merritt's peninsula market update: february, 2013

Merritt’s Market Update

Monterey Peninsula

February, 2013

©2012 Merritt Ringer

Read, Seen, or Heard

Here’s an chart that speaks volumes about recent

American history:

Source: Institute for Research on Labor & Employment, UC Berkeley

Table of Contents

The Big Picture…………………….…….………... 3

Inventories…………………...…….…….………... 4

Prices…………………………………….………… 5

Financing………………………………….……….. 6

Carmel………………………………...….….…… 7-8

Carmel Valley…………………………..….……… 9-10

Pebble Beach………………………...……….…… 10-11

Pacific Grove…………………………….…….…..12-13

Monterey…………………………………....….…..14-15

Monterey-Salinas Corridor………………...……. 16-17

Seaside & Marina ………………………...……… 18-19

An Agents Life …………………...….…...…….…..20

End Note …………………………………………....21

Caveat: I’m no economist (despite the performance of

most, this is not a boast). I also lack the gift of prophecy;

from the evidence, I’m not alone. But our real estate

market is buffeted and buoyed by all manner of larger

forces, so I do watch the horizons. I also dig into our

local market. The information here is as reliable as I can

make it, but nothing like comprehensive.

THE BIG PICTURE

U.S. existing home inventory for sale:

U.S. existing home sale prices:

INVENTORY

We hear a lot about how inventory has declined. The chart below shows how

relative this is. Inventories have fallen a lot from the peaks of the financial crisis.

But they’re higher than in the hot market early last decade.

Monterey Peninsula: 2003-201

In each of the sections ahead, you can take a similar long view of the local markets

that interest you.

PRICES

Below is a chart of the average closed sales prices, per square foot, of Monterey

Peninsula homes from 2003 through 2012. These numbers, though a bit crude, are

a fair proxy for our market as a whole. They show that prices generally have

fallen about 35-40% from the peak.

In the sections that follow, you can look at the impact the crisis had on prices in

the markets that interest you. Note that prices have stabilized, or are climbing a

bit, in most markets.

FINANCING

Rates

Rates fluctuate by the second and different lenders offer various packages, so the

numbers below are just a snapshot.

The rates below are for loans without points.

Up to $417,000

30 year fixed: 3.5%

5/1 ARM: 2.675%

Jumbo (over $483,000 here)

30 year fixed: 4%

5/1 ARM: 2.75%

The addition of a point reduces the rate .125-.250%.

CARMEL: 10 YEARS OF INVENTORY & PRICES

Carmel prices are down generally 30-35%.

CARMEL CLOSED HIGH & LOW

This chic contemporary home in Carmel Meadows took top spot. With vast views

of Pt. Lobos & Monastery Beach, this 3,500 sf home had great sleek charm. In

2010, it sold for $4.550M. It just sold again for $4.5M.

This is what the bottom of our market looks like today: a 1,156 sf 2Bd/2Ba home

at the intersection of Forest & Mountain View. It sold without hitting the open

market for $700K.

CARMEL VALLEY: 10 YEARS OF INVENTORY & PRICES

CARMEL VALLEY CLOSED HIGH & LOW

On Carmel Valley Rd., a bit west of Boronda. Said the listing agent: “2 bed

3 bath contemporary main house retains original charm but is fully functional &

features a 1 bed 1 bath attached guest unit or office space PLUS a 1 bed 1 bath

detached guest house built in 2001.” It had 3.276 acres, a pool, and almost 4 acres.

It sold for $1.345M.

A bank-owned home, also on Carmel Valley Road (near Schulte) offered

3Bd/2.5Ba and just over 1600 sf on an acre. It sold a little over the asking price

for $421K.

PEBBLE BEACH: 10 YEARS OF INVENTORY & PRICES

PEBBLE BEACH CLOSED HIGH & LOW

On Porque Lane, between the Lodge & Cypress Point, this single-level home had

been extensively rebuilt about a decade ago. It offered 3Bd/2.5Ba, in 3,905 sf, on

over 1 1/2 acres. It sold in 9 days for $2.950M.

On Lookout Rd, near Forest Lake, this single-level ranch, with 2500 sf, & 4 Bd/2.5

Ba, faced greenbelt. It was a bit dated. They started by asking $980K; after 539

days of trying, they closed for $800K.

PACIFIC GROVE: 10 YEARS OF INVENTORY & PRICES

PACIFIC GROVE CLOSED HIGH & LOW

On 11th, near the shore, this 15 year-old 3Bd/2.5Ba home had almost 2100 sf. In

2006, it sold for $1.145M; in 2010, it sold for $875K; it just closed for $775K, a

fall from its peak of about a third.

Del Monte Park captured the bottom with this home on Presidio. It had a mere one

bedroom and one bath in 632 sf, The agent valiantly claimed charm but little was

evident. It was bank-owned and sold for $265K.

MONTEREY: 10 YEARS OF INVENTORY & PRICES

MONTEREY CLOSED HIGH & LOW

An updated home on Doud got the top price last month. It boasted 5Bd/3Ba in

over 3,000 sf with lots of tall ceilings. It sold near the asking price in just over a

month for $775K.

A 1Br/1Ba condo took the bottom spot with a full-priced sale of $92.5K.

MONTEREY-SALINAS CORRIDOR: 10 YEARS OF INVENTORY & PRICES

(east to San Benancio)

MONTEREY-SALINAS CLOSED HIGH & LOW

In Villa Oaks, a small gated community off San Benancio, this 5 year old home had

4600 sf, 5Bd/4.5Ba. It sold in 2009 for $1.3M. It just closed again for $1.325M.

Also off San Benancio, on Harper Canyon Rd., this home offered 3Bd/2Ba in

1,779 sf. It sold fast for $448.5K.

SEASIDE & MARINA: Average Price/ Sq. Ft.

Marina prices/sq. ft.

Seaside prices/sq. ft.

Marina’s highest closing was a short-sale on Quebrada Del Mar Road. It was 24

years old, almost 2100 sf, & it had 4Bd/2.5Ba. In 2001, it closed for $465K. It

just sold again for $385K.

Seaside Highlands, our perennial holder of the top spot, snagged it again with this

sale. A 5,700 sf home with 4Bd/2.5Ba, it sold for $651K.

MARINA & SEASIDE CLOSED HIGH

An Agent’s Life

Carmel Valley on a rainy winter’s day.

Thank your for taking a few minutes with my e-magazine. Your com-

ments & questions are welcome. Let me know about issues you’d like to

see addressed here or stories and facts you’d like others to know.

Know anyone thinking of buying or selling, someone who would benefit

from informed & straight counsel? Please keep me in mind. Referrals

like yours are the heart of my practice.

© Merritt Ringer 2012

Merritt’s Market Update

©2013 Merritt Ringer