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MEXICO ENERGY OUTLOOK
RAFAEL ALEXANDRI RIONDA
GENERAL DIRECTOR FOR ENERGY PLANNING AND INFORMATION
Ku-Maloob-Zaap & Ayatsil-
Tekel
Cantarell
Explotation (without Ku-
Maloob-Zaap, Cantarell,
Lakach and ATG)
Aceite Terciario del Golfo
Exploration (without deep
waters)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Expected crude oil production
(kbd)
To refineries in Mexico
Exports
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Expected crude oil exports
(kbd)
Crude oil production and exports are expected to
increase as a result of the recent Energy Reform
2014
Bids (rounds) Export from
private parties
Source: SENER
Petroleum products demand by Sector
(kbd)
2013 2028
Regarding oil demand, it is expected that transport
sector will remain as the most important
Transport 1,058.9
Power 224.0
Industry 90.7
Oil 51.2
Transport 1,774.8
Power 37.3
Industry 121.2
Oil 26.0
Source: SENER
Where: 2013 2028
Transport sector 1,058.9 1,774.8
Automotive 972.2 1,612.7
Rail 12.7 25.3
Marine 13.8 20.8
Air 60.2 116.1
Power 224.0 37.3
Public generation 201.2 16.7
Private electricity generation 22.8 20.6
Gasoline and diesel demand, imports,
and production keep on growing
Diesel demand, imports and
production
(kbd)
Gasoline demand, imports and production
(kbd)
Even with the additional coking
capacity in the existing refineries,
imports will raise due to demand
increase.
107159 171
7284
84 106 131126 139
139
101 12298 116 136
313.4
257.5 253.9
370.2 377.8 399.4 395.4 387.2
408.4 412.9 432.8
486.5 485.6
530.4 531.8 528.1
414 417 425442
462483
501518
535552
572588
608628
648 664
26 38 40 16 18 17 21 25 24 25 24 17 2016 18 21
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Imports Production Demand Imports share (%)
358 334 336272 291 328 371 388 444
503531
517 567564 604 629
425.1 442.8 436.7
508.9 517.4 513.1 508.9 521.3 515.4 514.9 549.1
603.5 603.4 650.7 650.1 650.5
788 776 773 781809
841880
910960
1,0181,080
1,1201,170
1,2151,254 1,279
45 43 44 35 36 39 42 43 46 49 49 46 4846 48 49
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Imports Production Demand Imports share (%)
Source: SENER
Natural gas production and imports
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Natural gas production (mmcfd)
In 2028, Pemex
expected natural gas
production will be 5,231
mmcfd, and private
parties will account
2,516 mmcfd.
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Natural gas imports (mmcfd)
LNG Pipeline
Natural gas imports by
pipeline will increase from
1,756 mmcfd in 2013 to 4,524
mmcfd in 2028 (258%).
LNG imports will decrease
almost 90%.
Private
Pemex
Source: SENER
Natural Gas foreign commerce by
interconnection points
Interconnection points 2013
Total Imports 2,516.6
Imports by pipeline 1,755.5
1. Mexicali, BC.
21.3
2. Los Algodones, BC.
255.2
3. Nogales, Son.
0.9
4. Naco, Son.
72.5
5. Naco, Son.
44.6
6. Agua Prieta, Son.
11.4
7. Ciudad Juárez, Chih.
308.8
8. Ciudad Acuña, Coah.
1.2
9. Piedras Negras, Coah.
19.1
10. Ciudad Mier, Tamps.
370.5
11. Argüelles, Tamps. (Kinder
Morgan)
208.9
12. Reynosa, Tamps. (Tetco)
24.7
13. Reynosa, Tamps. (Tennessee
Gas, PMX)
202.0
14. Reynosa, Tamps. (Tennessee
Gas, RB)3
214.4
LNG Imports
761.1
16. Altamira, Tamps.
356.8
17. Ensenada, BC.
34.0
18. Manzanillo, Col.
370.3
Total exports
12.4
Ciudad Morelos, BC.
9.3
Reynosa, Tamps.
3.1
More than 50% of natural
gas total imports are
through Tamaulipas.
Pemex
Private
Import points
Export points
Import and
export points
MANZANILLO
Naco
Mexicali
Argüelles
Los Algodones
Nogales
Agua Prieta
Cd. Juarez
Cd. Acuña
Piedras Negras
Ciudad Mier- Monterrey
Reynosa-
Tennessee
Reynosa-Tetco
ENSENADA
Cd. Morelos
ALTAMIRA
Source: SENER
New infrastructure: Natural gas pipelines
Current natural gas pipelines
New pipelines considered in
The National Infraestructure
Program
Natural gas pipelines network is
projected to almost double fold in
extension. This will increase the
capacity for imports from the United
States.
Source: Cenagas
Tuxpan
Tula
V. Reyes
Guadalajara
Aguascalientes
La Laguna
El Encino Texas
Naranjos
Durango
Cempoala
Los
Ramones
Presidio/Ojinaga
Jáltipan
Salina
Cruz
Mérida Cancún
Tapachula
Lázaro
Cárdenas
Acapulco
Los
Algodones San Luis Río
Colorado
Escobedo
Ehrenberg
San Isidro
Colombia
Sásabe
Samalayuca
Brownsville
Nueces
Waha
Oil
2,272
Industrial
1,240
Electric
3,323
Residential
87
Service
28
Auto
transport
2
Oil
2,456
Industrial
2,630
Electric
6,345
Residential
116
Service
46 Auto
transport
3
2013
6,952
2028
11,595
Expected natural gas demand, 2028
Natural gas demand in
the electricity and
industrial sectors will
double.
Gas demand by consumption sector
(mmcfd)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
mmcfd
Demand
Production
Source: SENER
Electric sector goals
Clean generation percentage in the total generation
Source: Ley para el Aprovechamiento de Energías Renovables y el Financiamiento de la Transición Energética (LAERFTE) y Dictamen de la
Ley de Transición Energética, publicado en el DOF el 14 de diciembre de 2014.
2012
≈14%
2021
30%
2024
35%
2012
≈17%
2018
≈25%
2050
50%
2030
40%
• Any fossil fuel based plant that has carbon capture and storage technology.
• Hydro.
• Nuclear.
• Any renewable energy source (wind, solar, bioenergy, among others).
• Efficient cogeneration (the term applies to cogeneration plants that comply with
the Energy Regulatory Commission definition).
Clean generation includes the following generation technologies:
Installed generation capacity
• In 2029 natural gas based technologies
will account for 47%.
Electricity sector
Combined cycle 35.6%
Conventional thermal 20.1%
Hydro 19.0%
Coal 8.2%
Turbogas 7.3%
Wind 3.1% Nuclear
2.1%
Internal combustion
2.0%
Geothermal 1.2%
Fluidizide bed 0.9%
Bioenergy 0.3%
Solar 0.1%
Combined cycle 43.4%
Hydro 16.2%
Wind 12.7%
Cogeneration 6.8%
Nuclear 5.2% Coal
3.7%
Turbogas 3.3%
Conventional thermal 2.9%
Geothermal 2.1%
Solar 1.7%
Combustión Interna 1.2%
Fluidizide bed 0.5%
Bioenergy 0.3%
2029
110,443 MW
2014
65,451 MW • Clean energy will account for 38% of the
total capacity in 2029.
• There is a mayor reduction of the
conventional thermal capacity (20% to
3%).
Source: Prodesen
Total generation by source
2014-2029
• Phase out of generation plants that use fuel oil, replacing them with natural gas plants.
• A rapid increase in the share of renewables.
• Increase the share of nuclear generation.
The key elements in order to achieve the target of greenhouse gases
reduction are:
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
GW
h
Natural gas
Diesel Fuel oil Coal
Uranium
Hydro
Wind
Geothermal
Solar
Biofuels
Source: Prodesen
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Gross consumption AAGR= 3.5%
0
100
200
300
400
500
Gross consumption AAGR= 2.7%
GDP AAGR (2014-2028)= 4.0%GDP AAGR (2004-2014)= 2.6%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Gross consumption growth rate GDP (2008 prices) growth rate
Gross consumption AAGR= 3.5%
0
100
200
300
400
500
Gross consumption AAGR= 2.7%
GDP AAGR (2014-2028)= 4.0%GDP AAGR (2004-2014)= 2.6%
Electricity sales and GDP
2014-2029
Electricity consumption has shown a strong correlation with GDP, this trend is
expected to keep on towards the future.
GWh Growth rate
(%)
Source: Prodesen
Electricity gross
consumption
500
7.0% 500
AAGR: Annual Average Growth Rate
MEXICO ENERGY OUTLOOK
GRACIAS
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