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ARMAEREO
1
MINISTERO DELLA DIFESA
DGAA – DIREZIONE GENERALE DEGLI ARMAMENTI AERONAUTICI Air Armaments General Directorate
T.Col. GArn Rubino Ing. Carlo carlo.rubino@aeronautica.difesa.it
Warsaw, July 6th, 2011
ARMAEREO
2
SCOPE
PRESENTATION OUTLINE
Describing the regulatory framework that
allows Italian MoD to operate Military UAVs
over national territory and providing the
Forum with the Italian lesson learned.
ARMAEREO
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
NATIONAL REGULATION
SAFETY REQUIREMENTS
GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE
SAFETY REQUIREMENTS - THE FUTURE
CONCLUSIONS
ARMAEREO
4
TABLE OF CONTENTS
NATIONAL REGULATION
SAFETY REQUIREMENTS
GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE
SAFETY REQUIREMENTS - THE FUTURE
CONCLUSIONS
ARMAEREO
5
D.Lgs. del 15-
03-06 MILITARY AIRCRAFT
(UAVs INCLUDED)
IT MOD
DGAA WEIGHT UAV CLASSES
W < 2 kg MICRO
2 <W< 20 kg MINI
20 <W <150 kg LIGHT
150 <W <500 kg TUAV
500 <W <2720 kg
SUAV W > 2720 kg
- UNCLASSIFIED -
NATIONAL
REGULATION SAFETY REQUIREMENT
GEOGRAPHICAL
SAFETY CASE CONCLUSIONS
NATIONAL REGULATION
ARMAEREO
6
Military UAVs operations are
allowed over the Italian territory,
within selected areas and corridors,
in order to comply with the current
defence operational requirements.
MILITARY UAVS OPERATION IN ITALY
NATIONAL REGULATION
- UNCLASSIFIED -
NATIONAL
REGULATION
SAFETY
REQUIREMENTS
GEOGRAPHICAL
SAFETY CASE CONCLUSIONS
ARMAEREO
8
NATIONAL REGULATION
Airworthiness assessment
(Safety Analysis)
Operative Areas
Definition
Definition of
ATM Procedures
DTO
DGAA
AMI
ENAC +
ENAV
03
DPR 178 - July 17, 2004
AER.P-6
AER.P-2
They are regularly updated to include lessons learned
from national and international experiences
ARMAEREO
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Today IT operate UAVs which are not fully
compliant with safety requirements set by DGAA
(e.g. Sense&Avoid Capabilities)
1.Population Density Restrictions
2.Mission Safety Evaluation
3.Segregated Areas identified in accordance with Civil NAA
MITIGATION FACTORS
NATIONAL REGULATION
- UNCLASSIFIED -
NATIONAL
REGULATION
SAFETY
REQUIREMENTS
GEOGRAPHICAL
SAFETY CASE CONCLUSIONS
ARMAEREO
10
TABLE OF CONTENTS
NATIONAL REGULATION
SAFETY REQUIREMENTS
GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE
SAFETY REQUIREMENTS - THE FUTURE
CONCLUSIONS
ARMAEREO
11
UAV SAFETY REQUIREMENTS
DGAA is carrying out a proper updating to its
airworthiness requirements regulations in the contract
(AER.P-6) and certification activities (AER.P-2),
concerning UAVs aspects
Lessons Learned from using previous versions
of the regulations
Rationale produced by DGAA specialists in
FINAS teams
- UNCLASSIFIED -
NATIONAL
REGULATION
SAFETY
REQUIREMENTS
GEOGRAPHICAL
SAFETY CASE CONCLUSIONS
ARMAEREO
12
UAV SAFETY REQUIREMENTS
FAILURE CONDITION SEVERITY (STANAG 4671 Ed 2)
Failure conditions that are expected to result in at least
uncontrolled flight (including flight outside of pre-planned
or contingency flight profiles/areas) and/or uncontrolled
crash,
or
Failure conditions which may result in a fatality to UAV
crew or ground staff.
CATASTROPHIC
[=UNCONTROLLED
FLIGHT or DEATH]
AER.P-6 DEFINITION FOR UAV (=STANAG 4671 Ed 2) CATEGORY
HAZARDOUS [=UAV LOSS
WITHOUT ANY
FATALITY]
Failure conditions that either by themselves or in
conjunction with increased crew workload, are expected
to result in a controlled-trajectory termination or forced
landing potentially leading to the loss of the UAV where it
can be reasonably expected that a fatality will not occur.
or
Failure conditions for which it can reasonably expected
that a fatality to UAV crew or ground staff will not occur
ARMAEREO
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SAFETY REQUIREMENTS
It is the result of the trade off activity among different
needs:
• to develop new UAV technology
• to take into account technological constraints
• to protect overflown people
- UNCLASSIFIED -
NATIONAL
REGULATION
SAFETY
REQUIREMENTS
GEOGRAPHICAL
SAFETY CASE CONCLUSIONS
SAFETY REQUIREMENTS
ARMAEREO
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AIRWORTHINESS REQUIREMENTS
NATIONAL
REGULATION
SAFETY
REQUIREMENTS
GEOGRAPHICAL
SAFETY CASE CONCLUSIONS
CIVIL REQUIREMENTs
• At the moment there are NO specific airworthiness requirements (CS,
FAR) for UAVs
• There are Policy Statements issued to address UAV Certification
(e.g. E.Y01301 mentioning STANAG 4671)
• Working groups activated
MILITARY REQUIREMENTs
NATO countries have been working for several years to develop a
complete regulatory framework to fly UAV in non-segregated airspace
(FINAS)
STANAG 4671 Ed2 (Fixed wing >150kg) – Ratified
STANAG 4702 (Rotary wing) - Ready for ratification by end 2011
STANAG 4703 (Fixed wing <150kg) – Ready for ratification
ARMAEREO
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3 SCENARIOS ARE IDENTIFIED
I. NON TERMINAL PHASES OF THE FLIGHT – CRUISE
“LOSS OF THE UAV WITH ACTIVATION OF THE PARACHUTE”
(ALMOST VERTICAL DESCENT WITH LOW KINETIC ENERGY AT THE IMPACT)
II. NON TERMINAL PHASES OF THE FLIGHT – CRUISE
“LOSS OF THE UAV AT HIGH SPEED”
(DESCENT WITH HIGH KINETIC ENERGY AT THE IMPACT)
III. INITIAL/TERMINAL PHASES OF THE FLIGHT –
TAKEOFF/LANDING/CLIMB/APPROACH:
“LOSS OF THE UAV AT LOW SPEED”
(DESCENT WITH MEDIUM KINETIC ENERGY AT THE IMPACT)
METHOD TO CALCULATE THE POPULATION
DENSITY RESTRICTION
(ref. FAA AC-431.35-1)
POPULATION DENSITY RESTRICTION
NATIONAL
REGULATION
SAFETY
REQUIREMENTS
GEOGRAPHICAL
SAFETY CASE CONCLUSIONS
- UNCLASSIFIED -
ARMAEREO
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332211 APAPAP
PDP
scenerysceneryscenery
CATCUM
phases-terminalExp 3-scenario
phases-terminalExp 2-scenario
phases-terminalExp 1-scenario
P
1P
11P
flightTimeosure%loss-UAV
flightTimeosure%parachutefailureloss-UAV
flightTimeosure%parachutefailureloss-UAV
TP
TPP
TPP
1.82 m
L
h
0.6096
m
Rp= 0.3048 m
DEBRIS
AREA
POPULATION DENSITY RESTRICTION
Impact Area
NATIONAL
REGULATION
SAFETY
REQUIREMENTS
GEOGRAPHICAL
SAFETY CASE CONCLUSIONS
- UNCLASSIFIED -
ARMAEREO
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EFFECT ON COSTS
? 1E-5 or 1E-6 ?
MoD procure UAVs to fly them and NOT to loose
COST SAVINGs due to
a lower crash rate could be considered
when fixing the level of safety
It is possible to
statistically foresee
the number of crashes
and the ground fatalities
to determine
the cost benefit of
increasing in safety
Is it better to procure a HALE UAV around 4000 kg
with 1E-5 or 1E-6 / fh probability of catastrophic event?
NATIONAL
REGULATION
SAFETY
REQUIREMENTS
GEOGRAPHICAL
SAFETY CASE CONCLUSIONS
- UNCLASSIFIED -
ARMAEREO
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MTOW [kg] 4500
length [m] 11,0
span [m] 20,1
max speed [kts] 240
max altitude [kft] 50
in-service life [h] 15000
cost per UAV 1E-5 [m$] 10
cost per UAV 1E-6 [m$] 20
cost per human life [m$] 6
Worldwide fleet dimension [# of UAV]
250
Over-flown average population density
[inh/km2]
100
(in IT this is
180)
Conservatively we
assume that an order
of magnitude in
safety doubles costs
of each UAV
Average cost of
human life from
different US sources
NATIONAL
REGULATION
SAFETY
REQUIREMENTS
GEOGRAPHICAL
SAFETY CASE CONCLUSIONS
COSTS EVALUATION
- UNCLASSIFIED -
ARMAEREO
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COSTS EVALUATION…an example
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0 5 10 15 20 25
x = number of people
p(x
) =
pro
ba
bilit
y o
f lo
os
ing
#x
liv
es
1,00E-05
1,00E-060%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
x = number of UAVs
p(x
) =
pro
ba
bilit
y o
f lo
os
ing
#x
UA
Vs
1,00E-05
1,00E-06
1E-5
42 UAVs with
80% C.L.
1E-6
5 UAVs with
82% C.L.
1E-5
14 LIVEs with 91% C.L.
1E-6
2 LIVEs with 92% C.L.
UAVs
LIVEs
NATIONAL
REGULATION
SAFETY
REQUIREMENTS
GEOGRAPHICAL
SAFETY CASE CONCLUSIONS
- UNCLASSIFIED -
ARMAEREO
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Safety Requirement 1,00E-05
COST for UAVs losses [m$] 420
COST for LIVEs losses [m$] 84
TOTAL COST DUE TO CATASTROPHIC FAILUREs [m$] 504
Safety Requirement 1,00E-06
COST for UAVs losses [m$] 100
COST for LIVEs losses [m$] 12
TOTAL COST DUE TO CATASTROPHIC FAILUREs [m$] 112
504-112=392
AN ORDER OF MAGNITUDE IN SAFETY (FROM 1E-5 TO
1E-6) COSTS LESS THAN THE CUMULATIVE COST OF
CATASTROPHIC EVENTS
NATIONAL
REGULATION
SAFETY
REQUIREMENTS
GEOGRAPHICAL
SAFETY CASE CONCLUSIONS
- UNCLASSIFIED -
COSTS EVALUATION…an example
ARMAEREO
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
NATIONAL REGULATION
SAFETY REQUIREMENTS
GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE
SAFETY REQUIREMENTS - THE FUTURE
CONCLUSIONS
ARMAEREO
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Mission phase exposure time is introduced to allow the
UAV system to fly over an higher populated area for a
limited period of time
i
iiiimissioncatastr TDPAPP %
GEOGRAPHICAL MISSION SAFETY
NATIONAL
REGULATION
SAFETY
REQUIREMENTS
GEOGRAPHICAL
SAFETY CASE CONCLUSIONS
- UNCLASSIFIED -
MISSION PHASE EXPOSURE TIME
ARMAEREO
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UAV GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE
ARMAEREO
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UAV GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE
ARMAEREO
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TAKE OFF Exp.Time=0,51% DP=0
TAKEOFF
UAV GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE
ARMAEREO
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CLIMB
CLIMB Exp.Time=0,77% DP=13
UAV GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE
ARMAEREO
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TR
AN
SFER
1
TRANSFER 1 Exp.Time=5,20% DP=22 TRANSFER 2 Exp.Time=4,39% DP=22
TR
AN
SFER
2
OPERATIONAL AREA Exp.Time=87,55% DP=4
UAV GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE
ARMAEREO
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DESCENT
DESCENT Exp.Time=1,06% DP=13
UAV GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE
ARMAEREO
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LANDING Exp.Time=0,51% DP=0
LANDING
UAV GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE
ARMAEREO
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UAV GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE
ARMAEREO
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
NATIONAL REGULATION
SAFETY REQUIREMENTS
GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE
SAFETY REQUIREMENTS - THE FUTURE
CONCLUSIONS
ARMAEREO
32
UAV SAFETY REQUIREMENTS
DGAA is carrying out a proper updating to its
airworthiness requirements regulations in the contract
(AER.P-6) and certification activities (AER.P-2),
concerning UAVs aspects
Rationale produced by DGAA specialists in
FINAS teams
- UNCLASSIFIED -
NATIONAL
REGULATION
SAFETY
REQUIREMENTS
GEOGRAPHICAL
SAFETY CASE CONCLUSIONS
Lessons Learned from using previous
versions of the regulations
ARMAEREO
33
UAV SAFETY REQUIREMENTS
(15;1E-4)
(150;1E-5)
(750;1E-5)
(4000;1E-6)
1,E-07
1,E-06
1,E-05
1,E-04
1,E-03
0,1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000
Maximum Take-Off Weight [kg]
Cu
mu
lati
ve
Pro
ba
bilit
y C
ata
str
op
hic
[/f
lh]
MICRO MINI LIGHT TACTICAL STRATEGIC
0,0015 / MTOW
0,0813 / (MTOW)1,36
CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF CATASTROPHIC EVENT
This smooth curve is better
than a step function,
1 kg increase doesn’t imply
an order of magnitude in safety
This curve is not based on
arbitrary assumptions,
but it is derived from correlation
of total UAV energy and
fuel capacity with weight
ARMAEREO
34
UAV SAFETY REQUIREMENTS
(15;1E-4)
(150;1E-5)
(750;1E-5)
(4000;1E-6)
1,E-07
1,E-06
1,E-05
1,E-04
1,E-03
0,1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000
Maximum Take-Off Weight [kg]
Cu
mu
lati
ve
Pro
ba
bilit
y C
ata
str
op
hic
[/f
lh]
MICRO MINI LIGHT TACTICAL STRATEGIC
0,0015 / MTOW
0,0813 / (MTOW)1,36
IN ORDER TO FLY IN ITALY WITHOUT ANY POPULATION DENSITY RESTRICTION,
A UAV SHALL COMPLY WITH THIS SAFETY REQUIREMENT
In case of not
compliance,
Population Density
Restrictions shall be
imposed accordingly
ARMAEREO
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UAV SAFETY REQUIREMENTS
1,E-07
1,E-06
1,E-05
1,E-04
1,E-03
0,1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000
Maximum Take-Off Weight [kg]
Cu
mu
lati
ve
Pro
ba
bilit
y C
ata
str
op
hic
[/f
lh]
MICRO MINI LIGHT TACTICAL STRATEGIC
150 kg
4000 kg
Areas of population
density limitations
ARMAEREO
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
NATIONAL REGULATION
SAFETY REQUIREMENTS
GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE
SAFETY REQUIREMENTS - THE FUTURE
CONCLUSIONS
ARMAEREO
37
CONCLUSIONS
Italy routinely operates UAVs within a robust regulatory framework
UAVs Airworthiness is assessed with STANAG 4671 Ed 2,
STANAG 4703 (<150kg); STANAG 4702 (rotorcraft)
For a UAV > 4000kg (designed with 1E-5 cumulative probability of
catastrophic event) it is demonstrated that huge benefit (in terms
of lives and cost) derives from designing UAVs with 1E-6
requirement
Italy has a strong reservation against STANAG 4671.1309 (safety)
requirement, which is 1E-5/fh cumulative probability of
catastrophic event from UAVs with MTOW 150 kg up to 20000 kg
NATIONAL
REGULATION
SAFETY
REQUIREMENTS
GEOGRAPHICAL
SAFETY CASE CONCLUSIONS
- UNCLASSIFIED -
ARMAEREO
38
ITALIAN MINISTRY OF DEFENCE
DGAA – DIREZIONE GENERALE DEGLI ARMAMENTI AERONAUTICI (AIR ARMAMENTS GENERAL DIRECTORATE)
Any Questions?
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