materi seminar internasional #dc2013 oleh ali muhammad

The Proliferation of Nuclear Weapon:

an introductory notes

DR ALI MUHAMMAD Diplomatic Course KOMAHI

universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta

Global security:The Proliferation of Nuclear weapons

It is global security problem, The spread of nuclear weapons

Horizontal proliferation: spread from one country to other countries

Vertical proliferation: increase of nuclear arsenals and destructive capability

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The first nuclear weapon state: the United States of America, 1945

“Little Boy” – bomb dropped on Hiroshima. 15 kiloton bomb (the equivalent of 15,000 tons of TNT). est. 150,000 dead

“Fat Man” – 20 kiloton bomb used on Nagasaki.est. 75,000 person dead

Horizontal Proliferation (1): “Original” Nuclear Weapons States

After the USA, other states go nukes

The Soviet Union 1949

U.K. 1952

France 1961

China 1964

Horizontal Proliferation (2)others joined the “Nuclear Club”

India 1974 /1998

Pakistan 1998

North Korea 2006

Israel 1967

Possibly, Iran? 2016 ?

Welcome to the “Nuclear Club”!

Welcome to the Nuclear Club!

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Vertical Proliferation

Vertical Proliferation

1960s ICBMs with multiple warheads.

Why do state go Nuclear?

CONTEXT: ANARCHICAL WORLD

Perception of threat Prestige & Ambition Isolation Autonomy Domestic Interests

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How to prevent Nuclear Proliferation? NPT Regime, 1968

Effort to prevent new countries from acquiring nuclear weapons.

NPT only allowed the five existing nuclear weapons states to have nuclear weapons.

Those five states with nuclear weapons agreed:

1. Not to transfer nuclear weapons technology or materials to any non-nuclear weapons state.

2. To “pursue negotiations” towards nuclear disarmament.

How to prevent Nuclear Proliferation?

NPT Regime, 1968: Non-weapons states agreed not to acquire nukes

In return, guaranteed access to Nuclear technology for the

the peaceful production of nuclear power.

How to prevent Nuclear Proliferation?

All countries that sign the NPT must agree to permit inspections by the IAEA.

Job of IAEA is to monitor compliance with the NPT.

IAEA Inspections

“Good boys”Recent Signatories to the NPT regime:

Joined as non-nuclear states when Soviet Union broke up: Belarus Kazakhstan Ukraine

Ended active nuclear weapons programs: Taiwan South Africa Brazil Argentina Algeria Iraq Libya

“Bad Boys”Non-Signatories to the NPT

Only three countries have refused to join the NPT:

IndiaPakistanIsrael

One country withdrew from the NPT in 2003:

North Korea

One member currently considered in violation of treaty:

Iran

Regional Efforts: Non Proliferation Regime

Southeast Asia: Southeast Asian Nuclear-Weapon-Free-

Zone (SEANWFZ) 1997

Latin America: The Treaty of tlatelolco, 1969

South Pacific: The Rarotongan Treaty 1975

Anti Nuclear Movement

Review

What is Nuclear Proliferation?Why do states go Nuclear?What is NPT? What is the Purpose?

Which Countries Are Permitted To Have Nuclear Weapons?

The Five Existing Nuclear Weapons States Agreed To What?

Non-weapons States Agreed To What? In Return For What?

What Is The IAEA? Four Countries Not Part Of The NPT?

Regional efforts to prevent Proliferation?

THANK YOU

TERIMA KASIH