migration and the irish labour market since eu enlargement brian mccormick economist fas
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Overview
• Brief Literature Overview• Immigration Trends• Profile of EU10 workers• Absorption & Segmentation
Summary of pre-enlargement literature
Lack of research (Ruhs, 2005)
Immigration reduced wages (Barrett et al, 2006)
In 2004, immigrants earning 18% less (Barrett &
McCarthy, 2006)
Immigration main adjustment mechanism
(Honohan & Leddin, 2006)
Nationality of non-Irish in employment, 2005-2006
Source: CSO
2005 2007
UK 24.5% 16.6%
Rest of EU 15 14.0% 11.2%
EU 10 31.8% 48.6%
Rest of the World
29.7% 23.6%
Post-enlargement migration trendPPSN Allocations to EU10
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000Peak?
Sectoral Employment Growth by Nationality Since Enlargement
- 40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
000s
Non- Irish
Irish
Total
Labour demand has been strong
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
FAS Vacancies 2003-2006
Work Permit
Non-Work Permit
…..but shortages have been bearable
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Jul-
02
Jan-03
Jul-
03
Jan-04
Jul-
04
Jan-05
Jul-
05
Jan-06
Jul-
06
Jan-07
%
EU10 Earning Less
726
660
557
419
407
0100200300400500600700800
€
Con
stru
ctio
n(u
nsk
illed
)
Ret
ail
Man
ufa
ctu
rin
g
Acc
omod
atio
n&
Cat
erin
g
EU
10
Annual Average Earnings 2005
Occupational DistributionFigure 2.11: Average Weekly Earnings of EU10 Workersin 2005 by Month of Arrival
330340350360370380390400410420430
Absorption & Segmentation• Immigration has complemented Irish skills set• Displacement not a major issue
Doyle et al (2006), FAS (2006)• Is segmentation an issue? (low-skill, low-pay)• Risks increase in a slowdown• Minimum wage risk for low-skill occupations
(Fitzgerald et al (2007): • Can & should EU10 migration be influenced?
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