key 2020 congressional districts · just 37% of voters believe that president trump’s phone call...

Key 2020 Congressional Districts

P R E P A R E D B Y :

Neil Newhouse, Partner October 7, 2019

Methodology

2

On behalf of the NRCC and Team McCarthy, Public Opinion Strategies completed a survey of 800 registered voters in targeted congressional districts nationwide. This survey was broken down into two parts: 40 House seats held by Republicans that need to be defended (GOP Defense) and 55 House seats held by Democrats that Republicans see as an opportunity to win (GOP Offense). (President Trump won 49.6% of the vote in these districts.)

Four hundred respondents were contacted via landline and 400 via cell phone. The survey was conducted October 1-3, 2019 and has a margin of error of +3.46%.

Key Findings

Most voters do not believe that President Trump’s phone call with the Ukrainian President was an impeachable offense.

4

Just 37% of voters believe that President Trump’s phone call with the Ukrainian President was an impeachable offense.

5 Thinking just about this specific case of the President's phone call with the Ukraine President, do you believe that what President Trump did was appropriate, the same as other Presidents have probably done, inappropriate, but not impeachable, or an impeachable offense?

59%

88%

57%

26%

37%

8%

39%

70%

Total GOP(33%)

IND(40%)

DEM(26%)

Appropriate/Not Impeachable Impeachable

+80+22 +18 -44

20%Not Imp.

20%Not Imp.

19%Not Imp.

20%Not Imp.

Democrats in districts won by Trump are poorly positioned in this controversy.

6

7

63%56%

62%

34%39%

33%

NRCC Defense(42%)

NRCC Offense(58%)

Trump Vote/DEM Held(33%)

Appropriate/Not Impeachable Impeachable

+29 +17

Six of ten voters in DEM-held districts won by Trump don’t believe the President’s phone call was an impeachable offense.

Thinking just about this specific case of the President's phone call with the Ukraine President, do you believe that what President Trump did was appropriate, the same as other Presidents have probably done, inappropriate, but not impeachable, or an impeachable offense?

21%Not Imp.

19%Not Imp.

21%Not Imp.

+29

A majority of voters thinks Democrats haven’t accomplished all that much while in control of Congress and believe impeachment will sidetrack them even further.

8

9

38%

58%

Total

A Lot/Some Not Much/Nothing

Voters overwhelmingly don’t believe Democrats have accomplished much while in control of Congress.

As you may know, after the 2018 elections Democrats took control of Congress. How much would you say Democrats have accomplished since taking control of the U.S. House of Representatives?

21%Not Imp.

10%A Lot

34%Nothing At All

-20

10

62%

37%

Total

Agree Disagree

And, they believe impeachment will sidetrack them even further.

Now, I’d like to read you a few statements regarding this matter, and please tell me whether you agree or disagree with each one…. Democrats’ focus on impeachment will hurt Congress’ ability to get more important things done for the country.

21%Not Imp.

51%Strongly

11%Strongly

+25

Impeachment clearly has the potential to backlash against Democrats.

More than two-thirds of voters say this is all about politics.

11

12

68%

89%

67%

44%

29%

8%

31%

53%

Total GOP(34%)

IND(37%)

DEM(27%)

Agree Disagree

56%Strongly

20%Strongly

82%Strongly

50%Strongly

20%Strongly

31%Strongly

39%Strongly

+81+39 +36 -9

Now, I’d like to read you a few statements regarding this matter, and please tell me whether you agree or disagree with each one…. This is all about politics. Congressional Democrats should be more concerned about addressing the issues of the day like the cost of health care, fair

trade deals and keeping the economy on track. (A)

Voters say Congressional Democrats should be more concerned about addressing the issues of the day.

GOP anti-impeachment candidates hold a significant ballot advantage over pro-impeachment Democrats in these districts.

13

14 And, thinking ahead to the next election, would you be more willing to vote for: A Democratic candidate for Congress who believes that President Trump should be impeached and removed from office...or… A Republican candidate for Congress who believes that President Trump's actions do

not rise to an impeachable offense and that voters should be allowed to decide for themselves in next year's elections.

50% 53%47%

54%

42% 40% 43%38%

Total NRCC Defense(42%)

NRCC Offense(58%)

Trump Vote/DEM Held(33%)

Republican Democratic

+13+8 +4

Candidates in Trump-voting DEM districts have a clear double-digit advantage.

+16

A majority of voters believes that “assertions about Joe Biden and his son are deserving of further investigation.”

15

16

50% 48%53% 55%

41% 44%39% 37%

Total NRCC Defense(42%)

NRCC Offense(58%)

Trump Vote/DEM Held(33%)

Yes No

+4+9 +14

Voters believe that Joe Biden and his son deserve further investigation.

+18

And, regardless of how you may feel about President Trump in this case, do you believe that the assertions about Joe Biden and his son are deserving of further investigation or not?

37%Def

26%Def

38%Def

27%Def

37%Def

25%Def

39%Def

25%Def

By a wide 55%-41% margin, voters say it would be better for the country to wait for the vote next November than moving ahead with impeachment.

17

Voters to Congress: Let US decide next November.

18

41%

13%

39%

81%

37%44% 41%

55%

84%

56%

16%

60%

52% 55%

Total GOP(33%)

IND(40%)

DEM(26%)

NRCC Defense(42%)

NRCC Offense(58%)

Trump Vote/DEMHeld

(33%)

Move ahead with impeachment proceedings Wait for vote next November

-8-23

And, which do you believe would be better for the country, for Democrats in Congress to move ahead with impeachment proceedings to remove President Trump from office, or to wait for the country to vote on President Trump next November in the Presidential election?

-71-14 -17 +65 -14

Most voters believe that Democrats are trying to impeach the President NOT because of his call with the Ukrainian President, but because of “all of the things he has done in his Presidency.”

19

20 Do you believe that Congressional Democrats are trying to impeach President Trump specifically because of his inappropriate request of the Ukraine President, or because of all of the things he has done during his Presidency?

16%

7%

16%

26%

69% 70% 68% 69%

Total GOP(33%)

IND(40%)

DEM(26%)

Inappropriate Request All Things He Has Done

-63-53 -52 -43

Voters get it: Democrats’ move to impeach the President isn’t about his phone call.

Nearly two-thirds of voters agree that if Congress moves forward with impeachment, there needs to be an end date so it doesn’t interfere with the 2020 elections.

21

22

65% 68%63%

70%

31%27%

33%27%

Total NRCC Defense(42%)

NRCC Offense(58%)

Trump Vote/DEM Held(33%)

Agree Disagree

+41+34 +30

Voters don’t want the inquiry to be “open-ended.”

+43

47%Def

12%Def

50%Def

12%Def

45%Def

12%Def

48%Def

Now, I’d like to read you a few statements regarding this matter, and please tell me whether you agree or disagree with each one…. If Democrats are going to proceed, they should set a date certain to end the inquiry so it does not further politicize next year's election.

The Bottom Line

The Bottom Line

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Voters clearly believe impeachment is sidetracking the country and Congress, will keep Congress from getting anything else done, and cause even deeper partisan divisions in the country. Further, fewer than 40% of voters believe that the President’s phone call with the Ukrainian President constitutes an impeachable offense, and a wide majority want the voters to decide the President’s fate in the 2020 election rather than having Congress act to impeach.

Congressional Democrats who represent Trump districts appear to be in a precarious position here, as their voters clearly side against impeachment and are much more willing to vote for a GOP candidate opposing impeachment than a Democrat supporting it.

Neil Newhouse P a r t n e r

Phone: (703) 836-7655Email: neil@pos.orgTwitter: @KCkid