july 2, 2010

July 2, 2010

Obama Exhorts Congress to Back Immigration Overhaul

“All the NewsThat’s Fit to Print”

National Edition

By Peter Baker

WASHINGTON--In his first speech devoted entirely to immigration policy since taking office, Mr. Obama tried to navigate between what he called the two extremes of the debate, defending his efforts to strengthen border security while promoting a path to citizenship for many of the 11 million people in the United States illegally.

Strengthen border security

WASHINGTON--In his first speech devoted entirely to immigration policy since taking office, Mr. Obama tried to navigate between what he called the two extremes of the debate, defending his efforts to strengthen border security while promoting a path to citizenship for many of the 11 million people in the United States illegally.

WASHINGTON--In his first speech devoted entirely to immigration policy since taking office, Mr. Obama tried to navigate between what he called the two extremes of the debate, defending his efforts to strengthen border security while promoting a path to citizenship for many of the 11 million people in the United States illegally.

Promoting Path to Citizenship

Strengthen Border Security

Operation Gatekeeper (1994): Strengthened border security along the San Diego-Tijuana border

San Diego County

Tijuana, Mexico

Caltran began posting these signs along I-5 in early 90s after dozens of deaths

I. Strengthen Border Security

San Diego Sector Apprehensions (%)

Before 1994 402002 10.8

Operation Gatekeeper (1994): Strengthened border security along the San Diego-Tijuana border

San Diego County

Tijuana, Mexico

Caltran began posting these signs along I-5 in early 90s after dozens of deaths

The Wall

Naco Douglas

Deaths in the Arizona Desert, 2000-2004

I. Strengthen Border Security

Drug and Human Smuggling Routes

Drug and Human Smuggling Routes

Primary Smuggling Route

Drug and Human Smuggling Routes

Primary Smuggling Route

Secondary Smuggling Route

Drug and Human Smuggling Routes

Primary Smuggling Route

Secondary Smuggling Route

“Safe” Houses

Figure 1. The Rise in Border Enforcement, 1977-2003

Linewatch hours

INS Budget

Figure 2. Coyote prices, 1975-2003

Linewatch Hours

INS Budget

Coyote Prices

𝐶𝑜𝑦𝑜𝑡𝑒𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒=𝛽0+𝛽1 ∙ h𝐿𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑊𝑎𝑡𝑐 +𝜀

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 900

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Coyote Prices (1990$ per trip)

Line Watch (100,000 of hours per year)

Data: 1977-2003

𝐶𝑜𝑦𝑜𝑡𝑒𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒=210.4+13.20 h𝐿𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑊𝑎𝑡𝑐^(0.77 )

𝐶𝑜𝑦𝑜𝑡𝑒𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒=𝛽0+𝛽1 ∙ h𝐿𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑊𝑎𝑡𝑐 +𝜀

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Coyote Prices (1990$ per trip)

Line Watch (100,000 of hours per year)

Data: 1977-2003

𝐶𝑜𝑦𝑜𝑡𝑒𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒=210.4+13.20 h𝐿𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑊𝑎𝑡𝑐^(0.77 )

^𝐶𝑜𝑦𝑜𝑡𝑒𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒

S86

D86

Market for Coyote Smuggling Services (CSS), 1986-2003

Price (1990$ per trip)

Quantity

P86 = $300

Q86

P86 = $300

Q86 Q03

Market for Coyote Smuggling Services (CSS), 1986-2003

Price (1990$ per trip)

S03

S86

D86 D03

Quantity

P03 = $1200

Effects of Strengthen Border Security

• No significant reduction in illegal immigration flows.• Routes change and conditions worsen,• The cost of migrating (coyotes & other costs) increase• Migrants stay longer / less seasonal migration• Migrants increasingly bring their families

Bottom Line of economists’ research—migrants respond to changing incentives

Bottom Line of economists’ research—migrants respond to changing incentives

The Immigration EquationBy Roger Lowenstein.

The New York Times Magazine, July 9, 2006

Mannuel I.

Immigrant from Guatemala.

House Painter.

Norma M.

Immigrant from Mexico

Housecleaner.

Salvador C.

Immigrant from Mexico.

Construction.

The question of whether “more job seekers from abroad mean fewer opportunities, or lower wages, for native workers -- is one of the most controversial ideas in labor economics.”

Georgia Manicurists, 1990-2006

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 20060

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

All

Viet

Non-Viet

The Growth, Dispersion and Composition of Manicurists, 1985 to 2006

Replacement or Displacement?

Figure 10.2: Demand and Supply of Rough Laborers