meeting the growing demand for energy – onshore and ...– onshore and offshore...

International Foundation for the Law of the SeaSummer Academy

Meeting the growing demand for energy – onshore and offshore developments

Peter M Swift

Meeting the growing demand for energy –onshore and offshore developments

• Introduction• Energy demand• Oil production• Oil and gas locations• Offshore oil• Natural Gas• Coal• Nuclear• Renewables

– offshore wind, wave & tidal

International Association of Independent Tanker Owners

260 + members:> 80% of the independent oil tanker fleet and > 85% of the chemical

carrier fleet

300 + associate members:in oil and chemical tanker related businesses

15 Committees - 4 Regional PanelsRepresentative Offices in Europe, US and Asia

One of the Association’s primary goals:Lead the continuous improvement of the Tanker Industry’s

performance in striving to achieve the goals of:Zero fatalities, Zero pollution, Zero detentions

SHIP OWNER OIL COMPANY SPOKESMAN

The Rogues of the Oil Tanker Industry

World Energy Consumption

Major Driver – Population Growth

Source: Douglas-Westwood, 2007

World energy consumption 1965 - 2006million tonnes oil equivalents

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

Oil Gas Coal

Nuclear Hydro

Regional Primary Energy Consumption Pattern 2006

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007

Oil Consumption by Area 1981-2006

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007

World oil consumption - mbd

Based on BP/IEA

0

5

10

15

20

25

3019

65

1969

1973

1977

1981

1985

1989

1993

1997

2001

2005

2009

010

20304050

607080

90100

N America

S&C America

Europe

Middle East

Africa

Asia Pacific

World

Projection

Oil Production by Area 1981-2006

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007

World oil production - mbd

0

5

10

15

20

25

3019

65

1969

1973

1977

1981

1985

1989

1993

1997

2001

2005

2009

N AmericaS&C AmericaEurope/FSUMiddle EastAfricaAsia Pacific

Projection

Based on BP/IEA

World Oil and Gas 2007

Source: CRSL Offshore and Gas Database

North America / Gulf of Mexico

Source: CRSL Offshore and Gas Database

South America / Caribbean

Source: CRSL Offshore and Gas Database

South America / East Coast

Source: CRSL Offshore and Gas Database

Northern Europe

Source: CRSL Offshore and Gas Database

World Oil and Gas 2007

Europe / Mediterranean

Source: CRSL Offshore and Gas Database

Middle East / FSU

Source: CRSL Offshore and Gas Database

West Africa

Source: CRSL Offshore and Gas Database

Asia - Pacific

Source: CRSL Offshore and Gas Database

Australasia

Source: CRSL Offshore and Gas Database

Onshore OIL Production to 2020

Source: Energyfiles / Douglas-Westwood, 2005

Offshore OIL Production to 2020

Source: Energyfiles / Douglas-Westwood, 2005

World Onshore/Offshore Oil Production (mb/d)

Source: Oil & Gas Journal, March 2007

Largest Offshore Oil Producing Regions 2005

Production Start-up

Daily Production

(mb/d)

Cumulative Production (Bb)

Crude OilPersian Gulf/ME 1957 5.3 51North Sea 1975 4.7 45West Africa 1969 3.5 25Mexico GoM 1960 2.6 20Asia/Australasia 1960 2.1 21US GoM 1947 1.6 24Brazil 1973 1.5 6China 1980 0.6 2Caspian 1950 0.4 1Russia/Artic 1999 0.05 0Others 0.8 2Total NGLs 1.6 7World Offshore 25 204Source: Oil & Gas Journal, March 2007

Global Subsea MarketWater Depth

Source: Infield, 2007

Deep & Ultra Deepwater1989-2010

Source: Infield, 2007

Global Offshore Production Outlook (kb/d)

Source: Oil & Gas Journal, March 2007

Crude Oil Prices Since 1861

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007

Oil Production Peak

Source: World Gas Supply Report / World Oil Supply Report -Energyfiles / Douglas-Westwood, 2007

2030 118 mm bpd( EIA Forecast June ‘06)

Natural Gas Consumption by Area1981-2006

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007

Natural Gas Production by Area1981-2006

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007

Onshore GAS Production to 2020

Source: Energyfiles / Douglas-Westwood, 2005

Offshore GAS Production to 2020

Source: Energyfiles / Douglas-Westwood, 2005

Gas Production Forecast

Source: World Gas Supply Report - Energyfiles / Douglas-Westwood, 2007

LNG Exports

Source: Douglas-Westwood, 2007

LNG Exports - Forecast

Source: Douglas-Westwood, 2007

Proved Natural Gas Reservesat end 2006

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007

Coal Production – Coal Consumption

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007

Nuclear Energy Consumption by Area 1981-2006

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007

Renewables13.1%

Gas 20.9%

Coal 25.1%

Oil 34.3%

Non-Renew. Waste 0.2%

Other 0.5%

Hydro 2.2%

Renewable Combustibles

and Waste10.4%

Nuclear 6.5%

Fuel Shares of World Total Primary Energy Supply, 2004

Geothermal 0.414%

Solar 0.039%Wind 0.064%

Tide, 0.0004%

Source: IEA Renewables in Global Energy Supply 2007

• Hydro• Onshore wind• Offshore wind• Biomass • Solar power • Geothermal • Wave & tidal

Renewable Energy

Offshore Wind

Offshore Wind Farm

(1) Pile and erosion protection in the seabed (top of the foundation is painted a bright colour to make it visible to ships)

(2) Rotating aerodynamically shaped blades (2) makes them rotate around a horizontal hub, which is connected to a shaft inside the nacelle

(3) Shaft that powers a generator to convert the energy into electricity.(4) Subsea cables (5) Offshore Transformer(6) Grid at a substation on land

Source: British Wind Energy Association (BWEA), 2007

Offshore WindCapital Expenditure 2002-2011

• 2007-2011: USD11.8bn

• European Dominated Market: UK USD6.8bn / Denmark USD2.3bn / Germany USD1.8bn

• Annual Capex USD3.8bn by 2011

• Costs continue to increase

Source: The World Offshore Wind Report, Douglas-Westwood, 2007

The “London Array”

• 5.5 x bigger than current largest farm: Nysted, Denmark (165 MW)

• 271 turbines, 1 GW electricity (could supply 25% of London’s homes)

• Will cover a sea area of 245 sq.km., sited in the Thames estuary

• Four build phases, construction to start in 2008

Wave & Tidal

Current, Wave & Tide Technologies

Marine (Current) Turbines Pelamis (Waves)

SMD Hydrovision (Tidal) Stingray (Tidal)

Oscillating Water Column (Waves)Source: BWEA, 2007

Wave and TidalCapital Expenditure 2000-2008

Source: The World Wave and Tidal Database, Douglas-Westwood, 2007

THANK YOU

For more information, please visit:www.intertanko.com

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