis of Breeding Bird Survey data– Many reports in literature

• Changes in population size/extent– Again, Breeding Bird Survey analyses– Increasing number of reports in literature

Monitoring SpeciesDifferent approaches:• Identify species that are of interest to

management authorities, determine areas of vulnerability, and monitor those

• Identify species at greatest risk from climate change and monitor changes in those species

• Depends on the management approach of your department/agency

Climate Change and Western Lands• Workshops in four states (AZ,

NV, UT, WY)• Identify conservation targets

for management• Identify threats, stressors,

conservation actions• Develop conceptual model • Identify key rates, states,

processes for monitoring• Identify existing monitoring

programs that provide relevant data

• Establish priorities for new data collection

• Strategic planning effort paralleling State Wildlife Plan

• Identified focal species of cultural, ecological, economic importance

• For focal species, identify movement corridors, refugia

• Manage habitat along corridors to promote connections

• Judicious translocations to suitable future habitats

• Monitor habitat, population responses

Helping Desert Bighorns Adapt

What you monitor depends on what you are trying to accomplish with your management activities

Many proposed measures are straightforward:• Mitigation: plant trees; measure tree growth and carbon

uptake• Mitigation: protect forest lands; measure carbon

sequestered in forest & not released to atmosphere• Adaptation: restore corridors; measure wildlife movements

along restored corridors• Adaptation: species translocation; measure survival and

recruitment at new site(s)

Effectiveness Measures

Take-home Messages

• You can incorporate climate monitoring information into your State Wildlife Plan

• Climate monitoring programs, data already available

• Many of our existing monitoring programs can yield data about climate change and its effects on wildlife and ecosystems