khosla investing in the future

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khosla ventures

Investing in the FutureVinod Khosla

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5 Billion people want to live like 500 Million do today

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We need

incremental and

disruptive

solutions.

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We need

incremental and disruptive

solutions.

Big Companies do

incremental well.

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We need

incremental and disruptive

solutions.

Disruptive challenges

demand disruptive

solutions.

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We need

incremental and disruptive

solutions.

Disruption

is what VCs do well

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“All progress depends upon the unreasonable man”GEORGE BERNARD SHAW

Disruption by

Increments

Evolutiona

ry

pathways

to

revolution

Disruption by

Increments

Adjacent Possibles

Groups

Clusters

Autocatalysis

Evolutiona

ry

pathways

to

revolution

Disruption by

Increments

Cynics never do the impossible, achieve the improbable, take on the inadvisable. Hope is only path to extraordinary success.

CORY BOOKER

(Tweet by NJ Mayor)

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Our willingness to fail gives us

the ability and opportunity to

succeed.

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Our willingness to fail gives us

the ability and opportunity to

succeed.

It is not because things are diffi cult that we do not dare, it is because we do not dare that they are diffi cult.Seneca

“

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Our willingness to fail gives us

the ability and opportunity to

succeed.

Only those who dare fail greatly can achieve greatly.Robert F. Kennedy

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Black Swan

EventsRarity

Extreme impact

Retrospective

Predictability

Chance of Disruptive Impact

Black Swan

Most large company innovation

Most Venture Investments

Accidental Venture

75%

Probability of Technology Succeeding

50%

25%

50%

100%

75% 100%25%

Success vs. Impact

10,000 Intelligent Shots

10 Googles or more!

10,000 Intelligent Shots

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It’s ok to fail as long as it is worth succeeding

Nothing that defies the law of economic gravity can scale

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Nothing that defies the law of economic gravity can scale

Economics matter

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DisruptivePortfolio

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A million year crude production cycle reduced to minutes and market competitive

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Engine that delivers 50%+ vehicle effi ciency atlower cost

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What if coal based electricity could be 75% cleaner and we used 75% less of it? Clean coal without ever taking it out of the ground

What if coal based electricity could be 75% cleaner and we used 75% less of it? Clean coal without ever taking it out of the ground

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Turning problem carbon dioxide into a feedstock for building materials

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No compromise 80% more effi cientpay for itself lighting

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Silicium

Energy

New thermodynamic cycles and thermoelectrics

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5x cheaper grid scale energy storage using only air

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Inexpensive high-density energy storage

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Renewable fuels: Food- ‐grade sugars from any biomass

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Advanced Agriculture –cut fertilizer & pesticide use and increase yields

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New Metals:Reinvent materials science & approach theoretical perfection at large scale

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Winners take (almost) all

The illusion of knowing

The illusion of knowing VS

The illusion of knowing VS

Knowing that we don’t know

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Ignore the

experts.

Heavier‐than‐air flying machines are impossibleLORD KELVINPresident, Royal Society, 1895

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There is no reason for any individuals to have a computer in their homeKen Olsen / President and Founder of DEC, 1977

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Forecast

McKinsey: US Mobile Subscribers

1980 forecast for 2000

ActualForecast

McKinsey: US Mobile Subscribers

1980 forecast for 2000

Yesterday’s technology, tomorrow’s forecast

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Could McKinsey or an analyst

have predicted?

Social Media(Facebook, Twitter)

Climate Change

Arab SpringChina’s RiseBerlin Wall

InternetComputerPhone

Genetic Engineering

Input the measurable

Obscure assumptions

Chasing false precision

Ignore the immeasurable

Forecastin

g Flaws

Experts are poorer forecasters than dart‐ throwing monkeysTetlock Study

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No relation between experience

and accuracy.(Based on thousands of forecasts made by hundreds of experts)

Tetlock study showed:

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Ecosystem, culture and mindsets….

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Any suffi ciently complex mixture of elements will make many if not every possible reaction ‘auto-catalyzed’ by some other element in the mixtureSTUART KAUFFMAN

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Increase odds of auto-

catalysis

Clusters

Density

Attitude

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Engineer your

company’s genes

PLAN

Culture of experimentation

Try frugally and fail fast

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More “tail risk” is a good thing!

Failed tactics….

V S

Failed strategies

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Insurance, option value and risk reduction

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Not for the faint of heart

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Venture assist to succeed

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“The best way to predict the future is to invent itAlan Kay

Thank

Youvk@khoslaventures.co

m

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Salahuddin KhawajaDeveloped and Designed by

salahk@gmail.com

More at Decklaration.com

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Salah has 14 years of experience, primarily in the

Financial Services Industry. Before joining JP Morgan

he spent 11 years at Deloitte & Touche helping Fortune

500 clients with various types of Strategic Initiatives.

He is currently is based in Hong Kong with responsibility

for delivering the next generation platform for Securities

Processing.

Areas of Expertise: Strategy Development, Business

Transformation, System Integration, Program & Project

Management, Mobile Strategy, Data Analytics, Executive

Presentations

Sample Clients: Bank of America, Citi , MasterCard