lecture 14 3/6/08lecture 142 birthday problem in a classroom of 21 people, what is the probability...
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Lecture 14
3/6/08 Lecture 14 2
Birthday Problem
• In a classroom of 21 people, what is the probability that at least two people have the same birthday?
• Event A: at least two people have the same birthday out of the 21 people.
• AC: every person has a different birthday out of the 21 people.
• P(A)=1-P(AC) =1-(365/365)(364/365)…(345/365)
3/6/08 Lecture 14 3
Birthday problem• What about the probability of exactly one
pair?• n*(n-1)/2*(365/365)(1/365)(364/365)…(365-n+2)/365
Monte Hall Problem
• 3 doors, one prize– Select one door– Host show opens one of the other two doors that
do not contain the prize– You are given a chance to keep the door you
selected or switch to the other non-open door.• What shall I do?
Play on-line
• http://math.ucsd.edu/~crypto/Monty/monty.html
Analysis
• Assumptions:– Initially, each door has the same chance to contain
the price– If selected door contains the price, Monty selects
the door to open at random with equal probability
Setup is important
• I can relabel the doors: – M – the one I selected– L – left door out of the remaining– R – right door out of the remaining
• P(Prize in M)=P(prize in L)=P(prize inR)=1/3• Two events: Open L, Open R
– We need P(Prize in M | Open L)
Calculation
• Draw a tree – explain the situation
Modifications
• Possible modification:– Monty favors a door:
What changes is P(Open L | Price in R) ≠ 1/2– Monty can goof (open a door with the price in it)
The tree changes• In any case switching never hurts
Limitation of mean
• When evaluating games – we often looked at the mean gain as a proxy for understanding the game
• This might be insufficient – In magamillions and powerball the jackpot sometimes
rises so high that the average gain is positive. Q: Is it rational to play?
– Issues: • Adjustment for ties (drops down expected gain
significantly)• How many games one needs to play before winning?
Let’s design a Lottery!
• How to make a lottery?– Define random generating mechanism– Define payoffs
• Makes money on average• Risk is not too bad• How much reserves are needed?
Formats of games
• Genoese type– Draw m balls out of M; players also select m numbers
• UK National lottery 6/49• NC Cash 5: 5/39 (most prices are pari-mutuel)• Powerball 5/59&1/35 (most prices with fixed, jackpot pari-mutuel)
• Keno type– Draw m balls out of M with players select k numbers
• Number type– m digits (0,1,…,9) drawn with replacement – players try to
match numbers in order or out of order• NC pick 3, NC pick 4
Prices
• Fixed price – the winning is determined ahead of time– Simpler to understand / higher risk for lottery
• Pari-mutual – the winners split a predetermined portion of the pot– Harder to sell / no risk to lottery
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