macroeconomic situation, annual data
Post on 07-Jul-2018
220 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
-
8/19/2019 Macroeconomic Situation, Annual Data
1/15
MACROECONOMIC SITUATION OF
NEPAL
(Based on Annual Data of FY 20!"2#
Se$te%&e' 20!)
*at+%andu Ne$al
-
8/19/2019 Macroeconomic Situation, Annual Data
2/15
Mone, Su$$l,
The broad money supply (M2)
increased by 3.8 percent in the first
five months of FY 20!"# in
comparison to increase of $.%
percent in the correspondin& period
of the previous year 'hereas the
narro' money supply (M) decreased
by 0. percent in comparison to
decrease of %.8 percent in the
correspondin& period of previous
year.
M-d./ul, 20! M-d./ul, 20!)0
4
8
12
16
20
24
!1!!11
!
!1
3'o4t+ -n Mone, Su$$l,
B'oad Mone, (M2# Na''o4 Mone, (M!#
n other hand the hi&her &ro'th in inflo's of remittance and decelerated imports has led to
e*pansion of the net forei&n assets in the revie' period. n revie' period the +F, increased by
-s. !!.8# billion till mid/uly 20# that had increased by -s. 2$.3 billion in correspondin&
period of the previous FY. n percenta&e terms the +F, increased by 2!.2 this period a&ainst
an increase of 2$.2 in the previous year.
Do%est-5 C'ed-t
-
8/19/2019 Macroeconomic Situation, Annual Data
3/15
The increase in net claims on the
private sector and the financial
institutions has resulted in the &ro'th of
domestic credit. The domestic credit
has increased by !.1 durin& the
revie' period in comparison to 2.$
increase in the previous fiscal year.
imilarly the claims on the private
sector increased by 1.! as a&ainst
increase of 8.3 in the previous year.
n other hand the reserve money rose
by !.3 durin& the revie' period.uch reserve money had increased by
23.3 in the previous FY.
M-d./ul, 20!
M-d./ul, 20!)
0 ) !0 !) 20 2)
!2
!1
!67
!1
Do%est-5 C'ed-t S-tuat-on
Do%est-5 C'ed-t
Cla-%s on P'-8ate Se5to'
De$os-t Mo&-l-9at-on and C'ed-t Flo4s of F-nan5-al
Inst-tut-onsn a year on year basis the deposit mobili4ation of 5Fs increased by 20. or -s. 282.0%
billion in the revie' period. uch deposits had &ro'n by 8.! or -s. 28.%8 billion durin& the
correspondin& period of the previous FY. The deposit mobili4ation of the 6ommercial 5an7s
and evelopment 5an7s has increased by 2.! and #.2 respectively 'hereas the deposit
mobili4ation of the Finance 6ompanies decreased by 0.% durin& the revie' period. uch
deposit had increased by $.8 21. and #.$ respectively for 6ommercial 5an7s
evelopment 5an7s and Finance 6ompanies.
M-d./ul, 20! M-d./ul, 20!)
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
!620!
3'o4t+ -n De$os-t Mo&-l-9at-on (:#
C o % % e ' 5 - a l
B a n
; s
D e 8 e
l o $ %
e n t B
a n ; s
F - n a
n 5 e C o
% $ a
n - e s
-505
1015202530
35
!6
21!
)
2!
)2
-0.6
C'ed-t 3'o4t+ of BFIs (:#
M-d./ul, 20! M-d./ul, 20!)
2
-
8/19/2019 Macroeconomic Situation, Annual Data
4/15
9oans and advances of 5Fs increased by $.# percent (-s. 221.30 billion) in the revie' year
compared to a &ro'th of !.! percent (-s. %#.!8 billion) in the previous year. n the revie'
period loans and advances of 6ommercial 5an7s evelopment 5an7s and Finance
6ompanies increased by 8.8 percent 3.# percent and 0.3 percent respectively.
C o m
m e r c i a l
B a n k s
D e v
e l o p
m e n
t B a n k s
F i n a n
c e C o m
p a n i e s
02468
1012141618
20 !66
!7)
07
'ed-t 3'o4t+ of BFIs (:# t-ll %-d./ul, 20!
M-d./ul, 20! M-d./ul, 20!)
0
50
100
150
200
250
!
C'ed-t >o4s f'o% BFIs
C'ed-t >o4s to $'-8ate se5to'
9i7e'ise credit to the private sector from 5Fs increased by 1.8 percent (-s. 22.% billion) in
the revie' year compared to an increase of 8.$ percent (-s. $%.! billion) in the previous
year. n the revie' year private sector credit from 6ommercial 5an7s evelopment 5an7s and
Finance 6ompanies increased by 22 percent % percent and 0.! percent respectively.
5Fs: credit e*posure to the industrial production construction 'holesale and retail trade
sho's a remar7able &ro'th in the revie' year. 6redit to the industrial production sector
increased by -s. 32.81 billion (!.8 percent) in the revie' year compared to an increase of -s.
32.0 billion (%.8 percent) in the previous year. 9i7e'ise credit to the construction sector
increased by -s. 33.3 billion (2$.1 percent) the 'holesale and retail trade sector by -s. #3.23
billion (2.8 percent) and the transportation communication and public service sector by -s.
2.$# billion (2$.0 percent) durin& the revie' year.
3
-
8/19/2019 Macroeconomic Situation, Annual Data
5/15
The credit to the construction
sector 'holesale and retail trade
sector and transportation
communication and public service
sector had increased by -s. 23.!1
billion (2!.# percent) -s. !#.1!
billion (23.2 percent) and -s. 3.!#
billion ($.1 percent) respectively in
the previous year. n the revie'
year credit to the a&riculture
sector increased by -s. !.2#
billion (28.0 percent) compared toan increase of -s. .3 billion
(28.0 percent) in the previous year.
I n d u
s t ' - a
l S e 5
t o '
C o n s t ' u
5 t - o n S e
5 t o '
A ? ' - 5
u l t u ' e
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
!
-
8/19/2019 Macroeconomic Situation, Annual Data
6/15
M-d./ul, 20! M-d./ul, 20!)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
200<
7
!!0<
22ei&hted avera&e interest rate spread of commercial ban7s inched do'n
to !.% percent in the revie' month from #.2 percent a year a&o and the avera&e base rate
came do'n to $.88 percent from 8.3% percent a year a&o.
Se5u'-t-es Ma';et Nat-onal a?e Sala', and In>at-on
+?@? inde* decreased by $.2 percent to
1%.2 points in mid/uly 20#. The inde* had
increased by 11.1 percent to 03%. points a
year a&o. The stoc7 mar7et capitali4ation
decreased by %.! percent to -s. 181.!0 billion
in mid/uly 20#. The ratio of mar7et
capitali4ation to A@ stood at !%.% percent in
mid/uly 20# compared to #!.! percent a
year a&o.
M-d./ul, 20! M-d./ul, 20!)42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56)
-
8/19/2019 Macroeconomic Situation, Annual Data
7/15
f the total mar7et capitali4ation as of mid/uly 20# the share of 5an7s and Financial
nstitutions (includin& insurance companies) stood at $$.$ percent. Bydropo'er manufacturin&
and processin& companies hotels tradin& and others recorded a share of $.0 percent 3.0
percent 2.# percent 0. percent and 1.% percent respectively.
BFIs (-n5lud-n? -nsu'an5e 5o%$an-es# 6:
Manuacturin! an" #rocessin!$ 3%
&'"ropo(er$ )%
&otels$ 3%
Ot+e's !0:
S+a'e on Ma';et Ca$-tal-9at-on (:#
Total number of companies listed at the
+?@? decreased from 23$ in mid/uly
20! to 232 in mid/uly 20#. Mer&er of
some ban7 and financial institutions durin&
this period resulted in a decline in the
number of listed companies. f the total
listed companies the number of ban7s and
financial institutions (includin& insurance
companies) stood at 18 follo'ed by
production and processin& industries (8)hotels (!) business entities (!)
hydropo'er (%) and other companies (2).
BFIs (-n5lud-n? -nsu'an5e 5o%$an-es#
Manufa5tu'-n? and P'o5ess-n?
Bus-ness Ent-t-es
,d'o$o4e'
otels
Ot+e's
0 100 200 300
!16
!6
<
2
Nu%&e's of L-sted Co%$an-es
%
-
8/19/2019 Macroeconomic Situation, Annual Data
8/15
The annual avera&e consumer price
inflation increased by $.2 percent in
20!"# compared to an increase of 1.
percent in 203"!. The inflation remained
belo' the 8.0 percent proat-on (:#
-ll, Re?-ons Te'a-
*at+%andu alle,
The annual avera&e price indices of a&ricultural commodities domestic manufactured
commodities and imported commodities increased by 8.8 percent #.% percent and 0.$ percent
respectively in the revie' year compared to the &ro'th of .3 percent %.0 percent and !.2
percent in the previous year. The annual avera&e salary and 'a&e rate inde* increased by 8.!
percent in 20!"# 'hereas it had increased by 3.$ percent in the previous year. n the revie'
year both the annual avera&e salary inde* and the annual avera&e 'a&e rate inde* rose by the
same rate of 8.! percent compared to an increase of 2#.! percent and . percent
respectively in the previous year. n the revie' year the 'a&e rate inde* of construction
laborers industrial laborers and a&ricultural laborers have increased by 2.1 percent 8.3
percent and $.$ percent respectively.
3o8e'n%ent Bud?et E$end-tu'e and Re8enue
$
-
8/19/2019 Macroeconomic Situation, Annual Data
9/15
n 20!"# revenue mobili4ation of the Aovernment of +epal (Ao+) increased by 3.8 percent
to -s. !0#.8# billion 'hich 'as 1%.0 percent of annual bud&et estimate of -s. !22.10 billion.
The revenue had risen by 20.# percent to -s. 3#%.%2 billion in 203"!. espite the slo'do'n
in economic activities after ,pril earth;ua7e and the deceleration of imports revenue to A@
ratio stood at 1. percent in the revie' year. uch ratio 'as 8.! percent in 203"!. f the
total revenue mobili4ation D,T revenue &re' by .3 percent to -s. 2.#2 billion in 20!"#.
M-d./ul, 20! M-d./ul, 20!)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
7)
-
8/19/2019 Macroeconomic Situation, Annual Data
10/15
Aovernment e*penditure on cash basis
increased by 1.8 percent to -s. !11.1%
billion in 20!"# compared to an increase
of %.3 percent to -s. !$.!$ billion in
203"!. ,n increase in recurrent and
capital e*penditure contributed to such a
&ro'th of total e*penditure durin& the
revie' year. urin& the revie' year
recurrent e*penditure increased by 0.1
percent to -s. 328.18 billion compared to a
&ro'th of 2.$ percent in the precedin&
year.
Re5u''ent E$end-tu'e
Ca$-tal E$end-tu'e
F-nan5-al E$end-tu'e
0 100 200 300 400
328.8
-
8/19/2019 Macroeconomic Situation, Annual Data
11/15
to -s. 1.11 billion in the previous year. The total e*ports decreased due to a fall in e*ports to
ndia 6hina and other countries. ?*ports to ndia dropped by %.3 percent durin& the revie'
year in contrast to an increase of %.1 percent in the previous year. ?*ports to ndia decreased
mainly due to the decrease in the e*ports of 4inc sheet te*tiles cardamom copper 'ire rod
amon& others. imilarly e*ports to 6hina decreased by 2.# percent in the revie' year in
contrast to an increase of 3%.2 percent in the previous year. This decrease is mainly attributed
to the decrease in the e*ports of 'heat flour handicraft &oods a&arbatti pashmina amon&
others. imilarly e*ports to other countries decreased by $.8 percent in the revie' year in
contrast to an increase of 23.1 percent in the previous year.
M-d./ul, 20! M-d./ul, 20!)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
)00
800
00
1!11 6)72
!7
-
8/19/2019 Macroeconomic Situation, Annual Data
12/15
amon& others. 9i7e'ise imports from 6hina increased sharply by 3%.% percent in the revie'
year compared to a &ro'th of $.! percent in the previous year. mports from 6hina increased
due to the increase in the imports of telecommunication e;uipments and parts machinery and
parts chemical fertili4er electrical e;uipments amon& others. imilarly imports from other
countries increased by 2. percent in the revie' year compared to a &ro'th of 28.2 percent in
the previous year. mports from other countries rose mainly due to an increase in the imports of
helicopter"aircraft and spare parts silver medicine crude palm oil amon& others. n = dollar
terms imports from 6hina increased by 3!.1 percent to = .0 billion in the revie' year
compared to an increase of #.2 percent durin& the previous year.
Ind-a C+-na Ot+e's
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
702
!
262
21
7
-
8/19/2019 Macroeconomic Situation, Annual Data
13/15
M a l a , s - a
S a u d
- A ' a & - a
* u 4 a - t
O t + e
' s
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
202626
!27
-
8/19/2019 Macroeconomic Situation, Annual Data
14/15
The forei&n e*chan&e reserve of +-5 increased by 22.8 percent to -s. $02.88 billion at mid
/uly 20# compared to -s. #$2.!0 billion as of mid/uly 20!. The forei&n e*chan&e reserve of
5an7s and Financial nstitutions (e*cept +-5) increased by 30. percent at mid/uly 20# to
-s. 2.00 billion compared to -s. 13.0 billion as of mid/uly 20!. The &ross forei&n
e*chan&e reserves increased by 23.8 percent to -s. 823.8$ billion in mid/uly 20# from -s.
%%#.! billion as of mid/uly 20!. uch reserves had increased by 2!.8 percent in the previous
year. The &ross forei&n e*chan&e reserves in = dollar terms increased by $.! percent to
= 8.# billion in mid/uly 20#. uch reserves had increased by 23.% percent in the previous
year. urin& the revie' year the ndian currency reserve increased by 2%.$ percent to -s
20.28 billion. uch reserves had increased by 2$.! percent in the previous year. 9i7e'ise
convertible forei&n e*chan&e increased by %.% percent to = %.2! billion in the revie' year
'hich 'as increased by 22.1 percent in the previous year.n addition the nternational nvestment @osition (@) sho's that the forei&n assets of +epal
are -s. 8!$.%% billion and the liabilities are -s. !8$.32 billion at mid/uly 20#. ,ccordin&ly the
net @ remained in surplus by -s. 3%0.3# billon 'hich 'as in surplus by -s. 20!.03 billion as
at mid/uly 20!.
Price of il and !old in the International "ar#et and Exchange Rate "ovement
The price of oil (6rude il 5rent) in the international mar7et decreased sharply by !#.3 percent
to = #$.3 per barrel in mid/uly 20# from = 0!.$3 per barrel a year a&o. The
decrease in the price of petroleum product is attributed to the decrease in the demand of the
petroleum products in /apan 6hina and ?uro area coupled 'ith constant production by the
@?6 and increase in production by the =,. imilarly the price of &old declined by 2.%
percent to = !!.!0 per ounce from = 30.00 per ounce a year a&o. +epalese
currency visvis the = dollar depreciated by #.2 percent in mid/uly 20# from the level of
mid/uly 20!. t had depreciated by 0.1 percent in the previous year. The e*chan&e rate per
= dollar remained -s. 0.! in mid/uly 20# compared to -s. 1#.10 in mid/uly 20!.
3
-
8/19/2019 Macroeconomic Situation, Annual Data
15/15
!
top related